Even if Erik Karlsson suffers a setback, THN projections still find it as a net positive for the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Erik Karlsson put together a historic year in 2022-23 recording a 101 points from the blue line, and Kyle Dubas and the Pittsburgh Penguins found a way to acquire him over the offseason.

Given the rarity of a defensemen scoring 100 points, of course the biggest new face on the Penguins is set for a regression.

The real question is, however, just how much of a set back will Karlsson take in his first season in black and gold?

If you ask Kevin, The Hockey News’ AI learning model, Karlsson has a wide range that he could fall into.

On the upper end of the projections, Kevin thinks Karlsson will max out at 89 total points, a 12-point decrease from last season.

Still over a point-per-game, almost 90 points would likely make Karlsson the highest scoring defender in the league for the second consecutive year.

There is a big swing in the prediction, however, as on the lower end Kevin places Karlsson at 72 points.

According to THN’s Rachel Doerrie, Karlsson is the most volatile projection in the data set.

Karlsson’s 17 points spread far exceeds the usual 6-10 point range most NHL players sit at.

For the sake of positivity, even if Karlsson lands on the lower end of his projections and only records 72 points, that is likely a net positive for the Penguins.

Karlsson is stepping into the same spot Jeff Petry occupied last season; Petry recorded 31 points in his single season in Pittsburgh.

That is a 40+ point increase right away in that position alone.

Kris Letang has been a leader of offense from defense for the Penguins since he broke into the league in 2008-09.

Despite the many years of outstanding offensive production, Letang’s career high in points is 68, once again a number below the lower projection for Karlsson.

The last time a Penguins defender recorded 70+ points in a single season was Larry Murphy in 1993-94 when he recorded 73; NHL teams played 84 games that year, too.

All Karlsson has to do is play his game, and even if there is a natural regression, he will still bring a much needed boost of scoring.

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