Credit © Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn ImagesEL SEGUNDO, CA — While neither blatantly bad nor even good, the Los Angeles Kings are exactly what a 23-19-14 team looks like. They cannot win games in regulation, tied for second-fewest in the league with Chicago and St. Louis, with 19 regulation wins overall. They are on pace to break the league record for games going past regulation in one season. Their overall goal differential is -15.
While still a strong possession team (6th in both Fenwick and Corsi at EVs), their +4 goal differential at even strength represents a massive gap from the EVs production of years past (last season the Kings led the league at a +53 at EVs). Their stingy defensive play, particularly at EVs, along with a uniquely poor run of play this season in their division, has put them within playoff reach.
While not a ringing endorsement of the club, a bottom-line-up-front premise that this team, much like the 2014-15 team, is set to lose the season with a handful of games left. A move, if not a couple, would boost this club out of scoring purgatory, and that’s where Kenny Holland comes in.
The team finally added some constrained, rather pure optimism for this club. Deftly taking advantage of particularly souring situations like some of Rob Blake’s moves of old (Kevin Fiala out of the buyout situation in Minnesota, Phillip Danault free agency fallout from mismanagement in Montreal), Holland was able to marquee his early-on tenure with a splash signing of Artemi Panarin, who by most accounts, is a bona fide top-10 winger in the game. Panarin led the Rangers in scoring the last six seasons, including a 120-point year two seasons ago.
Prior to the trade, the Kings did not have a top-50 scorer in the league, which would be Kempe at 64th with 46 points (EVs leader on the Kings in league rankings at 89th overall). Now they have Panarin, who is ranked 28th with 57 points (19th at EVs production).
Now there’s a player who could change the direction of a franchise, despite the age (34). That certainly doesn't solidify the notion that the Kings are a contender; it only boosts them toward playoff contention, not toward being a legitimate Cup contender. There’s still a defensive core that remains incredibly suspect, off-year wingers, and a scoring slump top to bottom.
Their core has 23 combined goals, 36 if you include the hybrid project of Alex Laferriere, but by all means, 23 is their actual number. That level of production ties into the defensive core's inability, but we will get into that in the rest of the article. Production depression over time from this group has gradually ground down the wing's capacity, which has also been handicapped outside the play of Adrian Kempe, who, despite the disparaging 56 games to this point, is still well within reach of scoring 30 goals. Kevin Fiala is also just right there, with 18 goals.
The disappointment certainly starts from the future 1C in Quinton Byfield, who, after last season's breakout and finish, looked to be primed to establish himself amongst the top 15-20 centers in the league. 56 games in, I don't think he is close to that number. He’s on pace for right around 16-28-44. That’s a massive step back from his pre-season trajectory. Given that he should get Panarin, the breadman on his flank, since Kempe will likely continue to be the speed on the wing with the slowing-down veteran in Kopitar, Byfield should get closer to the 50-55+ point range, which still stings in terms of expected production.
The move slides down a couple of players in a good place. The Alex Turcotte, Fiala, and Andrei Kuzmenko line should be reunited. In 144:37 minutes this season via NaturalStatTrick, the trio has a 59.7% Corsi and a 58.7% Fenwick. They outshoot the opposition 73-48, outscore 7-5, and outchance 96-58. Additionally, high danger chances are 43-19 and 6-1 in favor of the trio.
That would leave some players to move around, specifically with Laferriere, who may be a long-term project to convert to center, but for a ‘cup contender’ to have an in-season project to fill a center bind outside of the 4C has strayed from logical thought. Laferriere must go back to wing when Turcotte regains his health, giving the Kings a properly balanced top line with Byfield and Panarin. Though it is thought-provoking to have Corey Perry, the Worm, on that line, as a big body, power forward aspect, while providing a raucous presence in front of the net. This frees up Joel Armia, who is one of the few bright spots in LA this season, to be assigned to a shutdown line.
Given these options, it still leaves a floating assortment of Trevor Moore, Armia, Samuel Helenius, and Warren Foegele. Foegele’s name was mentioned on the Kings' most recent broadcast on TNT, with Holland bringing his name up right after being asked if more moves were coming. Foegele was 19th in the league last season with 22 EVs goals, while this year he only has six in 43 games.
