The San Jose Sharks were always going to have to back up the Brinks truck to sign their young superstars next summer, but with one swipe of a pen, Leo Carlsson and the Philadelphia Flyers have changed the entire landscape of the NHL.
Late last month, it seemed that Connor Bedard's negotiations with the Chicago Blackhawks were going to set the market for Sharks forward Macklin Celebrini's new contract, which whenever it is signed will begin during the 2027-28 season. That no longer appears to be the case, as the Philadelphia Flyers signed Anaheim Ducks forward Leo Carlsson to an offer sheet with an average annual value (AAV) of $18 million on Friday afternoon.
Regardless of whether or not the Ducks opt to match the offer sheet, Carlsson is set to become the highest paid player in the NHL, surpassing Kirill Kaprizov's AAV of $17 million per season.
While both Carlsson and Kaprizov are phenomenal players, neither were able to match what Celebrini did with the Sharks last season. Celebrini's 45 goals were even with Kaprizov, but his 115 points were fourth in the NHL and miles ahead of both the Wild winger and the Ducks centerman.
The Flyers changed the market entirely with their offer sheet with Carlsson, as Kaprizov's contract is no longer an outlier. Now, it's quickly become the norm around the NHL for top players. As a result, Celebrini could command $20 million per season or more, especially if he opts to wait until next summer to negotiate a contract extension and proves that his performance during the 2025-26 campaign wasn't a flash in the pan.
That discussion doesn't even factor in Sharks forward Will Smith, who had an almost identical 2024-25 season to Carlsson. They finished even on points with 45, with Carlsson scoring just two more goals than Smith, who was in his rookie year at the time. Carlsson did create a bit of a gap during the 2025-26 campaign, finishing with 67 points in 70 games compared to Smith's 59 points in 69 games, but it's not a major difference overall.
According to insider Kevin Weekes, the Ducks' goal was to keep both of their key restricted free agents, Carlsson and Cutter Gauthier, in the low eight-figure range:
If Carlsson had signed for $13 million per example, it would've set the market in a very different direction. Instead, a young player just below point-per-game pace can now command nearly $20 million per season.
Add in the fact that Michael Misa, Sam Dickinson, Keaton Verhoeff and Ivar Stenberg will all be up for contracts in two to four years as well, and the Sharks' young core just became very, very expensive in the long run. While the salary cap rising may provide some relief, it's hard to say if it will rise fast enough.
Connor Bedard's extension in Chicago will likely still be the benchmark for Celebrini, but it's safe to say that his asking price just jumped dramatically.
