When a front office is widely portrayed as a measured group that acts methodically, any moves that do not align with that image stand out like one of Cory Clouston’s pastel coloured ties.

No move this offseason sticks out quite like the organization’s decision to target winger Andre Burakovsky.

After tallying a single goal and four lowly points across his last 37 games, general manager Kyle Davidson and the Chicago Blackhawks were ready to move on from Burakovsky and the final year of his contract, which carries a $5.5 million cap hit.

Begging the question, why would the Ottawa Senators be interested in the player?

Acquired for the modest return of a 2027 sixth-round pick, the opportunity cost was small, which fits in with the organization’s strategy of targeting players they believe have experienced down years and offer the potential to provide greater returns than the assets the Senators gave up.

“He's shown that he can play with top players,” general manager Steve Staios explained. “He's been on two Stanley Cup championship teams, and we have a strong core group. We are taking a swing on some upside, and it's an opportunity we wanted to get out ahead of. It didn't take us out of anything that we were looking to do moving forward, as a relatively low acquisition cost.

“We like to try and get ahead of it with some talent like that, and I think in working with the coaching staff and digging in on the player, they felt not only comfortable but excited about what our environment might be able to create for him. He's got a great skill set. He's a transporter of the puck and can shoot it. I trust our coaching staff. Coaches have been able to continue to develop players, and when you have some upside, it's exciting to see where it can go.”

Jordan Spence and Warren Foegele are prime examples of this strategy. Although in Foegele's case, I suppose it can be argued that the Senators gave up a relatively valuable draft asset, a 2026 second-round pick, for a player who slots on their fourth line and is slated to test unrestricted free agency next summer.

Spence has been a revelation for the Senators as a two-way defenceman with exceptional analytics, while Foegele contributed six goals and eight points in 21 regular season games after being acquired at the trade deadline. He produced as much as he did in Los Angeles last season in 26 fewer games.

Rather than wait for the NHL’s first buyout period to conclude and see whether the Blackhawks would cut bait with Burakovsky. (As an aside, a source indicated that the Blackhawks were prepared to buy him out.) Instead, the Senators flipped a late draft pick rather than compete on the open market for his services, believing that his true value is closer to $3.75 million in real salary.

The bet with Burakovsky is that his true talent is closer to the production he exhibited earlier in the season than to his production over his last 37 games.

In his first 38 games, Burakovsky recorded 10 goals and 29 points. It was his best offensive start to a season since leaving Colorado in 2022.

Unfortunately, that production waned after he endured an illegal hit to the head by Seattle’s Ryan Lindgren in late November. By the end of the season, Burakovsky posted some of his worst offensive rate stats since entering the league.

According to Natural Stat Trick, Burakovsky had a five-on-five goals per 60 rate of 0.42 and a points per 60 rate of 1.31. Only his dreaded 2023-24 season in Seattle was worse. To put these numbers into a Senators context, the only regular forward in Ottawa who posted lower five-on-five goal and point rates than Burakovsky last season was Lars Eller.

The good news is that Burakovsky's splits between his first 38 games and his last 37 games are markedly different.

First 38 games:

0.68 Goals/60

2.05 Points/60

4.67 Shots/60

0.69 Individual expected goals/60 (ixG/60)

9.9 Individual shot events/60 (iCF/60)

Last 37 Games:

0.12 Goals/60

0.50 Points/60

3.25 Shots/60

0.36 Individual expected goals/60 (ixG/60)

6.5 Individual shot events/60 (iCF/60)

They may be slightly below the rates that he posted in Colorado, but if the Senators get the player who resembled the Burakovsky of the first half, there is value there. Only Stephen Halliday, Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle and Drake Batherson had higher point rates than Burakovsky’s 2.05 from his first 38 games.

And as Steve Staios mentioned, Burakovsky is accustomed to playing with skilled players. The 31-year-old winger spent almost 60 percent of his five-on-five minutes playing alongside Connor Bedard last season.

Burakovsky may be on the wrong side of 30, but he has played and performed in a scoring role before. And in Ottawa, Burakovsky is slated to start the season in the top six. As a left-shot who plays his off-side, there is not exactly a ton of realistic competition to push him.

Since being acquired at the 2025 trade deadline, Fabian Zetterlund has been afforded several opportunities to solidify himself as a viable option, but he has failed to take hold of the role. Michael Amadio is entrenched as a checking line winger, and given how long the Claude Giroux negotiations dragged on into unrestricted free agency, it feels reasonable to assume that he will take a reduced offensive role. Given his effectiveness playing alongside Amadio and Shane Pinto at times last season, that may be where he is destined to start the 2026-27 campaign.

Burakovsky’s defensive metrics have never been particularly strong, but if he struggles to produce right away, it could open the door to competition. Giroux could earn another turn, but a more intriguing possibility could see centre Dylan Cozens slide to the wing.

Cozens may make for a fine Plan B, but for a team whose identity is built on quality of depth, maintaining their strength down the middle may be preferable. To preserve that stability at centre, it may come down to Burakovsky’s production.

If he cannot live up to the expectations, the organization could rue taking on Burakovsky’s $5.5 million cap hit as they sit tight to the cap ceiling.

With their window of competitiveness tied so closely to the inexpensive contracts of Jake Sanderson and Tim Stützle, their window is now.

By Graeme Nichols
The Hockey News