Even After Giroux's Return, Senators Still Need To Bolster The Top Of Their Lineup
Claude Giroux’s return offers veteran stability, two-way play, and elite faceoff ability, but the Sens still need more high-end, first-line skill.
Nothing has been formally announced, but Claude Giroux is reportedly close to finalizing an agreement to return to the Ottawa Senators.
According to PuckPedia, Giroux’s contract is structured around a base salary of $2 million, with the potential to trigger an additional $3 million in bonus clauses. The veteran will earn an additional $1.5 million for appearing in 10 games, $500,000 for playing in 40 games, and an additional $500,000 each if the Senators reach the Eastern Conference and the Stanley Cup Final.
The news is a bright spot amid a tumultuous couple of weeks in Ottawa.
As disappointing as the Brady Tkachuk trade request and subsequent move were, it felt like this was a galvanizing moment for the franchise, where they finally had a chance to create a united front, free of distractions. For as talented a player as Brady was, it was impossible to ignore the noise that encapsulated the Senators’ captain.
Things started off well enough after that, with Jordan Spence signing an extension, but the trades for Samuel Ersson and Andre Burakovsky left fans scratching their heads. So when third-party reports surfaced last week pointing towards Giroux returning to the Philadelphia Flyers, fans resigned themselves to the likelihood that the popular veteran had played his last game for the Senators.
It represented another significant blow to this fanbase’s psyche.
It was not that Giroux is irreplaceable.
The right winger scored 14 goals while contributing 49 points in 82 games. It marked the third consecutive season in which Giroux’s production had declined. And, because four of Giroux’s markers were empty-netters, and only one was scored on the power play, you could not blame anyone for believing that he was no longer the offensive threat that he once was.
Giroux’s offensive totals were not the only thing that diminished, however. NHL Edge data shows that he clearly lost a step from his 2024-25 numbers. From October through December, he averaged 17:24 of ice time per game. From January on, his average ice time dropped by more than two minutes to 15:22. Aside from taking some key defensive zone draws, his penalty killing responsibilities were reduced.
Giroux’s five-on-five rates actually were not that bad, however.
His goals- and points-per-60 rates were down from his first two years in the nation’s capital, but this past season’s numbers were better than his 2024-25 rates per Natural Stat Trick.
Considering how strong Giroux’s defensive metrics continue to be and how he had the highest faceoff percentage in the league at 61.3 percent, he still offers a ton of utility.
The question is, where does he fit best, and who gets squeezed out?
After re-signing Giroux and forward Nick Cousins, the Senators have a congestion of wingers.
Given his skill set and cap hit, it feels safe to assume Travis Green and the Senators will afford Burakovsky the opportunity to start the season playing on one of the team’s top two lines.
If he is ineffective, Giroux could serve as insurance because of his extensive experience playing alongside Tim Stützle.
It would make the most sense to reunite Giroux with Shane Pinto and Michael Amadio on what was one of the league’s best third lines. In the 285 minutes that this combination played together at five-on-five, the Senators generated 54.78 percent of the shots (CF%), 58.27 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 65.54 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 58.21 percent of the expected goals (xGF%).
Giroux is a better defensive player than the alternatives, which makes him a desirable candidate for a checking role.
The Senators are obviously trying to model themselves after the Stanley Cup champion Carolina Hurricanes in having quality depth and offensive threats on each line, but after moving some valuable opportunity costs at each of the last two trade deadlines, it is hard to ignore the fact that the Senators are spending $7.775 million to have Warren Foegele and Fabian Zetterlund slot on the fourth line. Mix in Nick Cousins’ $1.5875 million, and that’s almost $9.4 million spent on fourth line depth.
The quality of depth is important for any organization striving for Cup contention, but it also highlights the volume of middle- and bottom-six players this organization has acquired. If there is a criticism of the Senators’ front office, it is that it has exclusively worked the margins, looking for gains across the depths of its roster.
The pursuit of gains anywhere on the roster is essential for any successful manager, but the problem is that this organization needs higher-end talent at the top of the roster to take this group to a much higher level - especially at a critical period when Jake Sanderson and Tim Stützle are young and within the window offered by their inexpensive, long-term extensions.
In fairness to Staios and the front office, they have been handcuffed by a thin farm system. They have finally started taking more swings on high-risk, higher-upside prospects that other organizations will likely covet. If some of that talent starts to hit, and with the organization owning five first-round picks across the next four drafts, they should be positioned and poised to make a significant addition should one become available.
For all the consternation about not making a significant addition this offseason, the market has not exactly been teeming with high-end talent. And for the ones who are available, like Jason Robertson, the belief is that the Senators would not be high on their list of preferred destinations.
A strong top-down culture that permeates the organization will attract players, but winning games is what appeals most.
If the Senators’ strong defensive metrics continue to hold and the organization gets the goaltending it enjoyed down the stretch and into the postseason, this group will win its fair share of games. Their blue line and centre depth are too good for the team not to hold its own, even in a competitive Atlantic Division.
And when they do, Staios has to be ready to be aggressive and make the move to bolster the top of this team’s lineup.
By Graeme Nichols
The Hockey News
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