With reports suggesting the NHL could add a 33rd team ahead of the 2029-30 season, the idea of an expansion draft is certainly going to start dominating headlines and will take up a considerable amount of general managers’ brainpower for the foreseeable future. As the San Jose Sharks are expected to be done with their rebuild at that point, they’ll likely lose a reliable player during the summer of 2029. While there’s plenty of time for things to change, let’s take a look at what the Sharks’ protection list might look like by that point.
For this experiment, all current players will be assumed to be under contract with the Sharks heading into the 2029-30 season. Considering Mike Grier tends not to give out no-move clauses, we’ll also assume that Darnell Nurse is the only player on the roster with one, and for the sake of the experiment we’ll assume he is unwilling to waive it. We’ll also use the protection rules from the Vegas and Seattle expansion drafts, although there’s a chance that the rules change this time around since both of those organizations will likely have to participate.
Forwards: Celebrini, Smith, Misa, Stenberg, Graf, Chernyshov, Ostapchuk
Macklin Celebrini, Will Smith, Michael Misa and Ivar Stenberg are essentially no-brainers to protect at this point. While some of the other prospects in recent draft classes won’t be eligible to be selected as they’ll likely turn professional at later dates, all four of these players will need to take up protection slots as they’ll be well past their second professional season at this point.
Collin Graf and Igor Chernyshov will be key parts of the forward core, even if they’re not necessarily expected to have a big role heading into the 2026-27 season. Zack Ostapchuk, on the other hand, is narrowly on the bubble. If another player has a major breakout season between now and the expansion draft, he could easily be left available. For now though, he’ll hold onto the final protection slot.
Veteran NHLers like Mason Marchment and Kiefer Sherwood are likely interesting targets for the new expansion team if they’re looking to compete immediately. While they’re currently highly touted prospects, unless they’ve already broken into the NHL and unseated Ostapchuk for the final protection slot, players like Quentin Musty, Filip Bystedt, and Cam Lund likely wouldn’t be appealing options for the expansion team at this stage.
Defensemen: Nurse, Dickinson, Verhoeff
If Nurse waives his no-move clause and allows himself to be eligible, this gets a lot less stressful for the Sharks. If not, the Sharks will be forced to protect him heading into the final year of his contract, unless they opt to buy him out or trade him ahead of time. Keaton Verhoeff and Ryan Lin are interchangeable depending on who turns professional first, as there’s a chance that one of them doesn’t have enough professional experience to be eligible for selection. If both are eligible to be selected, it will cause an interesting debate. At that stage, it would even be possible that Sam Dickinson gets left unprotected depending on how his development goes in the near future, but that’s a very unlikely scenario.
If Nurse did opt to waive his no-move clause and both players are eligible to be selected, then the Sharks will likely opt to protect Lin, Verhoeff, and Dickinson.
If the Sharks add a true number one defenseman between now and then, though, it’s possible that a younger player gets left available and likely gets selected. Jacob Trouba, Luca Cagnoni, Eric Pohlkamp, Leo Sahlin Wallanius, and potentially Haoxi (Simon) Wang would all be on the board for the new team regardless. If the expansion team is looking for a relatively younger player, they’d likely take a player from the Sharks’ blue line.
Goaltender: Askarov
Assuming Joshua Ravensbergen doesn’t turn professional in time to be eligible, it’s a clear decision to protect Yaroslav Askarov. If that’s not the case, though, Ravensbergen likely gets protected over Askarov. Of course, if Askarov has a breakout season in the near future, he could establish himself as the Sharks’ true long-term starting netminder and make Ravensbergen a bit more expendable. While it’s certainly way too early to truly guess what the Sharks’ protection list will look like during the next expansion draft, there are quite a few decisions that seem obvious multiple years ahead of time. A lot can change between now and 2029, but it would be massively surprising if a looming expansion draft doesn’t impact management’s decision-making from this point forward.
