With the Maple Leafs facing a 58.1 percent chance of losing their first-round pick to Boston, the live ball-by-ball' lottery format promises a high-stakes sweat for Toronto fans.
On Saturday, the NHL confirmed the long-reported news: the NHL Draft Lottery will take place on May 5. While details were initially scarce, the league has since confirmed it will follow the same format introduced last season. The event will be a live presentation broadcast from the NHL Network Studio in Secaucus, New Jersey.
There is already significant drama for the Leafs heading into the night. Toronto holds the fifth-best chance of winning the lottery, but they face a precarious situation: they have only a 41.9 percent chance of keeping their pick. If they drop out of the top five, the pick will be transferred to Boston. This is a condition of the March 7, 2025, trade that sent the pick and Fraser Minten to the Bruins in exchange for veteran defenseman Brandon Carlo.
While the stakes are stressful, the revamped format makes for a compelling 'ball-by-ball' viewing experience. The last time the Maple Leafs participated in a lottery was 2020. Before that, they entered the 2016 lottery, where they successfully retained the No. 1 overall pick to select Auston Matthews.
In those days, the lottery was a static affair. Commissioner Bill Daly would simply reveal the logos of the winning spots in reverse order. While it served its purpose, the show lacked excitement. Under the rules introduced last year and continuing through this year, the process is far more transparent: all 14 lottery balls are drawn live.
There are 1,001 possible combinations that can be chosen from the four balls. Because of that odd number, one specific combination results in a re-draw to ensure an even pool of 1,000. With the Leafs holding an 8.5 percent chance of winning, they are assigned a randomized set of 85 combinations.
As each number is drawn, the screen in the background displays the live odds of the remaining teams and their updated chances of winning. This creates constant drama and allows for real-time commentary as the possibilities narrow.
You may recall the 2015 lottery when the Maple Leafs actually held the best statistical chance of winning after the third ball was drawn. Ultimately, the Edmonton Oilers landed the lucky fourth number to win the Connor McDavid sweepstakes. At the time, no one knew how close Toronto had come until the combinations were revealed well after the event ended. Now, fans get to witness that tension as it happens.
The NHL has not yet announced a specific start time for the lottery, though it will likely take place during an intermission of a scheduled game.