The aging Capitals are trying to fit one more Cup into the Alex Ovechkin era. Which veterans and bounce-back players will they be leaning on?

Outlook

Last season:
35-37-10, 6th Metro, 25th overall.
3.09 GF/GP (20th), 3.18 GA/GP (18th), 21.2 PP% (16th), 81.9 PK% (11th)
49.78 5v5 CF% (18th), 48.73 5v5 GF% (22nd), 49.65 5v5 xGF% (19th)

It says a lot about the Capitals when one of their biggest off-season moves was hiring Spencer Carbery to squeeze more out of their power play, which ranked 16th last season, and get Alex Ovechkin that much closer to Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goals record.

This is a team whose Stanley Cup window is either fading, or already closed without anybody realizing it. Only one player (Dylan Strome) in their projected top six will be under 30 years old by the end of the 2023-24 season, and they’re counting on two of their top-six wingers, Tom Wilson and Max Pacioretty, and their top defenseman, John Carlson, to bounce back from major injuries.

Ovechkin remains the ageless wonder, a truly generational talent and arguably the best goal scorer has ever seen, making him a valuable fantasy option. His hits and shot volume have faded a little in recent seasons, and he’s no longer a clear-cut first-round pick in most fantasy leagues.

The quality of fantasy options after Ovechkin dives off a cliff. Evgeny Kuznetsov’s inconsistency is frustrating and scored just five points in his final 20 games of the season. Unless he builds a lot of goodwill with Carbery quickly, his ice time is threated by both Nicklas Backstrom and Strome. Kuznetsov is a risky proposition, and his upside in one category - assists - isn't good enough to cover his lack of coverage in other categories. 

Wilson (torn ACL), Pacioretty (torn Achilles), Carlson (fractured skull) and Backstrom (chronic hip) are uncertain bets due to their recent health. They're all risky in that regard.

Wilson has some value in banger leagues if he can get back to 20 goals with his ability to rack up 200-plus hits a season. Pacioretty has elite goal-scoring ability, except most seasons he's been an IR stash. Carlson's age and recent injury work against him in a league that is now flush with young defensemen, and there's little need to reach for him early in drafts. It was encouraging to see Backstrom on the ice last season, but he's a borderline top-six center at this stage of his career.

Strome’s upside is around 60 points at the deepest position in fantasy without the peripheral stats to make up for it. Rasmus Sandin’s upside is likely capped with Carlson returning to the lineup.

It's hard to get excited about the Caps in fantasy, and in most cases, other than Ovechkin, you'll be picking them up in the middle to late rounds of your fantasy draft in the hopes of getting some value out of them. 

Projected Lineup

Alex Ovechkin – Dylan Strome – Tom Wilson
Sonny Milano – Evgeny Kuznetsov – Anthony Mantha
Max Pacioretty – Nicklas Backstrom – T.J. Oshie
Aliaksei Protas – Nic Dowd – Nicolas Aubé-Kubel

Martin Fehervary – John Carlson
Rasmus Sandin – Nick Jensen
Joel Edmundson – Trevor van Riemsdyk

Darcy Kuemper – Charlie Lindgren

PP1
Ovechkin – Strome – Oshie – Backstrom - Carlson
PP2
Pacioretty – Kuznetsov – Wilson – Mantha – Sandin

Player Rankings

The Hockey News Fantasy Guide Top 3 Point Projections:
Alex Ovechkin, 81 points
Evgeny Kuznetsov, 73 points
John Carlson, 68 points
Dylan Strome, 68 points

(Purchase your copy of the NHL Fantasy Guide 2023-24 to see all player projections)

Top 300 Ranked Capitals (Full List, including write-ups):
34. Alex Ovechkin, LW
91. Darcy Kuemper, G
110. John Carlson, D
125. Evgeny Kuznetsov, C
142. Max Pacioretty, LW
150. Dylan Strome, C
181. Tom Wilson, RW
217. Nicklas Backstrom, C
276. T.J. Oshie, RW

Top 300 Ranked Capitals (Banger League) (Full List):
18. Alex Ovechkin, LW
105. John Carlson, D
108. Tom Wilson, RW
132. Evgeny Kuznetsov, C
143. Darcy Kuemper, G
169. Max Pacioretty, LW
182. Dylan Strome, C
239. T.J. Oshie, RW
260. Nicklas Backstrom, C
283. Rasmus Sandin, D

Breakout Star

The Caps aren’t in a position to plug in rookies and hope for the best. They need to win, and they need to win now as Ovechkin turns 38 in September, and he has two years remaining on his contract. It seems disingenuous to pick Anthony Mantha, the hulking 6-foot-5 goal scorer to break out at 28 years old after failing to stay healthy and live up to his potential for much of his career.

That leaves Connor McMichael, the one of seven players the Caps have picked in the first round since 2010 who has remained with the team. McMichael played 68 games with the Caps in his rookie season but spent most of the previous season with AHL Hershey, helping them win the Calder Cup. He’s NHL-ready, but will likely play lower in the lineup as a left winger and will not be fantasy-relevant for 2023-24.

Regression Candidate

It’s difficult to pick a regression candidate when half the team was injured and only one player other than Ovechkin scored more than 20 goals. As such, there is no obvious candidate, but we should temper our excitement on Rasmus Sandin. In Carlson’s absence, Sandin was excellent filling in on the power play, and finished the season with 15 points in 19 games with the Caps while averaging over 22 minutes per game.

Carlson is expected to be healthy to star the season, relegating Sandin back to PP2 status and our expectations must be adjusted accordingly.

Goalies

Darcy Kuemper’s first season with the Caps didn’t go so well, and they’re locked in for four more seasons with his modified no-trade clause. He finished with a losing record for just the third time in his career, and his fantasy value will be derived mostly from his workload. Charlie Lindgren was largely disappointing as one of the highest-paid backups, and none of the other four goalies under contract with the Caps have seen a minute of NHL action.

Kuemper is ranked just outside the top 10 in my pre-season rankings though it’s very possible he finishes far lower. The Caps defense does not boast any elite defenders other than Carlson, and Kuemper finished 35th out of 55 goalies last season in total goals saved above average at 5-on-5, according to naturalstattrick.com. He’s a depth goalie in most fantasy leagues and doesn’t possess enough upside to even potentially anchor any rosters.