Wild’s defensive strategy clashes with Avalanche’s explosive offense. Can control and match-ups neutralize MacKinnon’s scoring prowess?
ST. PAUL, Minn. — The Minnesota Wild (22-9-5) has been nearly flawless for six weeks. Since Nov. 7, they’re 17-2-2 and rolling through opponents. They face the Colorado Avalanche (25-2-7) for a huge matchup tonight.
Colorado’s top line of Artturi Lehkonen, Nathan MacKinnon, and Martin Necas presents a problem every coaching staff has to solve differently.
By the numbers, it’s the NHL’s most dangerous trio at five-on-five, ranking first in expected goals for and generating roughly four expected goals per 60 minutes. That’s not just speed and skill, it’s volume, pace, and sustained pressure.
MacKinnon, 30, leads the league in goals with 28 and is tied for first with McDavid in points with 59. Necas has 15 goals and 46 points in 34 games and Lehkonen has 13 goals and 29 points in 34 games.
Not to mention, the Devon Toews-Cale Makar pairing is first in the NHL in expected goals for among other defense pairs.
For Minnesota, the answer likely isn’t chasing offense, but controlling matchups. They did it on Saturday against the Edmonton Oilers against Connor McDavid and tonight will likely be the same game plan.
If Wild head coach John Hynes wants to slow the game down, the data points clearly to one forward combination.
The trio of Marcus Johansson, Joel Eriksson Ek and Matt Boldy ranks third in the league in fewest expected goals against among lines with significant minutes together. That group has shown an ability to absorb heavy shifts, win back pucks below the dots, and force opponents to play on the outside. Exactly what coaches look for against elite transition teams.
Behind them, the Jonas Brodin–Jared Spurgeon pairing offers another layer of control. In limited usage, they rank third in fewest expected goals against among defensive pairs. More importantly, they manage risk, clean first passes, tight gaps, and fewer extended-zone breakdowns.
This isn’t about shutting MacKinnon down completely, that rarely happens. It’s about reducing his line’s efficiency, forcing longer shifts, and making Colorado work for every inch. That’s coaching hockey, not highlight hockey.
All data from MoneyPuck.com.
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