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    Jacob Punturi
    Jacob Punturi
    May 4, 2024, 12:47

    The Pittsburgh Penguins had a difficult season, and their advanced analytics make that even clearer.

    The Pittsburgh Penguins had a difficult season, and their advanced analytics make that even clearer.

    PITTSBURGH -- The Pittsburgh Penguins, by all accounts, had a poor season. The eye test made that clear, with the Penguins struggling to play consistent hockey outside of the final month of the season. What about the underlying numbers? What do the analytics say?

    The new regime in Pittsburgh has a much better appreciation for the analytical side of the game, so they are sure to be paying attention to these numbers as well.

    One quantifiable management is undoubtedly looking at is expected goals for and against. This statistic essentially measures the strength of the chances a team generates. It considers factors like shot location and game situation to assign the shot a probability of scoring, the expected goals percentage. A point shot in traffic will have a low expected goals percentage, whereas a rebound shot from the crease would have a very high expected goals percentage. 

    Looking at how the Penguins fared in this category paints a very persuasive picture. When each team skated with five skaters aside, the Penguins carried an impressive expected goal for a percentage of 51.5%. This was good for 12th in the league. For reference, the highest expected goals this season was the mighty Edmonton Oilers at just under 59%. 

    But did their high marks in expected goals lead to actual goals? At even strength, that was absolutely the case. The Penguins scored 179 goals in those situations, the sixth-highest mark in the league.

    It makes sense when you look at individual statistics from the season as well. Sidney Crosby was a monster at even strength. He scored 71 of his 94 points at five-on-five, the sixth-highest amount in the NHL. At 36, Crosby nearly set a new personal best for even strength production. His career best is 72, set back in 2009-10. 

    Where this team’s downfall lies is already well known and clear: special teams. When you look at how the Penguins ranked in terms of total scoring, the picture changes completely. The Pens scored 253 total goals, placing them 19th in the league. They maintained a positive goal differential overall, only allowing 248 goals. 

    But the Penguins couldn't figure out their power play, no matter what adjustments or efforts they exhausted, and it cost them their season. They only mustered a measly 40 goals with the man advantage over 252 opportunities. They also gave up 12 short-handed goals on the year. With a conversion rate shy of 16%, the Penguins finished with the 30th-ranked power play unit in the NHL.

    The top four scoring teams in the NHL were the Colorado Avalanche, Toronto Maple Leafs, Dallas Stars, and Oilers. It's no coincidence that they were all top-10 power plays as well. The Penguins had the third-worst power play in the league, and their overall performance suffered because of it. Despite being a surprisingly impressive even-strength team, the Penguins couldn't do enough to overcome their special teams failures. 

    Make sure you bookmark Inside the Penguins for the latest news, exclusive interviews, breakdowns, and so much more.

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