With the Pittsburgh Penguins facing a "do-or-die" situation in Game 4 against the Philadelphia Flyers, head coach Dan Muse should consider some adjustments to keep his team's playoff hopes alive.
Well, it's do-or-die time for the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Heading into Game 4 of their first-round matchup against the Philadelphia Flyers, they find themselves buried in a 3-0 series hole and will be forced to take things one game at a time. Up to this point in the series, the Penguins have scored just four goals and surrendered 11, and captain Sidney Crosby - historically, very effective against the Flyers - has just one point.
It's a very tall mountain for the Penguins to climb, and getting themselves back into this series won't be easy. Teams down 3-0 in a series are 4-209 all-time in NHL history, so comebacks of this nature almost never happen.
So, if the Penguins have any hope to be the fifth, they are going to need to make some adjustments.
Much of what has been giving the Penguins headaches throughout this series so far has been the Flyers' stacking the blue line and playing a neutral zone trap that they can't seem to solve, forcing them to play dump-and-chase hockey that they aren't built for. While there's only so much they can do to counteract that issue, there are some adjustments they can make - lineup or otherwise - to give themselves better opportunities to score and lessen their chances of giving up prime scoring opportunities against.
Here are three adjustments the Penguins should consider making prior to Game 4:
Splitting up the Girard-Letang pairing
During the stretch run of the regular season, the pairing of Kris Letang and Sam Girard actually started to gain some traction and improve alongside one another.
But, in the playoffs, a reversion has happened.
According to Moneypuck, the pairing of Girard and Letang has a measly 42.9 percent expected goals share. And, even if plus/minus is, generally, a pretty arbitrary stat, Letang is a minus-5 and Girard a minus-3 in this series - which are significant numbers across only three games and are the worst marks among Penguins' defensemen.
It appears that Penguins' head coach Dan Muse is going back to this pairing in Game 4, even if Connor Clifton looks like he has been swapped out for Ilya Solovyov on the bottom pairing - another change that needed to happen. However, if things start off on the wrong foot yet again for Girard and Letang, Muse should have a short leash.
Even if the pairing wasn't exactly lighting the world on fire earlier in the season, reuniting Letang with a more familiar partner in Ryan Shea might not be the worst thing. It also gives the Penguins a puck-moving defenseman on each pairing as well as a more traditional stay-at-home partner on each.
Again, if things look bleak early, this should be a default move for Muse.
Putting Chinakhov on the first PP unit, out in six-on-five
Everyone knows by now just how lethal a shot Egor Chinakhov possesses. He may not be playing his best hockey in this series, and he has missed the net with a glaring frequency in these first three games.
But, at the end of the day, he shoots the puck. And he's got a talent for it, too. In a series and in situations where goals are absolutely necessary, why isnt' he on the ice?
Chinakhov being on the first power play unit is something that should have happened ages ago. He has enough defensive awareness to cover up high and man the left point on the power play, and he - obviously - has a weapon as a shoot-first type from that spot.
But, even more so than the first power play unit, the fact that he is not deployed in six-on-five situations is simply mind-boggling.
In the game's most desperate few minutes, teams should be deploying the players on the ice that give them the best chance to put the puck in the net. Chinakhov scored at a 34-goal pace with the Penguins during the regular season, and - again - his devastating shot and reputation as a shoot-first player are huge reasons why.
With a weapon like that at your disposal, why not use him? Again, with the awareness he's shown, there's no harm, no foul in having him out in these situations. And, when your team needs a goal most, perhaps it makes sense to have arguably your best goal-scorer on the ice.
Having a strong forechecker on every line
This is an adjustment that Muse is seemingly making for Game 4, and it's an important one.
The truth of the matter is that the Penguins cannot continue to attack the Flyers the same way they have been in the first three games and expect different results. They need to use the middle of the ice more, play more of a dump-and-chase style when necessary, and use energy and offensive zone pressure to overwhelm the Flyers in their own zone.
And this is why having a good forechecker on each line is going to be key for the Penguins.
To be honest, I do think a guy like Avery Hayes in this series could have made a great deal of difference on the third line. This is the exact style that suits a player like him. But, without him as an option, the Penguins have Bryan Rust on the first line (as well as Rickard Rakell, who also excels at certain aspects of the forecheck), Tommy Novak on the second, Elmer Soderblom on the third, and, well, pretty much all three of those types on the fourth line.
The Penguins will need to play some "get-your-hands-dirty" hockey in order to win this game and have a shot at coming back in this series. They need to generate more around the net-front and more second-chance opportunities, but it all starts with deploying players who can win footraces to pucks, win puck battles, win physical battles, and get the cycle going.
Hopefully, the lineup deployment in this game will help lend to doing that. Good forechecking will be essential for the Penguins.
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