Helenius would be a penciled-in 4C, but as Holland was asked on that broadcast, I don't think he’s done. He will have to try to leverage his depreciating, limited assets left to secure a center. The Kings will certainly have a decent scoring line with Panarin attached to Byfield’s wing, but an average one with Kopitar. I see a strong sample size with Turcotte having Fiala and Kuzmenko, but that would mean three lines I don't see as go-to matchups (Phillip Danault’s exit has not been replaced in that regard). Which would mean Byfield would have to continue to assume these duties since long term, a 38-year-old in Kopitar should not be handling these top matchups.
So, the Kings should land on the spectrum of applicable centermen out there, ranging from Nazem Kadri, Charlie Coyle, Elias Pettersson, and Vincent Trocheck. The latter two are going to come at a high price, while Coyle represents a most likely candidate. In a perfect world, if they land say Coyle, that still doesn't fix their defensive core.
The Kings have practically five players of the same type on the backend. Mikey Anderson, Brian Dumoulin, Joel Edmundson, Cody Ceci, and Drew Doughty. Doughty, a former Norris favorite in his 20’s, had slid into the realm of ‘only known for defense ' at this point in his career. He has yet to score a PPG this season, a big reason for his re-assignment to the second unit. That doesn't stop his top usage, though his heir apparent, Brandt Clarke, represents the only player on the backend who can properly handle the puck and be a legitimate threat in the offensive zone. Clarke has risen to a 19:10 average TOI, putting him third among the most utilized defenseman on the backend—this is progress.
As promised, we would tie in the center and goal scoring drop-off. These defenseman have needed more help than other d-cores. Centers essentially act as insurance in the defensive zone, and five of these defenseman need assistance on a shift-by-shift basis to dig pucks out along the boards, or scramble to fix their unclean outlets and flung-off-the-wall pucks. The wingers can't stretch the ice out since the safe play, and really only play for five defenseman, is to reset the ice and go station-to-station, letting the defense settle into a stronger defensive position, forcing an up-ice dump-in rather than a controlled entry. Even with a controlled entry after a station-to-station defensive pair reset, the opposition remains in a more formidable position to defend against an attack.
Their transition game is rather nonexistent in most games, as the defense core lacks the footspeed and offensive capacity to take those risks. Most of the offense, from low to high, is thrown through traffic, looking for a low-risk play that keeps zone time going. There isn’t cross seam attacks or high-end vision shown, which is exactly reflected in the drop off in primary assists after Clarke’s 16, which is one less than the combined 17 from the rest of the group. Dumoulin has five; Doughty, the number one deployed, had four through 48 games. Anderson also has four, Edmundson has three, and Ceci, through 56 games, has one.
It all makes sense now, right? The Kings can stay in games and hang on, playing not to lose instead of to win. Safe is the Hiller way, and it has to be this way with the complete ineptitude of their defensive core. They have to play to their strengths, and in that limited capacity, it's safe plays and playing without the puck. Station-to-station, outlets towards the boards, because connecting to a player in center ice is just too risky for these defensemen.
Make a move for a defenseman? Not likely, this seems, or, rephrased, going to take a heck of a lot of creativity from Holland. Foegele can now be dangeled, that or Moore, due to the excess forwards in the wake of Panarin. That still means a defenseman has to go the other way. The top four are somewhat safe: Doughty-Anderson and Clarke-Edmundson. Dumoulin has been bearable, while Ceci has not. Ceci has an ugly contract value (4.5), an ugly term (through 2028-29), and a modified NMC (10-team NM).
The Kings are likely to sit pretty (despite the visual) with their D-core and hope a center upgrade puts them in a position to play past their clear deficiency on the backend.
FORWARDS
Panarin-Byfield-Perry Speed down the middle, 1A line
Laferriere-Kopitar-Kempe Speed on the wings, 2A
Fiala-Turcotte-Kuzmenko Speed down the middle/LW, 2B (avoids opp top six)
Moore-[acqCenter]-Armia Purely Shutdown, with transitional/possession capacity
DEFENSE
Doughty-Anderson Purely Shutdown, with struggling transition capacity
Clarke-Edmundson Hedges play on one player, quality pair nonetheless
Ceci-Dumoulin Station-to-station only; more special teams than EVs
There you have it.
There is work to be done down the middle, with the defensive core having a very uneasy precedence over the overall schematic. This is a team indeed sliding into the Olympic break with two awful games, losing three in a row, and they will have to get on a little bit of a roll.
Keep in mind that when a major move occurs, it jars the rest of the league into making corresponding moves to market the situation correctly.
A playoff team is starting to form, but there are 26 games left to determine whether or not it is confirmed. As of right now, they are still highly suspect until we see the Hiller-coached Panarin play.