The Golden Knights’ $25.5 Million Gamble Suddenly Looks Like A Bargain

The NHL’s salary landscape is changing quickly, and the Vegas Golden Knights may have found themselves on the right side of that curve.

When Kelly McCrimmon committed more than $25 million annually to Jack Eichel and Mitch Marner, the contracts were viewed as massive investments in two of Vegas’ most important players. A year later, they suddenly look like bargains.

According to projections from AFP Analytics, Eichel’s current $13.5 million annual salary could have climbed to roughly $17.7 million if he were negotiating the same contract today. Marner, meanwhile, could command approximately $15.3 million annually — more than $3 million above the $12 million AAV attached to his eight-year deal with Vegas.

Combined, that is a projected $33 million per season for two players who currently cost the Golden Knights $25.5 million.

That difference illustrates just how dramatically the NHL’s financial landscape has shifted. A rising salary cap has created more room at the top of the market, while a new wave of superstar contracts has pushed the ceiling even higher. Macklin Celebrini and Leo Carlsson have helped elevate the center market, Kirill Kaprizov has reset expectations for elite wingers, and Cale Makar’s recent $20.4 million AAV extension is another striking example of what the league’s best players can now command.

For Vegas, it also offers a reminder that timing can be everything.

McCrimmon and the Golden Knights made their commitments before the latest wave of contracts reset the market. What looked expensive at the time now looks considerably more manageable — and potentially one of the more important pieces of business the organization has done to keep its championship window open.

Eichel’s eight-year, $108 million extension officially begins this season and keeps him under contract through 2033-34. The deal made him the highest-paid player in franchise history when it was signed.

But Eichel has done little to make that price tag look excessive.

The 29-year-old center is coming off his second consecutive 90-point season, finishing last year with 27 goals and 63 assists for 90 points in 74 games. He has become the offensive centerpiece Vegas envisioned when it acquired him from Buffalo in 2021, and his production continues to place him among the NHL’s elite centers.

The timing of his extension now looks particularly significant.

Celebrini and Carlsson have helped push the center market into unprecedented territory, meaning Eichel would have entered negotiations with an entirely different financial landscape had Vegas waited.

Marner’s situation is similar.

Vegas acquired Marner from Toronto in a sign-and-trade last summer, immediately committing to him for eight years at $12 million annually. The move came with enormous expectations after nearly a decade in Toronto, where Marner established himself as one of the league’s most productive forwards.

His first regular season in Vegas was, by his standards, somewhat quieter.

Marner finished with 24 goals and 56 assists for 80 points in 81 games after recording 102 points in his final season with the Maple Leafs.

Then came the playoffs.

Marner produced 10 goals and 19 assists for 29 points in 22 games, delivering the best postseason performance of his career as the Golden Knights reached the Stanley Cup Final.

Vegas ultimately fell to Carolina in six games, but Marner’s playoff run offered a glimpse of exactly why the organization was willing to make such a significant investment in him.

It also makes the projection particularly interesting.

If Eichel and Marner were entering negotiations today, Vegas could be looking at approximately $33 million annually for the pair rather than the $25.5 million it is currently committed to.

That is roughly $7.5 million in annual savings. Over seven years, the difference would exceed $52 million. That’s the kind of money that can fundamentally change the construction of an NHL roster.

It also changes the way McCrimmon’s contract decisions should be viewed.

The Golden Knights have occasionally been criticized for spending aggressively and handing out large contracts. But in this case, the timing appears to have worked decisively in their favor.

McCrimmon isn’t the only general manager who deserves credit for recognizing where the market was headed, either.

Former Colorado Avalanche general manager Chris MacFarland made a similar bet last season when he signed Martin Necas to an eight-year, $92 million extension worth $11.5 million annually. At the time, the contract represented a significant commitment to a player who had never recorded a 100-point season.

Then Necas broke through.

In his first full season with Colorado, Necas reached the 100-point mark for the first time, making the contract look considerably more favorable in hindsight. As the NHL’s elite market continues to climb, that $11.5 million AAV could become another example of a team paying for star talent before the price of star talent skyrocketed.

McCrimmon didn’t necessarily have to predict exactly where the salary cap would go or which players would eventually reset the market. He simply had to recognize that elite talent was becoming more expensive and act before the next wave arrived.

He did.

So did MacFarland.

Now Vegas has two of its most important players locked into long-term contracts that would cost significantly more if negotiated in today’s market, while Colorado may have done something similar with Necas.

And that could become one of the biggest advantages for teams that recognized the changing financial landscape early.

What looked like a massive financial commitment when Vegas made it may eventually be remembered as a timely one. The same could be true of Colorado’s investment in Necas.

The NHL’s market is moving.

The Golden Knights, and teams like the Avalanche, may have moved before it did.