The final round of Olympic qualifying began on Thursday with 12 teams vying for the final spots available at the men’s ice hockey tournament at the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan and Cortina d’Ampazzo, Italy.
The results of the first two days of games have cut that field in half, and produced what are essentially three Olympic play-in games on Sunday: Latvia vs France, Denmark vs Norway and Slovakia vs Kazakhstan. The winners of those three games will all qualify.
One of the losers would qualify as well in the event Russia is barred from participating. I’m not going to speculate here on how likely that is, and I’m not going to speculate who that second-place team would be either, as there are numerous possibilities depending on who wins each game, by how much, and if any are decided in overtime or shootouts.
The first two days of action have seen a lot of close games but, in almost all cases, the favored teams have prevailed. That has resulted in all three groups having two teams that have won both of their games and two that have lost both of their games.
Here are the three games, in order of what time they face off on Sunday.
Latvia vs France, in Riga (16:00 CET, 17:00 EET, 10:00am EDT)
France and Latvia have been the clear class of Group E, outscoring Slovenia and Ukraine in their two games by nine and six goals, respectively.
The big news about Latvia as the tournament began was who wasn’t on the team. So far, Kristers Gudļevskis has done the job in goal but he hasn’t been seriously tested. The Latvians haven’t overwhelmed offensively but they rarely do. Captain Kaspars Daugaviņš and defenseman Uvis Balinskis of the Florida Panthers have four points each.
There was some concern when France dropped a pre-tournament game 9-0 to Norway, but so far, those fears haven’t been realized, with 7-2 and 5-1 wins over Ukraine and Slovenia. Alexandre Texier and Washington Capitals prospect Pierrick Dubé have led with five points each. Their shooting has been remarkably efficient with 12 goals on 56 shots, however, and Latvia will be much stronger defensively than what they’ve faced so far.
Latvia has qualified for five of the past six Olympics and will be favored to do so again on home ice in front of their famously passionate fans. France last qualified in 2002 and to break that draught, they either need the offense to continue firing or for goaltender Quentin Papillon to have the game of his life.
Denmark vs Norway, in Aalborg (16:30 CET, 10:30am EDT)
Norway enters the game with one more point than Denmark, but that will have no bearing on who wins the group. A Danish victory, even in overtime, will see them through. Of the three games, this one is the biggest coin toss.
Despite an impressive roster and playing at home, the Danes have been underwhelming in a 3-1 win over Great Britain and a 3-2 shootout win over Japan. While they’ve outshot both teams by decent margins, they haven’t seemed to have played with much urgency yet. Lars Eller is their only player to score twice. Fredrik Andersen has played both games in goal and will surely get the call again against Norway.
While much has been made of Norway’s recent youth movement, the team’s biggest story of this tournament is the production from its three oldest players – Patrick Thoresen, Mats Zuccarello and Ken Andre Olimb lead the tournament with four points each. Thoresen, their 40-year-old captain just about to start his last season, had a natural hat trick by the first minute of the second period against Great Britain.
This is a big Scandinavian rivalry with some recent Olympic qualifying history to it. In the last Olympic cycle, these two teams found themselves in the same situation, only the game was in Oslo, Norway. Denmark won that game 2-0. Now it’s Denmark hosting and you know the Norwegians would love to return the favor.
Slovakia vs Kazakhstan, in Bratislava (18:00 CET, 21:00 KAZ, noon EDT)
Again, both of these teams have won both games but they’ve looked different in doing so.
Despite some roster controversy before and during the tournament, the Slovaks entered as the Group D favorites and, for the most part, have looked like it. They survived a late push by Austria to win 2-1 and finally got their offense in gear against Hungary, winning 7-3. Their attack has been very balanced with nine different goal scorers and nobody with more than two points. Samuel Hlavaj has played both games in goal and has been solid when needed.
Kazakhstan, on the other hand, has been outshot in each game, but goaltender Andrei Shutov – playing in his home rink in Bratislava – has been brilliant, especially in a 2-1 win over Austria, where he made 43 saves. Offensively, Nikita Mikhailis recorded a hat trick against Hungary and defenseman Dmitri Breus also has three points.
Since the separation of Czechoslovakia, the Slovaks have qualified for eight straight Winter Olympics and are the defending bronze medalists. Since their independence, the Kazakhs have qualified twice and made the quarterfinals in 1998, but if they’re to qualify for the first time in 20 years, it’s probably going to require another monumental game from Shutov.
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