If the last few days have taught us anything about this year's NHL trade deadline, it sure is a seller's market. 

On Wednesday, the Tampa Bay Lightning surrendered two first-round picks, a second-round pick, and forward Michael Eyssimont to the Seattle Kraken for forwards Yanni Gourde and Oliver Bjorkstrand as well as a 2026 fifth-round pick.

For perspective, Gourde, 33, was scooped up by Seattle in the 2021 expansion draft and has six goals and 17 points in 36 games on the season. Bjorkstrand, 29, was originally a cap dump from the Columbus Blue Jackets in 2022 and has 16 goals and 37 points in 61 games this season - as well as a cap hit of $5.4 million for one more season. Both of them are legacy players for the Kraken who helped them in their only playoff run in 2022-23.

Typically, two first-round picks isn't the price for players of that age or caliber. This year, it is. 

And it's making a lot of Pittsburgh Penguins fans wonder what President of Hockey Operations and General Manager Kyle Dubas can fetch in return for top winger Rickard Rakell.

Rakell, 31, has 29 goals and 53 points in 63 games on the season and is well on his way to a career year. His previous career-best season came in 2017-18 with the Anaheim Ducks, when he registered 34 goals and 69 points in 77 games. 

It's easy to see why Dubas should pull the trigger. If the going price for Gourde and Bjorkstrand - two players not even close to the caliber of player Rakell is this season - is two first-round picks, it becomes pretty easy to start imagining the return Rakell would fetch.

A first-round pick? Without question. A top prospect? Probably. A young, NHL talent? If not a top prospect, absolutely. 

But there are things to consider. The Penguins are attempting to rebuild on-the-fly. They already traded forward Michael Bunting - acquired in the deal that sent Jake Guentzel to the Carolina Hurricanes before the 2024 trade deadline - and a 2026 fourth-round pick to the Nashville Predators in exchange for veteran, hard-hitting defenseman Luke Schenn and center Tommy Novak.

Novak, 27, has put out similar production to Bunting this season and is on the books for two more years at $3.5 million, which is a good get for a team that is trying to turn things around quickly. He is a bit younger than Bunting, is cheaper, and has some skill to boot. He can man the third-line center position or play in the top-six.

But that's just the thing: The Penguins are rebuilding on-the-fly. Which is why the rush to deal Rakell - even in a seller's market - should give a little bit of pause.

Beyond this season, Rakell has three years remaining on a team-friendly deal that pays him $5 million annually. And that contract is going to look even more team-friendly this summer when the cap rises by $7.5 million, when more teams are going to be in the bidding for his services.

A summer move would also make sense for that reason, especially since they can also leverage draft capital along with Rakell to heighten any return in a bidding war. Also, Bryan Rust's no-movement clause expires this summer, and there is a strong notion that the Penguins will attempt to trade Erik Karlsson this summer. Both players would fetch a decent return, too, so waiting until the summer to trade Rakell gives them more clarity on the market for all three players and allows them to compare value. 

But folks simply cannot discount the possibility that keeping Rakell around might make some sense, too. And it's not that outlandish when you think about the bigger picture.

For starters, many are saying that this is the highest value Rakell will ever have. But, if you look at Rakell's history - as well as consider the fact that the cap will keep skyrocketing year-by-year, making Rakell's contract look even better - that seems a bit disingenuous.

Assuming Rakell hits the 30-goal plateau this season, it will be the third time he's done so in his career. He also has six seasons of 20 or more goals. And when you look at the seasons where his production was down - including last season, when he registered 15 goals and 37 points in 70 games - the common denominators are injury/health issues and the lack of an elite playmaking center alongside him.

When Rakell is healthy and playing with an elite playmaking center like Sidney Crosby or Ryan Getzlaf - who he played with during his best seasons with the Anaheim Ducks - this is who he is. He's a sniper. A goal-scorer. Something that a finishing-deficient team like the Penguins desperately needs. So, even though many say otherwise, there's a very good chance that Rakell's value won't be much lower if the Penguins decide to keep him around longer.

The truth is, when a team is attempting to rebuild on-the-fly, you simply cannot trade everyone. Some veterans have to stick around to bridge that one-to-four-year gap with playoff contention.

And that's especially something to consider when those veterans are good players with term, which is something Rakell is. They're going to need to keep some guys around in order to successfully execute what they're trying to accomplish, and Rakell could very well be one of those guys.

With all that said, there are a lot of signs that point to Dubas and the Penguins trying to be contenders again in 2026-27.

They have already established a near-NHL-ready prospect pool in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton (WBS) - Pittsburgh's AHL affiliate - that is largely on track to make the jump to the NHL level in 2025-26. Several players on that team - namely forwards Ville Koivunen, Tristan Broz, and Rutger McGroarty, as well as defenseman Owen Pickering - will almost certainly be part of the NHL roster next season in some capacity.

There are also other younger players - like 18-year-old defenseman Harrison Brunicke, who impressed in training camp this past year, and 20-year-old top goaltending prospect Sergei Murashov - who may push for a roster spot.

The Penguins also have more draft picks over the next three seasons than anyone else in hockey. That includes 15 selections in the first three rounds, which should net them some higher-value players for their longer-term plan. Plus, even if they don't trade Rakell, they figure to have even more assets in the first three rounds once the trade deadline passes, considering what they might get for pending-UFAs in defenseman Matt Grzelcyk and forward Anthony Beauvillier in this market.

They also have that extra first-round pick from the Marcus Pettersson trade, which Dubas has indicated is in play as far as leverage in a trade for a young, elite talent. In fact, he has already alluded to the fact that they won't be using their entire draft cupboard to draft players.

All these things add up to a timeframe that isn't as far out as some think. The execution has to happen, but the foundation is in place.

And when thinking about things from that perspective, the Penguins may not be keen on moving on from a 30-goal scorer who is under team-friendly control for three more seasons - two of which would be within that perceived contention window. Sure, an overpay would be enticing, and the Penguins could use that presumed first-round pick and likely younger player or top prospect to build toward the future.

But the fact is that they have a surefire 30-goal talent already, and Dubas is likely aware that taking him out of the equation severely limits any hopes of contention in one or two years, which appears to be what he's trying to accomplish. Even if they get that young talent or top prospect in return, they won't be guarantees like Rakell is already.

The bottom line is this: Dubas's asking price for Rakell is reportedly very high, and it should remain that way. In this market, the asking price should be no less than a first-round pick, an NHL player, and a top prospect. 

If he can't get that value in return for his best asset in Rakell - a player who could potentially help bridge this team back into contention by sticking around - the deal isn't worth it.

So, the Penguins need to be calculated about Rakell. And, if they do trade him, they need to make sure it's not yet another trade centered on picks, but rather on young NHL talent or top prospect talent that can - for certain - help their rebuild on-the-fly in the near-term.

Sometimes, the "biggest" return isn't necessarily the "right" return. And the Penguins need the right return for Rakell. They cannot afford to miss on this one if trading him is the route they decide to take.

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