The three-time Norris Trophy winner had season of ups and downs in 2023-24
When general manager and president of hockey operations Kyle Dubas landed three-time Norris trophy-winning defenseman Erik Karlsson last summer, it caused quite the stir. The Swede was fresh off the best offensive season by a defenseman since Brian Leetch's in 1992, as Karlsson scored 25 goals and 101 points.
The addition of Karlsson ignited playoff aspirations last season, as many expected him to revive a dead power play and put up point-per-game numbers in a Penguins uniform. Even if these expectations weren't necessarily entirely grounded in reality, it was fair to expect Karlsson to have a significant impact on the Penguins' struggling offense.
The actual reality is that, despite showing flashes of brilliance, Karlsson's performance was simply not enough to get this team to the playoffs.
While it isn't fair to single him out - and his underlying metrics suggest that he was generating offense at rates relatively similar to his monster season with the Sharks - it was entirely fair to expect him to have more of an overall impact on this team's offense than he did.
With that said, here are four reasons Karlsson should improve with the Penguins next season.
It takes a while for defensemen to adjust to new systems
It's a pretty common understanding in hockey circles that defensemen tend to take a while to adjust to entirely new and different systems. There are new schemes, more responsibilities, and differing expectations to learn and adjust to.
Take, for instance, former Penguins' defenseman Paul Martin: Highly regarded as a well-rounded defenseman, Martin struggled pretty immensely in his first season with the Penguins in 2010-11. His offensive production dipped from his time in New Jersey, and he was frequently caught out of position. However, Martin's importance to the Penguins shone through in the seasons that followed. Despite being riddled by injuries, the defenseman rounded into form once he was able to adapt to the Penguins' aggressive possession and forechecking style.
It's fair to assume that a defenseman as high-profile and seasoned as Karlsson may need a bit more than a single season to fully settle in. Karlsson basically ran the offense all by himself in San Jose, where he was also playing for a tanking team that had next to no regard for defense or winning.
In Pittsburgh, he was forced to adjust to a system that required more from him defensively and expected more calculated, less high-risk play. If the Penguins and Karlsson can find a happy middle ground where he can play to their system while also capitalizing on his strengths, things should look a lot better this season - even if things, such as his defense, weren't quite as bad as they may have seemed last year:
He was excellent down the stretch in 2023-24
Yes, there were some mishaps - and there probably always will be with Karlsson. But he was a crucial part of the Pens' insane winning stretch at the end of the 2023-24 campaign that almost got them into the playoffs.
Karlsson registered 10 points in the team's final 12 games, with the Penguins generating a ridiculous all-situations 61.48% on-ice expected goals for (xGF%) with Karlsson on the ice during those games - which, by comparison, was higher than captain Sidney Crosby's 58.8 xGF% in that stretch of games. And even after a few glaring mishaps in a crucial game against Detroit at the end of the season, he played the hero in overtime:
If Karlsson finally found his stride late last season, it's reasonable to assume he can use some of that momentum to make a larger impact earlier on.
He has a new - yet familiar - defensive and PP coach
Perhaps the two biggest criticisms of Karlsson's play last season were his frequent defensive lapses and inability to quarterback the power play.
Although the lapses won't magically fix themselves - and he's never been an excellent power play producer anyway (only 27 of his 101 points in 2022-23 came on the PP) - he will be working with someone this season who is familiar with bringing out the best in his game.
Former Sharks head coach David Quinn, who was at the helm during Karlsson's historic, Norris-winning campaign two seasons ago, has joined the Penguins as their defensive and power play coach. Quinn has a history of coaching Norris-worthy defensemen - he also coached defenseman Adam Fox during his Norris season with the Rangers in 2020-21 - and he has good rapport with Karlsson.
Perhaps Quinn can unlock the larger scope of Karlsson's offensive potential as a Penguin.
Karlsson generated a ton - but his teammates couldn't finish
This is perhaps both the biggest reason to be optimistic and also the biggest reason to have skepticism. Per Moneypuck, On the season, Karlsson generated a whopping all-situations 60.9 xGF% and a very respectable 55 xGF% at 5-on-5 - with his all-situations behind only Crosby (61.9 xGF%) and Valtteri Puustinen (63.5 xGF%) and his 5-on-5 behind only Bryan Rust's (55.3 xGF%) and Puustinen (56 xGF%).
And according to data from Natural Stat Trick, Karlsson generated an on-ice high-danger chances for (HDCF%) of 57.42 - the highest mark of his career and besting Crosby's mark of 56.19 HDCF%.
In other words, Karlsson is doing a ton to generate scoring chances for the Penguins. The reality is that - both on the PP and during 5-on-5 - his teammates simply aren't putting the puck in the net enough:
Is it reasonable to expect more from Pittsburgh's overall offense? Absolutely. But it's also perfectly reasonable to expect that their astoundingly poor finishing metrics won't correct themselves anytime soon.
Regardless, Penguins' fans should expect to see more from Karlsson this season. Whether or not it's enough to help drag them back into contention remains to be seen.