One of the few center options the Toronto Maple Leafs could've had in free agency is now off the market.
After a strong season with the Dallas Stars, Matt Duchene signed a four-year, $18 million extension with the club that went to the Western Conference Final against the Edmonton Oilers. It'll see him being paid $4.5 million per season.
Duchene's 82 points — 30 goals and 52 assists — in as many games was the most among Stars players during the regular season. It's also the most points he's had in a year since 2021-22 when he scored 86 points in 78 games.
Duchene followed up a strong regular season with just one goal and five assists in 18 playoff games, centering Dallas' second line. The 34-year-old could've fit nicely within a Maple Leafs core, which could shift John Tavares — if he returns, and it appears likely he will — to the third-line center spot entering next season.
But how much could Tavares make, compared to the contract Duchene just signed?
Report: John Tavares, Maple Leafs In Ongoing Contract Talks Ahead Of NHL Free Agency
With the start of NHL free agency less than three weeks away, the Toronto Maple Leafs are facing decisions that could dramatically change their roster construction. While much speculation centers on the future of projected No. 1 NHL free agent Mitch Marner, the team must also address other key players like John Tavares and Matthew Knies.
I'll start by saying this: there are a lot of numbers out there about what Tavares might get annually, how long his contract will be, and what the final number could look like. However, Duchene signing a $4.5 million AAV deal makes me believe Tavares' number could be around $5 million, or more, annually.
There's two reasons for that.
First, Duchene only pays federal tax on his $4.5 million salary. If Tavares wanted to bring in a similar number to Duchene, the Maple Leafs' assistant captain would need to sign a deal earning him nearly $6 million annually.
Why Mitch Marner's Free Agency Departure Can Bode Well For The Maple Leafs
When Mitch Marner arrived in the Toronto Maple Leafs organization as a tantalizing prospect 10 years ago, there were a lot of unknowns.
I can't see his AAV getting that high only because of a possible hometown discount. He said it himself during locker cleanout day: he wants to remain a Maple Leaf. He even said it minutes after a stunning 6-1 loss to the Florida Panthers in Game 7.
"Would you like to be back?" A reporter asked. "Yes," Tavares swiftly replied.
It's a lot of work to uproot your family, especially after returning home from Long Island in 2018. It's even harder when you've developed roots in Toronto like Tavares has, with three children. I can't see him wanting to do that again, especially with his devotion to the Maple Leafs.
Why Two-Time Stanley Cup Champion Brad Marchand Is Exactly What The Maple Leafs Need
While Brad Marchand was celebrating his <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXPqK2l5zJ8">second Stanley Cup victory</a>, Florida Panthers teammate Sam Bennett spoke to Sportsnet during their lap around the ice. Bennett waxed poetic about the veteran pest. "We just followed his lead,” Bennett said. While Sam Bennett had a strong playoff performance, what the 37-year-old Marchand managed to do in a very short time with Florida was remarkable. He exhibited the perfect combination of will and skill that was required to win all four rounds of a grueling postseason.
The other reason why Tavares should make more than Duchene is that he's been more consistent than the Stars' forward.
Tavares has played 46 more games than Duchene, yet has 223 more points (123 more goals and 100 more assists) than the Haliburton, Ontario, native. Duchene has been a point-per-game player twice in the regular season, while Tavares has done it five times.
Tavares was also among the NHL's top 15 goal scorers this season with 38 goals.
Maple Leafs Snubbed? Sam Bennett Reportedly Has No Interest In Toronto If He Hits Free Agency
When the Toronto Maple Leafs look for free agents to sign on July 1, they’ll no doubt go big game hunting. And while the Leafs would certainly be interested in a player like Sam Bennett, it appears the feeling isn't mutual. According to FanDuel Sports reporter Andy Strickland, Bennett <a href="https://x.com/andystrickland/status/1935447632773578782">does not have Toronto on his list</a> of possible destinations if he is unable to sign an extension with the Florida Panthers.
In this spring's playoffs, too, Tavares outduelled Duchene. Duchene had six points in 18 games, none being at five-on-five, while Tavares scored seven points in 13 games, three of which were at five-on-five.
They're close, but not that close.
I wouldn't be surprised if Tavares' AAV came in at around, or just over $5 million. That's what he deserves. But hey, if he and the Maple Leafs can find a way to go lower, via a longer-term deal or deferring some salary, it gives the club more flexibility to find another center.
Stats via Hockey-Reference.com, contract valuations via PuckPedia.com
(Top photo: Dan Hamilton / Imagn Images)