Islanders Have Two Major Contract Extension Decisions To Make This Summer

How high will Noah Dobson's annual cap hit go on his new deal? Should the Islanders trade Brock Nelson or sign him to an extension?

The New York Islanders have many decisions to make this summer, with 13 free agents and a few players who will be eligible to sign contract extensions. 

There are two big-time players who will enter 2024-25 in the final year of their contract, and the Islanders will have to decide if they are going to  

Noah Dobson, 24, who finished the season with 70 points (10 goals, 60 assists) in 79 games before one assist in the playoffs, will be eligible to sign a contract extension on July 1. 

He's due for a hefty pay raise on the books for one more year at a more-than-reasonable annual cap hit of $4 million. 

According to Jeff Marek of the 32 Thoughts podcast, Dobson's eight-year extension could be worth as much as $8 million annually. 

While Dobson kept himself in the Norris Trophy conversation for most of the season, his play did fade late into the regular season and in the first round---perhaps due to fatigue or a lingering injury, which Dobson said affected him before the playoffs began. 

Still, Dobson is a cornerstone of the blueline and needs to be signed long-term. 

The problem is the cap: Defenseman Alexander Romanov, 24, will also need a contract at or before the end of next season, and if the Islanders want to make a long-term addition (say, to Bo Horvat and Mathew Barzal's line), Dobson's deal could complicate things. 

Much to ponder for general manager Lou Lamoriello and Co.

"He's growing every year," Lamoriello said regarding Dobson. "Like every other young player, there's no ceiling to his potential. The sky is the limit."

The Islanders understand that a few years ago, they could have locked Dobson up long-term but ultimately decided to go with the bridge deal. 

Now, it will cost them much more annually, but if Dobson continues to excel, that annual value is only going to keep rising, so locking him in, even at $8 million a year, makes sense. 

That leads us to another player eligible for a contract extension. 

Like Dobson, Brock Nelson is a cornerstone of the Islanders. 

He is their most consistent goal-scorer, potting 30 or more goals for a third straight season (34 goals, 35 assists), and provides valuable center depth, among many other things. 

It would be crazy to trade him, right? 

Maybe. 

Nelson would bring back a lot in a trade, but if the Islanders were to consider a trade offer for their most prolific scorer, it would have to be one they could not refuse. 

Lamoriello is known for making "hockey trades," which benefit both parties, and he mentioned at the end-of-season presser that he and head coach Patrick Roy will discuss the lineup going forward. 

If Roy deems a change necessary and Lamoriello finds a "hockey trade," even a core piece like Nelson could be moved—although it is unlikely. 

This will be something to monitor as the Islanders progress into the offseason.

Here's the reality of the "Trade Brock Nelson" narrative. 

Nelson has a modified no-trade clause, a 16-team no-trade list, so that's one thing New York would need to work out. 

The second thing is that if the Islanders trade Nelson, they are not getting a 30-goal scorer back, which means that other players in the lineup will need to pick up that production.

Picks and prospects being the likely return, that doesn't necessarily make the Islanders better in 2024-25 or even the year after, and although a retool is needed, there isn't time to waste with Horvat and Barzal in their prime. 

If the Islanders were to trade Nelson, they might as well start moving other players and truly blow this thing up, which they likely will not be doing. 

Nelson, 32, makes $6 million annually, so it wouldn't be a shock to see an extension on a three-year deal come in at $6 to $6.5 million annually, as one would expect him to take a discount to stay. 

"I haven't really thought about it," Nelson said on signing an extension this summer. "I mean, this is all I've known. I love it here. I love living on the island. My family loves it. I love this group."

Following the 2024-25 season, the Islanders will have four pending unrestricted free agents (Nelson, Kyle Palmieri, Julien Gauthier, and Hudson Fasching) and three pending restricted free agents (Dobson, Romanov, and Samuel Bolduc). 

It's clear who on this list would be the Islanders priorities, but decisions will have to made sooner than later, especially if New York wants to bring in talent -- another contract - this summer to bolster the club. 

Kai Russell contributed to this story.