Everyone wants to have faith in Tristan Jarry, but is he right for the Pittsburgh Penguins?

The Pittsburgh Penguins’ playoff odds are fairly high considering the position they’re currently in. There’s a plethora of teams within a few points of them in the standings.

It’s fair to agree you wouldn’t bet against the team that has made the playoffs for nearly two decades straight. But if Tristan Jarry doesn’t figure things out, it may not matter whether the Penguins make it or not.

Jarry’s lack of playoff success, and availability for that matter, is the most obvious concern heading towards the playoffs. His backup, Casey DeSmith, hasn’t provided much in the way of confidence this season either.

Jarry has been out on multiple occasions now with what is described as a “chronic hip injury”. That just sounds like a troubling sentence. He could be an injury waiting to happen.

It felt like Jarry’s return to the team following the original injury in the Winter Classic would be a boost to the team. Instead, he’s been sub-par since.

Since January 20th, Jarry owns a 4-2-2 record with a 3.32 goals against average and an .893 save percentage. While 10 of a possible 16 points sounds really good, he’s obviously being helped out by his teammates as evidenced by his not-so-solid numbers.

Far too often, Jarry is described as a number one goaltender. Are we really so sure?

According to the website MoneyPuck, Tristan Jarry is at exactly 0.0 goals saved above expected. That means he quite literally does not save a singular goal more than he’s expected to. That figure is tied for 35th among goaltenders who have played at least 20 games. Ironically, DeSmith ranks 25th.

Stick with the 20 games played minimum, Jarry is elite at making the “low danger” save as he ranks fourth with a .978. Transitioning to “medium danger” save percentage, Jarry ranks a pedestrian 39th at .863.

If you’re a Jarry stan, you may want to turn away at this number.

Out of 51 qualified goaltenders, Jarry ranks 49th with a .650 “high danger” save percentage. That ranks above only the Edmonton Oilers’ tandem of goaltenders in Stuart Skinner and Jack Campbell. For conversation sake, DeSmith ranks 22nd with a .737 save percentage.

The Oilers problem is pretty obvious too.

Jarry doesn’t have a great defense in front of him as he’s seen many breakaways and odd-man rushes throughout the year. But he doesn’t profile as a clutch goaltender and it’s no coincidence that he’s been painstakingly bad across his playoff career.

All of these numbers suggest that when facing easy chances, Jarry makes the necessary saves. However, when the going gets tough, Jarry doesn’t make the big saves his team needs on occasion.

Thursday’s overtime loss was a perfect indication of this.

The Islanders were dominated for 55 minutes by the Penguins before they pushed back towards the end of the third. Jarry did face two breakaways in overtime and was scored upon in the second one but his trend of allowing goals when the team needs the big save showed up again.

The Penguins need a magical 180-degree turn out of Jarry if they want any chance of anything more than a first-round exit…or even a playoff appearance at all.

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