The Sharks need to focus on skill, not risk

The San Jose Sharks own the 4th overall pick on Wednesday night and will have an intriguing group of players to select from. There are many ways the first three picks can go, but I'd expect Adam Fantilli to be gone by the time the Sharks step to the stage. 

Matvei Michkov is still the wild card in all of this, but if he's available at fourth overall, the Sharks shouldn't hesitate. They can afford to wait a few years for his contract to expire and will be able to maximize the value of his entry level contract when he comes over. At +320, there is value if Anaheim and Columbus choose the two big centres. 

Should Michkov be off the board, San Jose will have Leo Carlsson and Will Smith available to them. Teams are very high on Carlsson and San Jose has a distinct need for a top line centre in the next few years with Couture and Hertl aging. Carlsson is built for Western Conference play, will match up well against the centre depth of their California rivals and would be the best player available at four. The book believe he will be gone by then, giving us value at +260. 

The favourite at fourth overall is William Smith. He's a human highlight reel and more importantly, a coveted right-handed centre. Elite right-handed centres are rare in the NHL and his gifted puck handling ability makes him enticing at this spot. Most public draft rankings have him ranked between fourth and sixth overall, but the belief is that he is the best player available after Bedard, Fantilli and Michkov. If the top four teams opt to stay away from Michkov, that would open the door for Smith to go fourth. 

Make no mistake, whichever one of Carlsson or Michkov is available would be the best player on the board. There is calculated risk to Michkov, but he is more than worth it at fourth overall. Passing on him would be a mistake. The oddsmakers believe Smith is the favourite to go fourth at -165, which has little value given how volatile the top of this draft is likely to be.