The Canucks roster has elite talent, and it starts with Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes. Is the rest any good in fantasy?
Outlook
Last season:
38-37-7, 6th Pacific, 22nd overall.
3.29 GF/GP (13th), 3.61 GA/GP (25th), 22.7 PP% (11th), 71.6 PK% (32nd)
47.62 5v5 CF% (23rd), 46.81 5v5 GF% (23rd), 47.01 5v5 xGF% (25th)
The Elias Pettersson watch is officially on. The 24-year-old center will be a restricted free agent next summer and, so far, has remained non-committal about staying with the team that drafted him fifth overall in 2017 and watched him blossom into a two-way star.
There is a relatively short amount of time in which the Canucks can convince Pettersson to stay. They do not have a championship-caliber roster – not even close – and their immediate options to improve the roster are limited. Should Pettersson leave, it would create a domino effect that would affect the long-term futures of both Thatcher Demko and Quinn Hughes, both of whom are key core pieces.
But, we’re getting ahead of ourselves. Heading into the 2023-24 season, Pettersson has emerged as a potential top-5 center in the league, and he’ll pull this team up along with him. Scoring was not a problem; the Canucks ranked 13th in goals for per game and, at certain points, featured a top-10 power play.
Along with Pettersson and Hughes, J.T. Miller and Andrei Kuzmenko also proved to be top-tier scoring options. Pettersson is a first-round talent in any fantasy league format, Miller’s underrated in banger leagues with his hits, and Hughes and Kuzmenko can really light it up on special teams. That has always been one of the Canucks’ strengths – having elite scoring talent up front. It’s the rest of the roster that’s always a mess.
The Canucks have a collection of solid middle-six wingers, but there aren’t enough spots for all of them. The projected lineup below doesn’t include prospects who may make the opening night roster, including Vasily Podkolzin, Nils Höglander, Aatu Raty or Aidan McDonough, or even veteran Tanner Pearson, who played 14 games.
Brock Boeser, the most highly-regarded of them all, still hasn’t scored 30 goals and remains nothing more than a mid-round pick for added scoring depth. The rest are interchangeable pieces, players who will live on-and-off the waiver wire all season.
Defensively, the Canucks have bolstered their blueline, and that should have a positive effect on individual player production because they’ll be spending less time in their own zone. Except it’s only gone from awful to average, at best, and they will still depend heavily on Demko, who is a top-10 fantasy goalie if he can stay healthy.
Projected Lineup
Andrei Kuzmenko – Elias Pettersson – Ilya Mikheyev
Anthony Beauvillier – J.T. Miller – Brock Boeser
Teddy Blueger – Pius Suter – Conor Garland
Dakota Joshua – Nils Aman – Jack Studnicka
Quinn Hughes – Filip Hronek
Carson Soucy – Tyler Myers
Akito Hirose – Ian Cole
Thatcher Demko – Spencer Martin
PP1
Kuzmenko – Miller – Boeser – Pettersson – Hughes
PP2
Beauvillier – Suter – Mikheyev – Garland – Hronek
Player Rankings
The Hockey News Fantasy Guide Top 3 Point Projections:
Elias Pettersson, 100 points
J.T. Miller, 88 points
Quinn Hughes, 82 points
(Purchase your copy of the NHL Fantasy Guide 2023-24 to see all player projections)
Top 300 Ranked Canucks (Full List, including individual player write-ups):
12. Elias Pettersson, C
32. J.T. Miller, C/RW
70. Quinn Hughes, D
93. Thatcher Demko, G
101. Andrei Kuzmenko, LW
148. Brock Boeser, RW
200. Conor Garland, RW
213. Anthony Beauvillier, LW
240. Ilya Mikheyev, RW
248. Filip Hronek, D
Top 300 Ranked Canucks (Banger League) (Full List):
12. Elias Pettersson, C
17. J.T. Miller, C/RW
75. Quinn Hughes, D
136. Andrei Kuzmenko, LW
147. Thatcher Demko, G
167. Brock Boeser, RW
221. Filip Hronek, D
226. Conor Garland, RW
228. Anthony Beauvillier, LW
292. Ilya Mikheyev, RW
All positions courtesy Yahoo Fantasy.
Breakout Star
There are plenty of candidates, but the most important factor for a breakout season is opportunity. Höglander, Podkolzin and Raty are the three big names, but there are no guarantees any of them make the roster. They’re wasteful fantasy picks until their roster spots are assured following training camp. Raty and Podkolzin have the most offensive upside, though neither of them has a chance of playing top-six minutes.
That leaves us with Anthony Beauvillier, who enters his eighth NHL season and still has not lived up to expectations. He’s got first-line speed but no other skills that make him a scoring threat. What gives Beauvillier the fantasy edge is playing time, and he’ll get top-six minutes playing next to Miller. Beauvillier’s coming off a career-high 40-point season, and in 33 games with the Canucks scored at a 50-point rate. However, it speaks to the Canucks’ lack of upside when one of their best-case scenarios is hoping a middle-six left winger busts out after 490 NHL games.
The other alternative is Ilya Mikheyev, who will surely set career highs playing next to Pettersson. Both players will top out at around 50 points.
Regression Candidate
Stats nerds will pound the drum on Andrei Kuzmenko. The KHL import was a star in his home league, and in his first season in the NHL converted an absurd 27.3 percent of his shots to score 39 goals. Nobody does that – not even the league’s best shooters.
Sure, some of these were easy tap-ins as a result of a brilliant passing play, but this will be Kuzmenko’s second year, and defenses will surely adjust. He won’t get the same kind of looks and he was benched multiple times last season for lackluster two-way play, and the lack of ice time will surely hurt his production as well.
Factoring in a regression for Kuzmenko puts him closer to the cadre of 30-goal scorers available in the middle rounds, and there’s no need to reach for him as early as some of the other potential 40-goal scorers, such as Alex DeBrincat or Timo Meier.
Goalies
Demko’s .920 SP in the final two months of the season was another showcase of his ability to be a game-changing goalie. With him in net, the Canucks are a legit playoff contender since he can cover up their defensive mistakes and steal a game or two. He’s a fantastic goalie in fantasy because he has the rare ability to rack up wins and a ton of saves.
It’s just too bad that he’s been very injury-prone over the past few seasons. It’s hard to draft Demko and expect him to anchor your goaltending because scrambling for a replacement seems inevitable, and it’s at this point you end up picking up Elvis Merzlikins and swear you never play fantasy hockey again. The range of outcomes for Demko is vast simply due to playing time.
Spencer Martin showed flashes of being a capable backup but he was horrendous last season and ceded playing time to Collin Delia. Should Demko get injured, the name to remember is Arturs Silovs, who will begin the season as their AHL starter. The 22-year-old backstopped Latvia to a thrilling bronze-medal finish against the heavily-favoured U.S. at the World Championships this past summer. It was the first medal Latvia had ever won, and so momentous was their achievement that members of parliament convened Sunday night to declare the following day a national holiday.