It's September, which means we have hockey this month! With that in mind, The Hockey News looks at the races for NHL Awards heading into the season. It is shaping up to be the best rookie class in years, a look into the Calder Trophy (Rookie of the Year) race.
It is rare that the NHL has a rookie class with this level of talent, and yet the Rookie of the Year race has a prohibitive favourite. This is one of the best rookie classes in years, loaded with elite talent and player who are expected to be perennial stars of the future. It is headlined by a generational talent in Connor Bedard, who grew up a Canucks fan, and is now a Chicago Blackhawk. Quite a twist of fate given who Vancouver's arch rival was during his formative years.
While Bedard is the clear headliner, there are too many exciting rookies to count. From Adam Fantilli to Logan Cooley and Devon Levi, there are so many intriguing options in the Calder Trophy race this season.
The Favourite: Connor Bedard
This should come as no surprise. Connor Bedard is special. At BioSteel camp this week, Bedard stood out as a top player on the ice with the likes of McDavid, Draisaitl, Mackinnon and Makar. What he lacks in height, he makes up for in strength, agility and smarts, routinely picking apart defenders and ripping the puck by goaltenders. It is only a summer tune-up camp, but Bedard looked more than ready to take on the world's best hockey players at the ripe age of 18.
As of the writing of this piece, Bedard is a -145 favourite to win the Calder Trophy. For context, no other award has a favourite in negative odds. Connor McDavid's Hart Trophy odds are longer at +125. Oddsmakers expect Bedard to register a point per game, a rare feat for a rookie. His goal total is set at 32.5, a number that has only been eclipsed a handful of times in the 21st century. There is not much more to say other than don't be surprised if Bedard exceeds all expectations and the Calder race is more of a coronation - he's that good. At -145, there isn't any value on his line to make it worth betting.
The Contenders
In a star-studded class of rookies, Bedard will have his hands full fending off the likes of Logan Cooley, Adam Fantilli and Matthew Knies - three players who were excellent at the college level last season.
Count me among the shocked parties when Anaheim passed on Adam Fantilli, but it produced quite a few smiles from the Columbus table. New coach Mike Babcock is no stranger to having a star rookie centre given he was the head coach of the Maple Leafs when Matthews won the Calder in 2016-17. Columbus is starved for talent up the middle, whilst having a plethora of young players at every other position. Fantilli should get the opportunity to see regular top-6 minutes and top special teams duty. Should he capitalize on his opportunities, he may rack up the points on what is expected to be a much-improved Columbus team. If Columbus is in the playoff conversation and Fantilli has 65+ points, he will in the Calder conversation with value on his current line of +1200.
Count me among the surprised that Logan Cooley opted to sign his entry-level deal after originally deciding to stay at school for another season. The Arizona Coyotes, to put it politely, are a mess. By the time Cooley's ELC is done, he may be playing in Houston or Salt Lake. Regardless, Cooley is a highly-skilled player that should be immediately impactful in a lineup starved of elite talent. He won't start the season on the top-line, but he may usurp Hayton for that role by Christmas. Similar to Mattias Maccelli last year, Cooley may fly under the radar because of where he plays, but he's a legitimate threat to win the Calder and his line of +1200 has serious value.
The second University of Minnesota player in this category is Matthew Knies. Leafs fans and media caught a glimpse of his talent and potential before he was RKO'd by Sam Bennett in the playoffs. A point-per-game player in both college seasons, Knies will likely get an opportunity to play in the top-6. In his short stint last season, he was more than capable of the role and will give Toronto a much needed scoring threat on the secondary power play unit. Unlike the three names before him, Knies has the luxury of talent around him - he won't be the focal point. With teams focused on shutting down Toronto's highly-paid superstars, Knies may have more room to operate and collect points. At +2500, there is value on a player many believe will be a key piece of the Leafs going forward.
The Defenders
These fellows get their own category because only five have won it in the 21st century. While defencemen have won twice in the last four seasons, Cale Makar is in a category of his own and Moritz Seider far exceeded any expectations in a relatively weak rookie class (receiving 170 of 195 first-place votes).
Brandt Clarke and Luke Hughes are the two to watch in this year's rookie race. Defencemen usually have a longer adjustment period at the NHL level than forwards, meaning it takes their game longer to translate. Coaches don't give young defencemen the same leash afforded to young forwards because mistakes are magnified.
It is exceedingly rare for a rookie to quarterback a power play and that is highly likely to continue as both players have established PP QBs ahead of them in Dougie Hamilton and Drew Doughty. This will eat into their point totals - a statistic critical to Calder consideration. Nevertheless, both players should see regular playing time and secondary special teams duty at some point this season.
The Wild Card
Not since Steve Mason has a goalie won Rookie of the Year. While it would be quite the surprise to see that happen, Devon Levi and Dustin Wolf are expected to perform well in their rookie seasons. Jesper Wallstedt isn't expected to play much in the NHL, but he and Yaroslav Askarov could find themselves on this list as soon as next year.
The Buffalo Sabres have not had a dependable goalie worth noting since Ryan Miller left the organization in 2014. Linus Ullmark and Robin Lehner were not who they became in Boston and Vegas, though they posted respectable numbers in Buffalo. Sabres fans hope that Devon Levi is the answer to the decade-long question. Levi posted a .905 in seven games last season and provided the Sabres with a quality start in five of those games. The Sabres are poised to challenge for the playoffs this season and similar to Steve Mason, if Levi can backstop his team to their first playoff berth in over a decade, it will be hard to overlook his Calder case.
Dustin Wolf has a harder case to make because Calgary has Markstrom ahead of him. Many, including me, questioned why Calgary didn't call-up Wolf last year when he was clearly the best performing goaltender in the Calgary organization. The Flames have Vladar and Markstrom, but Wolf has more than earned an NHL opportunity, and I am expected him to make the Flames out of camp. If the Calgary goalies continue their play from last season, Ryan Huska is familiar with Wolf and more likely to give him the reigns than Darryl Sutter would've been. It's an uphill battle for Wolf, but usurping Markstrom and leading Calgary to the playoffs in a pivotal year for the franchise may be enough to get him in the conversation. You can never count out the Canadian media narrative with this one, either.
Wrap Up
This is shaping up to be one of the best rookie classes in years. From Bedard to Cooley, Levi and some others not mentioned like David Jiricek, Olen Zellweger, Shane Wright, Logan Stankoven and Matt Coronato, there are too many intriguing rookie stories to count. The NHL is becoming more of a young man's game by the minute and this class of rookies is sure to dazzle this season.