Pittsburgh faces a tough decision regarding their top defensive prospect as the pre-season comes to a close - and it could have a lot do with the uncertainty involving No. 1 defenseman Erik Karlsson
With pre-season games officially concluded and regular season rosters due at 5:00 p.m. ET on Monday, Sept. 28, the Pittsburgh Penguins and 31 other NHL teams will soon make final decisions regarding their NHL squads.
The situation for the Penguins has quickly become complicated on the forward front, as injuries are already piling up. Blake Lizotte, Oliver Okuliar, and Ben Kindel are week-to-week, while Justin Brazeau and Bryan Rust - injured in Pittsburgh's final pre-season game, a 3-1 win over the Buffalo Sabres - are still being evaluated. On the blue line, Ryan Graves is also day-to-day and being further evaluated.
Prior to the plethora of injuries, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that Pittsburgh would end up keeping 14 forwards and seven defensemen on their NHL roster at the end of camp. However, with less certainty regarding personnel on the forward front, there's no guarantee that they won't elect to keep eight defensemen instead.
And, right now, the Penguins have eight defensemen left on their roster — including 20-year-old Harrison Brunicke.
After a tumultuous first nine NHL games early last season, Brunicke dealt with a good deal of situational adversity while 19 and still ineligible for the AHL. He went on a five-game AHL conditioning stint later in the fall before heading off to the World Junior Championship to represent Team Canada. After a somewhat pedestrian showing there, he was sent back to the Kamloops Blazers of the WHL for the remainder of the season, posting 24 points in 24 games before joining Wilkes-Barre/Scranton (WBS) after Kamloops was eliminated from the playoffs.
There, he really took off. In 11 AHL regular season games, he had one goal and eight points and was a plus-8, but Brunicke was one of the team's very best players in the Calder Cup Playoffs. Playing top-pairing minutes and in all situations, he recorded two goals and seven points in 15 games along with a plus-four, and he was a force in all three zones.
Fast forward to this year's training camp, and Brunicke looks like a much-improved player who makes much better decisions. The problem is that the Penguins appear to be pretty set on their NHL blue line, as they have rolled with Declan Carlile and Erik Karlsson on the top pairing, Sam Girard and Kaedan Korczak on the second, and Trevor van Riemsdyk and Kris Letang on the third. Left blueliner Ilya Solovyov also appears primed to make the roster.
On the surface, it would seem logical to send Brunicke back to the AHL to get some runway next to Owen Pickering - his defensive partner through most of camp - on WBS's top pairing. Assuming he picks up where he left off, it wouldn't be long before he earned the call again, and it could help him start strong and start confident.
However, one big factor brings a good bit of complication to deciding Brunicke's fate out of camp: the uncertainty around Karlsson's situation.
Karlsson, 36, is entering the final season of his eight-year contract that the Penguins pay out $10 million for. Earlier in training camp, Karlsson confirmed that there have been no discussions regarding an extension with the team up to this point and that he's comfortable seeing where things go with the team to start the season before coming to a decision.
While that makes perfect sense in Karlsson's situation - and the Penguins' situation - it makes things a bit tricky for decisions regarding Brunicke.
No matter where things land regarding Brunicke, he's not far off. His Calder Cup Playoffs showed that, if he's not NHL-ready at this point, he's just about as close to it as he can be.
With a near-guarantee of inconsistent playing time at the NHL level out the gate, starting him in the AHL seems to make sense. But, should Karlsson decide mid-season he does not plan to re-sign with the team, GM and POHO Kyle Dubas will almost certainly look to deal Karlsson before this year's trade deadline.
If that happens? Barring catastrophic AHL results, Brunicke likely gets his ticket to full-time NHL minutes. But, if he spends most of the season in the AHL leading up to a Karlsson trade, would they be setting him up for failure in that scenario with the expectation to play full-time top-four minutes with little NHL experience?
That, right there, is where things get tricky. Yes, he can get full, first-pairing minutes in WBS. But, if he remains with the NHL club, there could be a way to ease him into a full-time role in preparation for the possibility that Karlsson may be departing mid-season.
Because, if Karlsson is dealt - and, assuming the Penguins do not acquire another right defenseman to replace him - who fills his role post-departure?
Letang is probably beyond the point in his career where he can handle top-pairing minutes on a regular basis. Korczak could, potentially, fill that role temporarily, but since he is a more shutdown defender, who drives offense from the blue line? Is Girard capable of being a top-pairing offensive defenseman alongside Korczak in that scenario?
It might actually serve the Penguins, and Brunicke, better to try executing some kind of three-way rotation between him, Letang, and Korczak just to see what Brunicke can offer at the NHL level and how the others respond, too. Letang could probably benefit from some load management. Korczak is a relative unknown in terms of how he'll gel with Pittsburgh.
This way, Brunicke can get some needed NHL runway, continue to learn NHL habits, and take as much as he can from veterans like Karlsson and Letang as he slowly transitions to full-time at the highest level. It's safe to assume that the main reason Karlsson would want out is if Pittsburgh is out of the playoff picture, so if that's the case, the Penguins would face a "sink or swim" scenario with Brunicke if he spends most of the season in the AHL instead.
There is not really an easy answer when it comes to how the Penguins should handle Brunicke's situation, but the good thing is that he's AHL-eligible this time around. If he would start the season with the NHL team and struggle in his minutes, they can re-assign him. If he excels, he can make some decisions tough for management once the roster begins to get healthier.
But, if he starts in the AHL and stays there through at least mid-season, the Penguins would be at the mercy of banking on a player being able to make the jump entirely if their best defenseman decides to leave Pittsburgh.
The Karlsson question could be the one thing that keeps Brunicke around to begin the NHL season. Thrusting Brunicke into a top-four role - or even regular NHL minutes, period - if he isn't quite ready for it could be detrimental to his development.
Regardless, this coming season will be a critical one for Brunicke, who is the Penguins' most promising defensive prospect. They very much believe that Brunicke will be a key part of their future on the blue line, so getting his development right is paramount.
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