Senators Have A Million Options, But Which Forward Line Combinations Make The Most Sense?
As life after Brady Tkachuk begins in Ottawa, we analyze possible line combinations and kick the tires on what the top six might look like.
The Senators have undergone some changes up front this summer, but with training camp a couple of months away, figuring out exactly how all the pieces will best fit together isn't easy.
And there's still a chance Steve Staios adds another chess piece or two before then.
Gone from their starting 12 since the end of last season are Brady Tkachuk and Lars Eller. Their roster spots have effectively been taken by newly acquired William Eklund and Andre Burakovsky.
Make no mistake, Travis Green will constantly juggle his lines this season. He always does. If a line isn't going, he'll point at them like a cranky Sophie Cunningham and switch things up faster than a lot of coaches might.
But that may be partly due to the cards he's been dealt.
Traditionally, you could put your six most skilled forwards in your top six. Or maybe you go with two skilled pairs and complement them with a bruising winger who brings a little skill and a lot of bite.
The trouble is that it's hard to identify who best fits those roles in Ottawa, because they're a little short on bruising wingers and obvious top-six options, and there's a lot of sameness in the bottom nine.
Depending on your mood, you might describe the Senators' forward roster as a solid first line, supported by three excellent third lines. According to AI, Green has nearly 4.8 million ways to arrange his 13 forwards into four lines and a scratch.
With Tkachuk gone, there can be no debate: Tim Stützle is the Sens' best forward by far, and whatever line he's on is the Senators' top line.
But as Green scribbles out the rest of his line ideas on a cocktail napkin this summer, it feels like he has a million potential combinations to choose from.
Drake Batherson (71 points), Dylan Cozens (59), and William Eklund (53) will almost certainly join Stützle in the top six. But what about the other two spots?
By stats, Claude Giroux (49) and Shane Pinto (46) are the best bets.
After that, the sameness really kicks in.
The Sens believe newcomer Andre Burakovsky (33), Ridly Greig (35), and Fabian Zetterlund (33) are capable of producing more offence. Michael Amadio (33), meanwhile, seems to be getting better with age.
Then there's the curious case of Warren Foegele (17), who put together back-to-back 20-goal, 40-point NHL seasons before losing his mojo in Los Angeles last season. He rebounded after his trade to Ottawa despite playing almost exclusively on the fourth line. His eight points in 21 games equated to a 31-point pace, making you wonder what he could do higher in the lineup.
More on Foegele's game in a moment.
Stephen Halliday, who scored at a 30-point pace last season, is just scratching the surface as he enters his second NHL season. Maybe, like Cozens, he's a guy they could audition on the wing. He's a natural centre, but so are Greig, Nick Cousins, and Giroux.
The Senators have "optionality," as Staios likes to call it.
Cousins (23) can and has chipped in for decent stretches in the top six without looking out of place. He's known for his energy and sometimes chippy play, but there's more offensive skill there than people give him credit for. That's part of why the Sens locked him up for two more years this summer.
The Sens could certainly use another point-per-game forward in their top six. But on the bright side, all 13 forwards who will play regularly are capable of creating offence.
They're a true four-line team, which should make them harder to defend. And almost everyone on the roster has a reasonable chance to improve on what they did last season, especially with some of last year's off-ice drama now in their rearview mirror.
So, you're here for my best crack at the forward line combinations? Let's do this.
William Eklund – Tim Stützle – Drake Batherson
Warren Foegele – Shane Pinto – Dylan Cozens
Andre Burakovsky – Ridly Greig – Claude Giroux
Nick Cousins – Stephen Halliday – Michael Amadio
Extras: Fabian Zetterlund and Kurtis MacDermid (McDermid is now listed on puckpedia.com as a non-roster forward)
Those aren't predictions; it's just how I'd line things up.
I've wanted to see Shane Pinto in the top six since before Josh Norris left. I love the idea of moving Cozens over to the wing and giving Pinto a larger role in the offence, especially as his $7.5 million deal kicks in.
Pinto's ascension would add another legit top-six forward, but even with that, they're probably still one short.
I had kicked around the idea of having Greig round it out as the second-line left winger, letting some mix of Giroux, Halliday and Cousins handle centre on the third and fourth lines. You could still talk me into it, but I'd ideally like to see him get off the 13-goal train that he's been riding in each of his first three seasons.
My final guy in the top six shall be... (cue the sarcastic drum roll) Warren Foegele.
Even if Foegele goes pointless for three games, he's still doing a lot of things that help you win. You're getting a bigger player who's fast, defensively responsible, always gets involved, goes to the net, and finishes checks. That's all slump-proof stuff.
And if he can catch fire and get back to the 20+ goals he had in two of the past three years, then voila, there's your legitimate top six guy.
In a way, I'll be running a time share at left wing on the bottom three lines, with Foegele, Burakovsky, Cousins, and Zetterlund. On any given night, any one of them can easily rotate in or out, up or down.
In any event, it will be good to have a legit NHL forward as the 13th man for when injury strikes. And it will.
For the record, these line combination predictions aren't just subject to change.
They absolutely will.
By Steve Warne
The Hockey News
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