The Montreal Canadiens are picking 5th overall. They need to take the best player available.
The poor unfortunate soul in a Shane Wright #51 Montreal Canadiens jersey sitting in front of me last year at the draft knows where this is going. Shane Wright was the consensus first overall pick until the week of the 2022 NHL draft. We may never find out why Montreal, New Jersey and Arizona opted to pass on Shane Wright, but one thing is for sure: Montreal cannot afford to draft anything but the best player available this year.
The 2023 crop of prospects is much deeper at the top, with many believing that up to six players would have gone first overall if eligible last year. Based on chatter around the industry, it is a foregone conclusion that Connor Bedard and Adam Fantilli will be long gone by the time Montreal's name is called.
That leaves three intriguing forwards for the Canadiens to select: Leo Carlsson, Will Smith and Matvei Michkov. The latter is a complete wild card this year and did not meet with Columbus. In hockey terms, he's not being taken third overall. These are the consensus three best players after Bedard and Fantilli. Some teams are high on Zach Benson and rightfully so. He is someone Montreal should take a long look at, if available.
The bottom line is at least two of Carlsson, Smith, Michkov and Benson will be available when Montreal makes their pick on Wednesday night. That is the group of players they should be picking from. They needn't concern themselves with a low- upside selection when two potential stars will be on the board.
There was an audible gasp in the crowd last year when Slafkovsky was selected and a smattering of boos. Montreal took the bigger, lower-ceiling player at the lower value position (wing). Michkov and Benson are wingers, but their skillset far outweighs the positional importance that would see them opt for David Reinbacher or Ryan Leonard over either of them. There are rumours that Montreal is high on Leonard and Reinbacher. Neither one of them have value at +165 and +210, respectively.
Montreal's lineup lacks elite talent outside of Cole Caufield's elite goal scoring ability. Nick Suzuki is a solid two-way centre, but would benefit from playing behind one of Carlsson or Smith on a contending team. He is not in the same echelon as the elite two-way pivots like Alexander Barkov. He is closer to Mikael Backlund, who benefits from playing behind Elias Lindholm in Calgary.
Montreal will have an opportunity to take a player with the potential to be an elite forward in the NHL. A true difference maker. If Carlsson is there, that's an easy selection. At +4000 , it is highly unlikely. If Will Smith is available, he'd be a great fit next to Cole Caufield. He spent all season feeding sharp-shooting line mate Gabe Perreault and should hav no trouble generating chemistry with Caufield. There is some value at +550 for him to pull the red sweater over his head.
At five, Matvei Michkov has no business being on the board. But he might be. If you told a GM they had the opportunity to draft a player similar to Nikita Kucherov, who also broke some of Ovechkin's records, they would be pulling hamstrings to get to the stage. Montreal is starved for elite talent and the potential of having both of Michkov and Caufield would be terrifying for opponents. Michkov has been a game breaker at every international tournament he's played in and has produced at an elite level in the KHL for a draft eligible player. Passing on him should raise serious questions.
Benson would be an option if Michkov and Carlsson are off the board. Scouts love Smith, but I like Benson's upside and his line has value at +1400. He's fallen in quite a few rankings this year, but there is no denying the raw talent and skill he possesses. With Adam Nicholas leading player development, Montreal needs to trust him to mold their draft pick into an NHL star. To do that, they need to give Nicholas the player with the highest upside.
Montreal cannot afford the safe pick. In a league that depends on elite skill, Montreal lacks it. They didn't get it with Slafkovsky last year and must get it with the fifth overall pick this year. A golden opportunity awaits if Montreal has the confidence to trust their development staff to turn a high-ceiling player into a difference maker for the red, white and blue.