Islanders' Horvat Getting the Barzal Treatment
Since Mathew Barzal went down on Feb. 18, Bo Horvat hasn't looked the same offensively.
He has no goals in his last 11 games and just two in the 15 games that Barzal has missed, with only one coming at five-on-five.
Losing a dynamic playmaker will impact the production of a goal scorer. Although Horvat came to the Islanders with 31 goals, only two of them were unassisted, something to keep in mind as we move forward here.
Alongside Barzal, Horvat averaged 3.5 scoring chances per game at five-on-five, with 2.60 shots per game. Without Barzal, Horvat is averaging 2.06 scoring chances per game, with 2.46 shots per game, per NaturalStatrick.com.
In Barzal's absence, Islanders head coach Lane Lambert has tried to find an answer in the top right-wing role, but nothing has seemed to be a short-term solution.
Simon Holmstrom failed to take the chance and run with it, as his struggles in three games up top led to him being a healthy scratch Saturday night.
Josh Bailey came in for Holmstrom, but was demoted from the top line to the fourth line halfway through the 2-0 loss to the Buffalo Sabres.
He's had countless opportunities on the top line throughout the season and with Horvat but has not made the most of those chances.
Matt Martin, Hudson Fasching, and Cal Clutterbuck also got opportunities, but they are not top-line players, and that's not a knock on their skill level. All three play a brand of hockey that fits a bottom-six role, which they play well.
We will get to Pierre Engvall in a minute.
But like we saw with Barzal this past year and in years past, Horvat will need to find a way to produce individually, and here's why.
Despite Horvat's offensive struggles, the Islanders have found a way to win games.
Although a 6-4-1 record over the Islanders' last 11 games doesn't jump off the screen, they've outscored their opponent 36-30, averaging 3.27 goals per game.
In the wins, especially during their three-game winning streak before these last two brutal losses, the Islanders received secondary, tertiary, and quaternary scoring.
Lambert's been able to run four lines, more or less, and it seems that he is not willing to break up his "second" and "third line" right now to help Horvat out with a more skilled winger.
And it's hard to disagree with what Lambert is doing.
Although Engvall did get an opportunity in Barzal's spot upon his arrival from Toronto, it took him a few games before he got comfortable in the system. Now he is on a mission most nights, using his exploding speed to create opportunities and score goals.
Engvall has positively impacted Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri, as the threesome has combined for nine goals at five-on-five over their last five games.
For that reason, Lambert can't separate that threesome.
Zach Parise has been red-hot, with goals in four straight games heading into Saturday's contest before the shutout. Linemate Jean-Gabriel Pageau has assisted on three of them, with Hudson Fasching assisting on one.
Fasching has points in four of the last five games, with two goals and two assists.
Pageau has two goals and four assists over his last six since returning from injury.
As Stitch said, "No touchy."
Although it took Cal Clutterbuck a bit to resettle into the lineup after missing 20 games, that fourth line has played to its identity, with the grizzled veteran sniping two goals against the Maple Leafs last Tuesday.
Yes, they have dropped their last two games in poor fashion. While they could have used goals from their leading goal-scorer, the losses don't fall on Horvat alone.
Horvat is a goal scorer, and despite the lack of a stable right winger right now, he's failed to do one part of his job.
And the lack of production hasn't come from a lack of chances.
Over the last 11 games, Horvat has led the Islanders with 32 shots and is second in individual scoring chances with 25. He's been stoned a few times, but he'd tell you he should have a handful over that stretch.
So do the advance stats, which show an Individual Expected Goals For (ixG) of three over that stretch at five-on-five, 3.89 at all strengths.
The good news for Horvat is that Barzal, per teammate hints, will return this season at some point.
The schedule gets more challenging for the Islanders, who face the New Jersey Devils, Washington Capitals, and Tampa Bay Lightning over their next three games.
With the season hanging in the balance and this next stretch so critical in their push to the postseason, this is when the Islanders need to see their best players raise their game and find that extra gear.
Bo Horvat was brought here to be a difference-maker on the Islanders' playoff push, and besides the lack of goals, he's been a playoff hero with the hats he wears on a night-to-night basis, especially with Barzal out and during Pageau's absence.
But he was brought in because of his offense, and after two losses, two games in which he wasn't at his best, the Islanders need him to find his game, find that confidence, and beat some netminders.
Scoring 36 goals at the NHL level is no accident.