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    Connor Doyle
    Connor Doyle
    Dec 14, 2024, 01:54
    Credit: © Brad Penner-Imagn - Kings Top Line Trio Remains an Enigma

    The Kings have always had a go-to top line center, or at least it feels like they have. Anze Kopitar has held it down for almost two decades through an elite 200-foot work ethic. Throughout his time centering the top line, he's had only a few fixtures on the wing.

    Dustin Brown was one of, if not his most frequent linemate over Kopitar’s career. He also had Justin Williams and Marian Gaborik for long stretches to complete that line. Later, Alex Iafallo owned the spot for a few seasons before Adrian Kempe became Kopitar’s most recent permanent linemate.

    While Kempe has locked down one of the flanks next to Kopitar, the other wing has been a revolving door of players. Quinton Byfield looked excellent in the season and a half there, but as the heir apparent to Kopitar, he's been thrusted into the center role full-time this season.

    The Duo of Kopitar and Kempe has been the best on the roster, which is vindicated by their combined 22 goals, 38 assists, 60 points, and a plus +28. In 29 games, there's very little to complain about from those two. However, they have yet to find a full-time third member of that line.

    The two have seen Alex Laferriere, Trevor Moore, and Alex Turcotte as the third member for various stretches of the season. The amount of production has swayed Moore's way, but the underlying analytics and overarching theme for the future favor Turcotte.

    While not favorable analytically, the line has produced the most with Moore. Via NaturalStatTrick, in 79:18 minutes together, the trio of Moore, Kopitar, and Kempe has outscored the opposition 6-2. Their other numbers, however, are cause for concern. Their Corsi is a sub-average 44.03%, they are outshot 40-31 and outmatched scoring chances for and against 45-27. In other words, while looking at the part sometimes on the scoresheet, this line should not be a top-line trio together long term.

    With Turcotte, on the other hand, they've been just as productive but have also yielded with favorable analytics. The three have outscored opponents 4-1 with a 54.81% on Corsi. They've outshot opponents 31-27 and outmatched their scoring chances against 35-32. The three have done all this without allowing a high-danger goal against them.

    Laferriere has had a fine season, but his 39:57 on the top line hasn't resulted in exponential proof that he's not quite ready for full-time top-line status. Yes, they've outscored opponents 3-1, but their Corsi is 46.05%, outshot 20-17, while sawed out scoring chances-wise 19-18.

    Turcotte should follow the same path that Byfield forged a season ago, where he broke out to get 20g-35a-55 points. Byfield did so by playing on the wing next to Kopitar and Kempe. The latter, in fact, also broke out when applying the same logic. In the first year Kempe was committed to the top line, he broke out with 35 goals.

    This has not been a magic formula concocted from sacrificial lambs to some off-distant realm. It's a straightforward and direct way that has proven to help these highly touted and high draft picks of the Kings take the next step toward their potential.

    If there's anyone who needed the next step to come now and, in a hurry, it's the injury-worn Turcotte, who was drafted a year before Byfield, with almost just as much draft hype (5th overall - 2019). It's not as if this is a massive risk, either. Yes, the Trevor Lewis injury forces Turcotte to possibly play center, but then why Samuel Helenius? Why go with the 11-7, where Turcotte has been playing wing.

    It is time for the Kings to solidify their top line with a plan that is proven to work and simultaneously complements their future blueprint.