Did The Senators Actually Improve This Season? And What Has To Happen Now?

The Ottawa Senators completed their garbage day, exit interviews, and media scrums a couple of months earlier than everyone had hoped this season.

After a valiant climb from last place in the division in January to a playoff spot in April, Sens Nation was dreaming of a long postseason run and celebrations on Sens Mile.

After a humbling 4-0 sweep at the hands of the Carolina Hurricanes, it became clear that there were still lessons to be learned before this group was going to be a threat to win hockey's Holy Grail.

To their credit, the Senators got themselves into a playoff position after Game 80 by overtaking the Boston Bruins for wildcard one, but the point left on the table in Game 81 against New Jersey may have cost the Senators a more favourable first-round match-up.

The key questions to be answered are simple.

     1. Did the Senators take steps forward after qualifying for the playoffs in 2025?

It would be easy to say no, having been swept this year and having lost in six the previous year.

However, aside from the obvious 99 points versus 97 the year before, most of the statistical information points to an upward trend.

In fact, were it not for unstable goaltending up until Linus Ullmark’s return in late January, the Senators most likely would have been top three in the Atlantic Division.

The Senators made their biggest strides at five-on-five, particularly defensively. Travis Green and his staff have implemented a 200-foot game and earned the group’s buy-in. The lack of structure that characterized the DJ Smith era appears to be a thing of the past.

The problem facing the Senators was that their first-round opponent had made these same strides years ago.

Green even said in his post-game interview after Game 4 that he felt the Senators played better in the playoffs this season than they did against Toronto.

This also checks out, as goals saved above expected had the Hurricanes and Senators ranked first and second after four games of the first round. Conversely, goals scored above expected over those four games ranked them in reverse, with the Senators last and the Hurricanes second last.

Like the Sens, the Canes also had goaltending issues throughout the year. Freddie Andersen and Linus Ullmark had similar regular seasons. But both brought their A games in round one, as did their penalty killing units, and the series became a lesson in how to get a lead and suffocate the opponent’s time and space.

This may have been a sweep, and the better team may have won, but as Rod Brind'Amour said last year after being swept by the Panthers, it was not a 4-0 series. The margin of victory was thin.

The Senators faced a much different opponent in round one this season. Carolina is a team playing in its eighth consecutive playoff with the same head coach and several core players such as Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, Jordan Staal, and Jacob Slavin being there the entire run.

The Canes have learned from their painful lessons, just as the Senators need to learn from theirs. Ottawa made some huge strides this year… as a regular-season team.

     2. What has to happen to continue moving forward?

Now that the Senators have shown that they can get to the dance, how do they make inroads once they get there?

Goaltending

If the Senators learned anything from this season, it should be at the goaltending position. Most people, myself included, felt that Leevi Meriläinen was ready to be a full-time NHL goalie and that the Senators' crease was going to be their strong point this season.

But no contingency plan was put in place, and when it became clear that Meriläinen needed more development, there was no rainy-day plan to get through the rough patch.

That mistake can’t happen twice.

Though goaltending and penalty killing were the best parts of the Senators’ playoff appearance this season, they were also the reason the Senators were scrambling to make the playoffs rather than positioning themselves for home-ice advantage and a lesser opponent.

Offensive Output

Obviously, another pure goal scorer would be helpful. However, Carolina, like Ottawa, had only two 30-goal scorers this season.

Balanced scoring is critical, and the Senators have it. Salvation lies within.

The key is to have Stutzle, Tkachuk, Batherson, Pinto, Cozens, and Greig all take steps forward in their production. There is no reason to think this group can’t do more, and rather than trying to shake things up, they need to double down on the core and fortify around it.

When the Senators were bounced in four straight by the Leafs in 2001, there were cries that Daniel Alfredsson was possibly not the leader the team needed. Two years later, the Senators were within a goal of getting to the Stanley Cup Final.

Stability

Obviously, the Senators can’t run the same roster back next season. However, steps need to be taken in the offseason to keep most of the unit intact.

It starts with the RFAs and UFAs.

Jordan Spence – he's the priority. Nick Jensen, another UFA, likely won't return, so his $4.05 million salary might completely cover Spence's new deal. Spence emerged as a huge minute-eater in March, and his metrics are outstanding.

In addition to Jensen, Claude Giroux, Lars Eller, and Nick Cousins are all UFAs this summer, and these will be Staios’ toughest decisions.

All of them played well this season. None made an impact in the postseason.

Giroux is non-committal about playing next season, and the role he would fill will likely determine whether he continues. Would he accept a fourth-line role with penalty killing and face-offs? Who would backfill higher in the lineup when injuries struck?

If the Senators are going to take a step forward, those are the types of conversations that will need to be had.

The following players are entering the final years of their contracts before reaching UFA status and should be extended in the summer, if possible:

Artem Zub – an integral part of the defence, and the Senators felt his absence in the series as much as they did Jake Sanderson’s.

Drake Batherson – he is emerging from a very team-friendly contract ($4.975 million AAV) and will be looking for a sizeable raise. Before he registers another 30+ goal season, it would behoove Steve Staios to be proactive here.

Mike Amadio – he is also emerging from a very team-friendly contract ($2.6 million) and just had a career season (35 points). He won’t command a huge raise, but he's worth every penny of what he makes today and fits perfectly with what Green is trying to do.

Nikolas Matinpalo and Warren Foegele also expire after next season. While both have value, they don’t fit the urgent-need criteria.

Extending these players and creating that stability will help when looking to get the ultimate extension on Brady Tkachuk, who will be eligible after next season.

Tkachuk addressed the media on Wednesday, pushing back on rumours that he wants to leave, calling them frustrating and distracting. He also reiterated his commitment to the team and the city.

That said, to get him to extend, Staios will have to forge a clearer path to the Stanley Cup, and that starts with retaining these players. Tkachuk will remain committed to the city and the team as long as he sees that same commitment in return.

Staios has a big offseason ahead of him. Like Travis Green said when discussing how to get back into the series with the Canes when down 2-0, “we need to focus on hitting singles and doubles rather than going for home runs.”

The same strategy should be used this offseason.

Pat Maguire 
The Hockey News 

This article was first published at The Hockey News Ottawa. Check out more great Sens features from The Hockey News at the links below:  

Staios Admits Senators Goaltending Plan For This Season Was Flawed
Now Facing A Suspension, Ridly Greig Addresses His Game 4 Sucker Punch
Senators’ Offence Never Gets On Track As Hurricanes Complete Sweep
Pending UFA Lassi Thomson Embraced Late-Season Opportunities
Senators Sign Red-Hot Goalie Prospect Who's On A 21–1 Heater