With the PWHL playoff race coming into sharper focus, our tracker examines clinching scenarios, race for the fourth spot, and the potential Gold Plan race.
Three teams are separated by a single point in the race for the final PWHL playoff spot — but their remaining schedules tell very different stories.
Toronto plays:
• Top 3 teams: 3 games (including tonight's game vs. Boston)
• Bubble teams: 4 games
• Bottom teams: 2 games (and the key factor is three games against Ottawa).
New York plays:
• Top 3 teams: 4 games
• Bubble teams: 3 games
• Bottom teams: 3 games
Ottawa plays:
• Top 3 teams: 4 games
• Bubble teams: 4 games
• Bottom teams: 2 games
So in order of easiest to toughest, the remaining strength of schedule would be:
1 - Toronto, 2 - Ottawa, 3 - New York (although the Sirens play Vancouver once and Seattle twice, the Charge play Seattle twice, while Toronto plays Vancouver once).
Toronto Effectively Controls the Race
Because Toronto plays Ottawa three times and New York twice, that means five of Toronto’s final nine games are against the teams they are chasing. Those are effectively playoff games.
So Toronto largely controls its own fate — if they win those games, they jump the teams directly. But the flip side: those games are also opportunities for Ottawa and New York to create separation.
The six remaining head-to-head games between the three teams will award 18 total points, but how those points are split matters as much as how many are available. Regulation wins create three-point swings and we've seen already how that can create chaos in the standings.
One factor working in Ottawa’s favor is simple math. The Charge have 10 games remaining, and two of them are against last-place Seattle, who look like sellers after trading Jessie Eldridge to Boston for Theresa Schafzahl. If Seattle’s recent form continues (and with key injuries slowing them down), those games could become an advantage for the Sceptres’ two direct rivals.
Elimination Scenarios
Vancouver’s ceiling is 54 points. Realistically, the Goldeneyes probably stay alive into early April, because the teams ahead of them are still taking points from each other.
But if the top four teams begin pulling away — especially if Ottawa or Toronto start stacking regulation wins — Vancouver could be eliminated with four or five games remaining.
Seattle, with a ceiling of 52 points, is the most likely first elimination. A reasonable estimate is that the Torrent could be mathematically eliminated within the next two weeks, possibly in early April, if the top three continue winning and one of Ottawa / Toronto / New York pulls away.
However, because Toronto, Ottawa and New York still play six head-to-head games, the elimination line will probably rise gradually before the league’s bottom teams are officially knocked out.
And the Gold Plan race would kick off for those teams vying for the #1 overall pick, likely Wisconsin's Caroline Harvey.
Clinching Scenarios
If we stick with our predicted requirement of 46 points to make the playoffs, Boston needs 7 more points, and Minnesota and Montreal at 36 would need 10 more points.
The reason the top teams might take a little longer to officially clinch is the number of head-to-head games between the Charge, Sceptres, and Sirens.
Those games guarantee that someone in that group keeps gaining points, which keeps the elimination line moving upward.
So while the top three look extremely safe, the math won’t lock them in until the bubble teams start losing ground. The Fleet need only two regulation wins + an OT loss or three wins of any kind, and could realistically clinch within the next 3–4 games if the bubble teams keep splitting points.