One year from now, Matthew Schaefer will be one year away from becoming a restricted free agent on July 1, 2028.
Based on the events of this summer, most notably Leo Carlsson signing a behemoth offer sheet with the Philadelphia Flyers, the New York Islanders will be looking to lock Schaefer up as quickly as possible, starting on July 1, 2027.
Schaefer, 18, won the Calder Trophy for the league's best rookie following a 23-goal, 59-point rookie season as a defenseman that shattered any and all expectations of him entering the season.
The generational rookie not only exceeded on the ice, but has completely won over everyone around the organization with who he is off the ice.
Thursday morning, news broke that the Colorado Avalanche and Cale Makar are closing in on a long-term contract extension that's going to be a "biggie."
The contract will likely cause concern in some parts of the Islanders' world as people start calculating what Schaefer could cost over the long term.
However, it's not the best comparison. For starters, Makar is the best defenseman in the NHL as it stands, and his contract covers only UFA years. That raises the bar, price-wise.
Schaefer's extension will have to cover five years of RFA years before he even approaches UFA years.
The big thing to pay attention to right now will be the percentage of the cap that Makar signs for. That's what agents point to, and with a rapidly expanding cap, that's where a future Schaefer contract would be pointed toward.
Schaefer also made it clear that he's not exactly looking to maximize his dollar value, that remaining on Long Island is far and away his #1 priority:
Frankly, the final dollar count does not matter. If you look at how the Islanders' salary cap situation is set up, they're set up to essentially hand Schaefer a blank check next summer.
The following contracts are expired by July 1, 2028 (when Schaefer's extension would kick in):
Brayden Schenn, $6.5 Million AAV (2028 UFA)
Ondrej Palat, $6 Million AAV (2027 UFA)
Kyle Palmieri, $4.75 Million AAV (2027 UFA)
Tony DeAngelo, $4 Million AAV (2028 UFA)
Semyon Varlamov, $2.75 Million AAV (2027 UFA)
Casey Cizikas $2.5 Million AAV (2027 UFA)
That's $26.5 million cleared, or, put another way, 25.48% of the current cap hit charges against the New York Islanders.
Only one player on the roster will hold full trade protection on July 1, 2028, and that's Alexander Romanov, who has a full no-trade clause kick in on July 1, 2027.
Everyone else on the roster would be movable if needed.
The Islanders know what they're building toward, and there should be no need for any anxiety surrounding this situation. It's still a full year away, and the business side will get taken care of.
