Set to become an unrestricted free agent and expecting a big raise, should the Maple Leafs break what little of the bank they have to retain him?
When Jack Campbell joined the Toronto Maple Leafs via trade from Los Angeles King on Feb. 6, 2020, they had found their solution as a backup to then starter Frederik Andersen.
But it was the 2021 season when Campbell began to realize his potential.
With Andersen hurt at various points in the season, it was Campbell who took charge of the net. He set an NHL record for wins to start a season (11) and his spectacular play was enough to take over the starter's role for the 2021-22 season.
At the beginning of the year, Campbell had picked up where he left off. He posted a .959 save percentage in November and his play had earned the first-round draft pick from 2010 his first NHL All-Star appearance.
Everything was good until the calendar flipped into 2022 and Campbell began to struggle. He posted three-consecutive months with save percentages below .900 but eventually bounced back in April.
In the two seasons where Campbell has been the goaltender of record for the playoffs, he has been ok.
In the 2021 playoffs, Campbell was hard on himself for a couple of goals he let in against the Montreal Canadiens in Game 7 of the Maple Leafs' first-round exit.
During the 2022 playoffs, Campbell struggled at times. He posted a save percentage of .897 and was bested by Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy.
Despite the down year, Campbell is expected to get a significant raise beyond his $1.65 million salary-cap hit from last season. Looking at the goaltending market last summer. Boston Bruins goaltender Linus Ullmark received a $20 million deal over four years last summer. Cal Petersen received the same average annual value ($5 million) in a three-year deal with the Kings.
On the open market, there's no question that Campbell can yield offers north of $5 million. But do the Maple Leafs want to pay it?
Perhaps the better question is should they pay it?
The Leafs have just under $5.7 million in salary cap with both Petr Mrazek and Erik Kallgren as the team's goaltenders. The Leafs signed Mrazek last summer to a three-year contract worth $11.4 million and he had a disastrous first season with the club. He injured his groin three times, Despite posting a 12-6-0 record, his save percentage was .888
Getting out from under the $3.8 million salary-cap charge for next season would certainly help the Leafs in terms of freeing up money to either keep Campbell or look elsewhere in net.
Perhaps the best free-agent goalie on the market is Darcy Kuemper, who just won a Stanley Cup with the Colorado Avalanche.
If the Leafs are going to break the bank, perhaps they do it with someone established or go through a trade route.
But going with Campbell doesn't seem to be right play.
The Leafs recently dismissed goalie coach Steve Briere as the club looks to reimagine what they want to do with the position. Before Campbell's situation can be figured out, the club needs to address how they want to handle the position going forward.
The Maple Leafs are a good team, as evident by their franchise-record 115 points during the 2021-22 season. But a battle-tested playoff performer in goal is perhaps what they need.
And at the increased cost it will take to keep Campbell, it's perhaps time they look elsewhere.