The Leafs avoided paying the goaltender as much as $4.9 in arbitration, but that's the only positive that came out of it.
Arbitration can be an ugly process. Just ask any former or current NHLer who has been through it.
It begins with the arbitration briefs when both sides submit salary claims and then goes into the details of how they came to that number. It's hard for it to not get personal.
In Samsonov's case, the Maple Leafs argued why he was only worth $2.4 million, which represented a measly $600,000 raise from the $1.8 million he earned in his first year with the club.
What really complicated matters was the lack of fair comparable contracts. The arbitration process only lets you argue based on players of a similar position who signed contracts as restricted free agents. There was nothing in that span that was close to what Samsonov went through, given the numbers he put up with Toronto last season.
It's believed that Samsonov's side used Jusse Saros and Jake Oettinger as comparables. Oettinger signed a three-year, $12 million contract with the Dallas Stars after a lengthy negotiating process. Given the structure of his deal, Oettinger, 24, will earn $4.8 million in salary. Saros signed a four-year, $20 million deal on Aug. 16, 2021. With that premium, the Nashville Predators bought three years of unrestricted free agency.
The Leafs countered with two very different comparables. One of the goaltenders was Alexandar Georgiev, who signed a three-year, $10.2 million deal with the Colorado Avalanche last summer. The other was former Samsonov teammate Vitek Vanecek, who signed the same deal as Georgiev while avoiding the arbitration process.
Toronto had hoped to argue that Samsonov's cap hit should come in lower than that of Georgiev and Vanecek, since both contracts saw their respective clubs buy two additional years of unrestricted free agency as part of that salary cap number. Based on the ruling, the arbitrator didn't buy it, handing out Samsonov a salary cap hit higher than both goalies ($3.55 million) while earning the right to go to free agency with a higher payday.
If the Maple Leafs believe that Samsonov isn't the goaltender of their future, then it could be a minimal loss. But if Samsonov builds off his season in which he posted a .919 save percentage while helping his club win a playoff round for the first time in 19 years, then he could be the second-most sought after free agent goaltender in the summer of 2024 after Connor Hellebuyck.
Toronto could really believe that Joseph Woll is their goaltender of the future. It's likely they'll find out for sure as he is expected to get more reps with the Maple Leafs this season. But what if he isn't? And next summer when a raise for Auston Matthews is expected to kick in (when and if he signs) and William Nylander (same scenario), how do the Leafs squeeze in the goaltending?
Reportedly, there are no hard feelings with Samsonov's camp about how the arbitration award went down. Toronto hasn't paid a goaltender more than $5 million AAV on their roster since Jean-Sebastian Giguere played in two seasons with the club from 2010-2011. Even with a new general manager at the helm, it sounds like the stance of overcommitting to any goaltender is not in the interests of most clubs, including Toronto.
When Samsonov signed his one-year deal with the Leafs last summer, he bet on himself while turning down other offers for a longer term. Samsonov has won the bet and now he'll have to do it again.
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