The Toronto Maple Leafs are facing a critical mass in 2026. Will they contend for the Stanley Cup playoffs, or pivot and start trading away veteran players? Buds GM Brad Treliving has to move in one direction or the other, as a new era begins in Leafs Land.
As the calendar year 2026 approaches, the Toronto Maple Leafs are in a delicate place. On the one hand, 2026 is full of promise, and the Maple Leafs could reward their long-suffering fan base with a strong second half of the 2025-26 regular season and another playoff appearance.
However, the other end of the competitive spectrum may also turn into a reality for the Leafs this year, as a prolonged losing streak at any point in the second half of the season could snuff out any remaining hope that Toronto can beat the odds and qualify for the Stanley Cup post-season this spring.
If that’s what happens, it could result in Maple Leafs GM Brad Treliving taking a hatchet to his roster and begin trading away significant pieces of Toronto’s puzzle.
Now, don’t take that to mean Treliving will trade core members Auston Matthews, William Nylander, John Tavares and Matthew Knies. Those four players are key components, and it would take the Buds years to adequately replace what they bring to the table.
However, the degree of fan anger that will boil over should Toronto fail to make the playoffs will almost certainly force Treliving's hand. It will require him to speak to some players who have some type of no-trade protection and ask them to waive it.
That means star defenseman Morgan Rielly could be the first to go, but certainly, not the last. Indeed, at a point in league history where veteran defensemen are hard to find, you can see potential scenarios where Rielly could dictate his future and engineer a trade to a team he believes will go on a deep playoff push. But he’s certainly not going to be the first to be thrown overboard by Treliving.
Other current Leafs who will likely be dealt by or before this year’s March 6 trade deadline include defenseman Brandon Carlo and wingers Max Domi, Calle Jarnkrok, Nick Robertson, Dakota Joshua, Matias Maccelli and Bobby McMann. Of that group, Carlo, Domi, Jarnkrok, and Joshua have partial no-trade clauses, but none that would prevent Treliving from moving them to between 20 and 24 teams.
Thus, while Treliving may not be able to get the sun and moon for any of those players, Toronto needs to restock its shelves with young players and draft picks. The only way to acquire those assets is to sacrifice some competitiveness this season, grit their teeth and push through the final 46 games this year, and take another stab at being a playoff team in 2026-27.
One way or another, 2026 is going to be a year of reckoning for the Maple Leafs. Right now, they’re playing (a) to keep coach Craig Berube employed, and (b) to keep the larger group together beyond this season. Leafs fans will probably be split as to what the best course is for this Buds team, but there’s no doubt there’s an ever-shrinking runway they’ve got to try and stick the landing.
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If they underperform to the same degree they’ve underperformed en route to posting a 16-15-5 record, the Maple Leafs don’t deserve to be comfortable. The NHL is a zero-sum business, and faltering as painfully as they’ve faltered makes the Leafs vulnerable to great change.
So as Toronto gets set to play its second half of the season, there’s no question the pressure is only going to increase from here. The Leafs have almost buried their hopes of playing in the post-season, and that’s a sorry state Maple Leafs fans have not been accustomed to in the Matthews/Nylander/Tavares era.
But that’s the reality of the situation. Time is precious for the Leafs as they attempt to turn things around. The bottom line is readily evident: they either demonstrate to the paying customer they’re still worth investing their time, money and emotion in, or management and ownership move in a different direction. 2026 will be cold-blooded for Toronto, and nothing short of a second-half surge is going to prevent their roster from being blown up and started on a different path than anyone envisioned they’d be on anytime soon.
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