Betting on who Columbus takes at #3
With the NHL Draft set for less than the week from today, perhaps the most intriguing pick is the one that belongs to the Columbus Blue Jackets. Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen has shown he's not afraid to buck the trend, taking Pierre-Luc Dubois over Jesse Puljujarvi in 2016 and Yegor Chinakhov in 2020. If anyone is going to make a splash, he's the GM I'd bet on.
Let's get this out of the way, first. The best player available will be whichever one of Adam Fantilli or Matvei Michkov is not taken by Anaheim. While the consensus does not expect Michkov to go at number two, there is some belief that Anaheim would be willing to wait for Michkov.
That would leave Columbus the choice between Adam Fantilli and Leo Carlsson. Fantilli has tremendous value at three given that Columbus is starved for a centre and he's the consensus best behind Connor Bedard. Fantilli would immediately be the top line centre in Columbus, leapfrogging Jenner and Roslovic. He is exactly the type of player Columbus needs to add to their plethora of young talent which includes Kent Johnson, Cole Sillinger, David Jiricek, and the aforementioned Chinakhov. At +800, there is value on Adam Fantilli to go third if Michkov lands in Anaheim.
If Fantilli is selected by Anaheim, I expect the Blue Jackets to go one of two ways: Leo Carlsson or Matvei Michkov. Carlsson fills the need in the middle of the ice as a big, two-way centre who can be impactful in all three zones. He's the consensus favourite to go third overall and would be a great fit in the Blue Jackets system. Both he and Fantilli are likely to play in the NHL next season, however Carlsson would likely benefit from another year in the SHL before making the jump. There is little value on Carlsson at 3, but he's the most likely selection in the event Fantilli is gone.
That brings us to Michkov. On talent alone, he shouldn't get by Anaheim, let alone Columbus. However, there is a major contract issue and the geopolitical climate is something teams consider when drafting. It hurt Danila Yurov and Gleb Trikozov last year and it may hurt Michkov next week. However, Michkov is drawing comparisons to Kucherov and is widely considered the best Russian prospect since Alexander Ovechkin. This is not the same.
Michkov is the type of player worth waiting for. He's a gam breaker. A get you out of your seat kind of player. The one that fans pay to watch. Getting that kind of player at third overall would be hard to pass up. Kekalainen showed he was unafraid to go off the board and take a Russian in 2020. Would he be willing to roll the dice in 2023 on a superstar calibre player? He's not risk averse. He takes calculated risks and so far, he's been right on both of his first round calculated risks. At +550, Michkov's line has serious value and is a bet worth taking.
Columbus is a wild card. They need talent up front, especially up the middle. If Adam Fantilli is there, I don't expect them to take longer than 19 seconds to lock their pick in. If he's not, I think Columbus is the most likely landing spot for Michkov before Washington at 8, barring a team trading up to select him, of course.