Examining Oilers' Connor McDavid's Historic Start To The Season: Can He Maintain This Pace?

Jack Eichel, Nathan MacKinnon, Auston Matthews, and Kirill Kaprizov would all lead the Hart Trophy race in a normal year, or even a normal era. But as players and fans have come to expect, Connor McDavid's brilliance is shining brighter than ever.

Eichel and Matthews' 18 points in 11 games should be enough to put them in the lead in the Art Ross Trophy race. Kaprizov's 11 goals in 10 games should make him the favorite to win MVP.

But McDavid's ludicrous numbers are stealing all the attention, and rightfully so.

The three-time Hart Trophy winner, five-time Ted Lindsay Trophy winner, six-time Art Ross Trophy winner, and one-time Maurice 'Rocket' Richard Trophy winner has posted six goals and 26 points in the first nine games of the season. Of his 20 assists, 17 are primary.

On Tuesday, McDavid became the fourth-fastest player to reach 25 points and set an NHL record with 20 assists in the first nine games of an NHL season.

That's 0.67 goals per game and 2.89 points per game. His points per game are 0.89 higher than his teammate Evan Bouchard, the next-best player. McDavid's remarkable start has him on pace to score 56 goals and 243 points. No player other than Wayne Gretzky has ever scored 200 points, and his best total was 215 (2.77 points per game) in 1985-86. 

Additionally, only two players in NHL history have averaged more than 2.00 points per game in an entire NHL season: Gretzky and Mario Lemieux. McDavid has come close before, averaging 1.88 points per game in 2020-21 and 1.87 in 2022-23. 

While scoring 243 points is practically impossible, he has more attainable goals to aim for.

The 200-point mark seems far-fetched. Lemieux came closest to that plateau in 1988-89, scoring 199 points in 74 games. But outside of those two, Steve Yzerman and McDavid own the next two best point-producing seasons. Yzerman hit 155 in 1988-89, and McDavid scored 153 in 2022-23. 

While 200 points would take a mammoth performance, a 2.00 points-per-game average could be in the cards. If McDavid played all 84 games, he'd need at least 168 points, a total no one has matched since Lemieux and Gretzky in 1988-89. 

The real question is whether McDavid can stay healthy and play all 84 games, and whether he can keep up the blistering pace all season. He's been relatively healthy for most of his career and played in all 82 games last season. Different sets of numbers will show whether he can maintain that pace. 

To start, his 27.3 shooting percentage is likely unsustainable. His best shooting percentage is 18.2 percent, but McDavid is taking fewer shots than last season. In 2025-26, he averaged 3.73 shots per game; this season, that number is 2.44. If his shots on goal increase while his percentage dips, he can mitigate the drop-off. 

McDavid's analytics this season are eye-popping. According to NaturalStatTrick.com, the Edmonton Oilers are outscoring their opponents 18-4 with McDavid on the ice at 5-on-5. They have a Corsi For percentage of 60.30 percent, an expected goals percentage of 56.11 percent, and a high-danger chances for percentage of 59.02 percent.

To say the ice is tilted when McDavid is on is an understatement, and these numbers were higher prior to a poorish game against the Minnesota Wild.

In addition to a career-best statistical start, McDavid is off to a career-best analytical start, controlling the game at a level he never has before. 

Like his individual shooting percentage, the Oilers' 24.32 shooting percentage with McDavid on the ice is likely unsustainable. That's the second-highest among players who have appeared in at lest three games this season.

McDavid is creating chances at an unprecedented rate, and the Oilers are converting them at an unprecedented rate. 

Another area that was bound to improve was his power-play points. On Tuesday, the Oilers scored three power-play goals, with McDavid picking up primary assists on each. The Oilers are clicking at 31.0 percent, ranking second in the NHL, but as a team, they've recorded nine power-play goals.

As the team gets more man-advantage opportunities, McDavid will continue to add more points. 

McDavid is showing no signs of letting up. His determination to win a Stanley Cup is still at an all-time high, he is in great shape, remains in the 99th percentile in all NHL EDGE skating metrics, and is averaging his highest time on ice of his career. 

A lot has to go right for McDavid to maintain his pace, but if any player can do it, it would be arguably the greatest offensive player the NHL has ever seen.

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