In the PWHL’s three-point system, the margin between qualification and collapse is thinner than it looks. With four playoff spots available, the only numbers that matter now are fourth place — and how high everyone else can realistically climb.
The Olympic break is over. The math has begun.
With the PWHL's format of three points for a regulation win, separation can happen quickly. A strong week can lift a team dramatically. A bad one can shrink a team’s ceiling overnight.
There are only two numbers that matter right now: the fourth-place total and each chasing team’s maximum possible points.
The Elimination Line
A team is finished when four teams have more points than it can possibly reach.
That ceiling is simple:
Current points + (3 × games remaining).
At the restart, no one is mathematically eliminated. But the margins are already visible. Toronto’s maximum possible total sits at 59. Vancouver can reach 61. Ottawa and Seattle can still get to 64.
That means: if fourth place climbs to 60, Toronto is done. At 62, Vancouver is out. At 65, Ottawa and Seattle would be eliminated.
PWHL Standings / Feb. 26, 2026Those numbers are not predictions. They’re tipping points.
Because regulation wins are worth three points, the line can move fast. A pair of clean wins creates as much separation as six overtime losses. Teams that bank three-point nights control their own math. Teams that don’t start watching their ceiling shrink.
The Clinch Line
The race works in reverse at the top.
Right now, the highest possible total among teams outside the playoff picture is 64. That makes 65 the working clinch number. Once a team reaches it, they’re clear.
No one is close yet. But once the ceilings below the line begin to collapse, the clinch number will fall with them.
The middle of the table is where things are volatile. A two-week swing can turn a comfortable cushion into scoreboard watching.
The Gold Plan Twist
When a team is officially eliminated, it begins earning Gold Plan points — points collected after elimination that determine draft order. The team that earns the most Gold Plan points gets the first overall pick.
There is no incentive to tank and later games will stay meaningful. Win after you’re out, and you improve your draft position. The playoff race and the draft race eventually run side by side.
What to Watch
Each week, we'll track fourth place, the shrinking ceilings below it, and the highest remaining ceiling outside the top four.
When the ceiling drops below the line, the race ends for someone. And when it does, a different race begins.