Speaking in general terms, GM Steve Staios said last week he now has the depth and cap flexibility to be in on things.
In an offseason in which its captain quit on his group to be a wingman in Florida and the franchise icon left the coaching staff to broaden his horizons in pursuit of an NHL head coaching gig, it certainly is not hard to become cynical about the Ottawa Senators’ chances in 2026-27.
The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn rated the Senators as being the second-least improved team this summer and, on many levels, it is understandable. Outsiders will look at the Senators’ wild card placement last season and offseason to conclude that they could finish outside the playoff picture in 2027.
Replacing Brady Tkachuk’s blend of skill and physicality is an impossible task, but after general manager Steve Staios acknowledged in his end-of-the-year availability that the backup goaltending position was his biggest misstep last year, entrusting those responsibilities to one of the worst statistical goaltenders in the NHL these past three years is a massive roll of the dice.
Recency bias obviously adds weight and attention to what has been a relatively low-key series of additions for the Senators.
Re-signing Jordan Spence to a multi-year commitment at an affordable cost was a tidy piece of business. William Eklund won’t replace Tkachuk, but the organization is hoping he has a chance to pop for more offence and, at the very least, he should be a solid two-way addition to the team’s top six.
Staios has repeatedly referenced Justin Peters and Maciej Szwoch’s belief in Samuel Ersson’s tools over the past several weeks. There is so much volatility in NHL goaltending that Ersson could reward that confidence with significantly improved play. It also helps that he is Swedish, and that consideration could help favourably in building a relationship and battery with Linus Ullmark.
With so much emphasis on recent moves, it is easy to forget that Ottawa finished in the top-five in many important statistical categories.
According to Natural Stat Trick’s five-on-five data, the Senators finished in the top-five in the percentage of shots (52.85 CF%, 5th), shots on goal (54.08 SF%, 4th), expected goals (54.54 xGF%, 3rd), shots allowed per 60 (51.85 CA/60, 3rd), shots on goal allowed per 60 (23.37 SA/60) and expected goals allowed per 60 (2.32 xGA/60, 2nd).
On special teams, the Senators finished with the league’s eighth-ranked power play (24.0%), and after assistant coach Mike Yeo took over the penalty kill duties from Nolan Baumgartner on January 24th, the Senators had the second-best rate in the league (89.2%).
The Senators’ greatest strength lies in their structure and commitment to defence. They match one of the best and youngest bluelines in the NHL with incredible young centre depth. Provided the organization can maintain their strong five-on-five numbers, they should be in good shape.
It was widely documented last season that the Senators could not get saves. Had the team received league-average goaltending, they would have been one of the Atlantic Division's top three teams and sat comfortably in a playoff spot.
It is naive to believe that Ullmark can carry his exceptional playoff performance across a full slate of regular season games, but he can be significantly better than he was last season.
Perhaps most importantly, what is really exciting about this stage of the franchise’s development is how the team is well-positioned to make a splashy trade should the right player and fit become available.
Speaking to TSN 1200’s John Rodenburg last week, Staios expanded on this prospective development.
“The way we've positioned ourselves now, I always look back to where we're always trying to improve,” the general manager stated. “When I first came in the doors here in Ottawa and assessed where we were, and continue to build on our team and continue to improve our team. The position we're in now with not only the cap flexibility and the depth of our roster, but also draft assets and prospects that we didn't have when we got here (has changed).
“It’s not the exciting stuff that fans probably want to hear, but I think when you look at it on the work that we've done, sometimes it looks subtle, but there's there's ways that we've built up on this roster and the depth to continue to be a competitive team, but also give us the flexibility moving forward to be able to be in on things.
"And initially, when I got here, we were a little bit hamstrung, so there wasn't the optionality to look at these options. We certainly looked at them. We assessed them, but we just couldn't get in the game. We have put ourselves in a position now where we can get in the game.”
A recent report on RG.org by Daria Tuboltseva indicated that Columbus’ Kirill Marchenko may be close to being traded.
The 26-year-old right winger is in the final year of his contract that carries a $3.85 million cap hit per PuckPedia. His real salary for the 2026-27 season is $3.975 million. Marchenko has one more year of restricted free agency beyond this season before he can become an unrestricted free agent.
Listed at 6’3, 201 lbs, Marchenko tallied 27 goals and 67 points in 76 games last season while playing predominantly with Adam Fantilli and Mason Marchment. The winger has scored 20-plus goals in each of his four NHL seasons, with his best season occurring in 2024-25 when he recorded 31 goals and 74 points in 79 games.
Although they are different players, Marchenko’s impacts are not dissimilar from Senators winger Drake Batherson.
Graphic: Hockeystats.com.
Marchenko’s age certainly aligns with the Senators’ core, but his goal-scoring ability would certainly fill a need. His five-on-five goals (0.91 G/60) and points (1.94 Pts/60) rates last season would have been the third-highest on the team behind Tim Stützle and Batherson.
The Alex DeBrincat deal illustrates why the lack of a controllable term leaves the Senators needing an extension in hand to justify incurring the significant opportunity cost to acquire good players. But, make no mistake, Marchenko represents the type of player the Senators should be targeting.
A shiny new toy may not arrive this summer, but with the Senators’ strengths, coupled with a reasonable expectation that the goaltending will be better, the organization should be poised to add at some point this season.
And assuming they do, they will put themselves in the conversation of being one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference.
By Graeme Nichols
The Hockey News
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