The Hockey News previewed expectations for each team for the 2023-24 season. Kevin, the AI model projected the standings for each division and playoff bubble teams. An explainer on how Kevin arrived at these projections.

Kevin! 

If you don't know by now, Kevin is the name of the deep learning, neural network model used by The Hockey News to understand player values, make projections and evaluate team play. The model projected the divisional standings for this season and which teams project to be in the hunt for Wild Card playoff spots in the spring. Why did certain teams end up where they did? Here's a look at how each division sets up and what a surprise may mean for the overall playoff picture. 

Understanding how Kevin operates is crucial. He's a new type of model that operates differently from a linear regression or decision tree model. Kevin uses previous seasons of data as well as ingesting data from the current season in real time and adjusts to a player's performance level and situation. The model needs only a few games to be considerably more accurate than a simple linear regression model. Because it accounts for current play, it makes a player or team's performance over the season trackable to the original prediction. You can determine a stretch of games where a player or team performed above or below the expectation to better understand how volatile or consistent a player or team is over the course of a season. 

For each division there are contenders, bubble teams, and basement dwellers. Bubble teams can jump up and surprise or falter and fall out. Contenders can find themselves in trouble with key injuries. For each division we look at what is most likely to happen and where a wrench can turn the division upside down. 

Atlantic Division

1. TORONTO
2. BOSTON
3. FLORIDA
4. TAMPA BAY
5. BUFFALO
6. OTTAWA
7. DETROIT
8. MONTREAL

This division has been strong for a few years between Boston, Tampa, Toronto and most recently, Florida. While Toronto has not enjoyed deep playoff runs, they own a top-5 points percentage in the NHL over multiple seasons. This season, with Boston losing nearly all of their centre depth, Toronto is projected to win the Atlantic Division. Barring significant injury to a key player, anything less than top of the division would be disappointing. 

Tampa was originally projected to finish second...until it was announced that Andrei Vasilevskiy would miss significant time. Losing a goaltender and replacing him with a below replacement level option would hurt any team. Going from Vezina contender to below replacement level is going to upset the apple cart. Tampa is still projected to make the playoffs as Kevin projects Vasilevskiy to return and find his form. However, should that not be the case, Tampa could find themselves battling for a playoff spot in the spring. Florida faces the same issue with questions surrounding Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour's health. Bobrovsky is always a question mark where consistency is concerned and Florida could find themselves on the outside looking in if Bobrovsky is anything less than .920 in the regular season. 

Buffalo and Ottawa are the two bubble teams on the rise. Should any of the contenders falter due to injury or regression, Buffalo is set up to make some noise. There is depth up front, two young studs on the blue line and a rookie goalie who may stabilize the crease for the first time in nearly a decade. Ottawa is less likely to jump into the divisional spots, but may find themselves in a Wild Card position if everything goes right. Their centre depth is a major question mark as it stands and Kevin is not as high on their ability to defend. 

Metropolitan Division

1. Carolina Hurricanes
2. New York Rangers
3. New Jersey Devils
4. Pittsburgh Penguins
5. New York Islanders
6. Washington Capitals
7. Columbus Blue Jackets
8. Philadelphia Flyers

The Canes are the class of the division and will remain there until the Rangers and Devils have a longer track record of consistency in the regular season. The Canes have consistently outplayed teams and won their division. Given the model is trained on past seasons right now, it should not be a surprise that the Canes are at the top. 

This can all change. The Rangers and the Devils are neck and neck for the other two division spots. Both teams have questions marks, albeit relatively minor compared to other divisions. The Devils defence core is a question because of the relative unknowns of young defencemen. Vanecek will consistently face the likes of Shesterkin and Sorokin who have both outplayed him over the past few seasons. Winning games in the division will be difficult and some of the season's best games are likely to come from the Metro. Any major injuries to these three teams will shake up the standings. Kevin's take: whichever team is the healthiest is likely to win the division.

The Penguins and Islanders are the bubble teams in the Metro with both capable of jumping up and grabbing the third divisional spot. It is most likely that Pittsburgh would do this on the back of their cast of Hall of Famers. They've done a better job filling out the pieces around the superstars, but questions remain in goal. The opposite is true of the Islanders who have one of the NHL's best goalies. Their biggest question is where the goals come from. If the Islanders can get good offensive seasons from Barzal, Horvat and Nelson, they will be in the hunt for a spot. 

Central Division

1. COLORADO
2. DALLAS
3. MINNESOTA
4. WINNIPEG
5. NASHVILLE
6. ST. LOUIS
7. ARIZONA
8. CHICAGO

Colorado and Dallas are far and away the class of the central. Both have made the Cup Final in recent years and have every piece of their core. They are balanced up front and on the backend with various moves over the off-season. Dallas can rely on Oettinger when needed, but performed well defensively under DeBoer. Colorado struggled with injuries last season and opted for a more balanced lineup after losing to Seattle in the playoffs in part due to depth. Both of these teams are likely to battle it out for the division crown. 

Minnesota and Winnipeg are the clear bubble teams, but another Saros campaign like last season may have Nashville in the conversation as well. The Central division is wide open after the top two teams and Kevin predicts that goaltending and consistency will be the determining factor. Minnesota has been the most consistent team and therefore, they have the edge for the third divisional spot. Winnipeg was up and down last season and is considered to be one of the NHL's most volatile teams this season. In simulations, they are projected to finish anywhere from second in the Central to sixth if enough goes wrong. Similar to Nashville, if Winnipeg were to lose their goaltender, that would spell the end of any playoff hopes. Hellebuyck and Saros are vital to the contention of their teams and without them, it may not be much of a race in the Central. 

Pacific Division

1. Edmonton Oilers
2. Vegas Golden Knights
3. Los Angeles Kings
4. Calgary Flames
5. Seattle Kraken
6. Vancouver Canucks
7. Anaheim Ducks
8. San Jose Sharks

The Oilers are clearly the best team in the division, particularly after the deadline and offseason additions. Ekholm has been an incredible find for the Oilers and with the expected breakout of Evan Bouchard, the Oilers are expected to win the Pacific Division. The obvious caveat is that if McDavid or Draisaitl miss any length of time, the Oilers are likely a Wild Card team. 

Fresh off their Stanley Cup, Vegas is projected to finish second in a tight race with the LA Kings. Adding Pierre-Luc Dubois in the off-season is a major acquisition for the Kings, while Vegas saw Reilly Smith traded to Pittsburgh. If, and it is a BIG if at this point, Mark Stone and Jack Eichel play a full season, Vegas should finish second and challenge the Oilers for top spot. If they do not stay healthy, it is plausible the Kings could jump up with the centre depth. The biggest question for the Kings is in goal, creating another volatile projection that sees the Kings anywhere between second and seventh in the Pacific. 

A few teams could surprise in this division. Calgary is the odds-on favourite to be a Wild Card team should the Pacific have a representative outside of the divisional spots. However, Anaheim made improvements to their team and may surprise teams with their young talent. It is a long shot, nonetheless. The other team is Vancouver. A superstar two-way centre in Pettersson, an excellent defenceman in Hughes and when healthy, a top goalie in Demko. If the Canucks can get superhuman performances and play adequate defensively, they will push for a playoff spot with Calgary and Seattle. 

The Lottery

If the team isn't mentioned in the breakdowns, they are starting the season with a less than 15% chance of making the playoffs. These teams are expected to be sellers and in the hunt for the number one overall pick in 2024. It would take a genuine miracle for those teams to make the playoffs. While it has happened before, Kevin only knows what has happened in the past and the past indicates the future does not include playoff trips for any of the teams not mentioned in the divisional breakdowns.