The Toronto Maple Leafs made a huge splash this summer by signing star goalie Sergei Bobrovsky. But with Bobrovsky approaching 40 in a couple of years, what's reasonable for the Leafs to expect out of him on the ice in Toronto next year?
The Toronto Maple Leafs made extensive roster changes this summer, with several new members, including 2026 first overall draft pick Gavin McKenna, now part of the lineup. But the most consequential change for the Maple Leafs is in the crease, where goalie Joseph Woll and Dennis Hildeby were traded in separate deals to the Philadelphia Flyers and Tampa Bay Lightning, respectively.
Leafs GM John Chayka was dealing from a position of strength by trading goalies. Ultimately, Toronto got wiser in that position with the signing of two-time Stanley Cup champion Sergei Bobrovsky.
Bobrovsky will be 38 when the 2026-27 regular season begins, but the Maple Leafs saw enough from him to sign him to a three-year deal worth $7 million per season.
But what can Toronto expect out of Bobrovsky this coming season? Let’s answer that by looking at high-impact netminders who’ve played into their late-thirties and early-forties in the NHL's Modern Era, and seeing what’s fair to expect from Bobrovsky.
One example is longtime Florida Panthers and Vancouver Canucks star Roberto Luongo, who played until he was 40 years old.
Playing 40 games in 2016-17, Luongo posted a save percentage of .915 and a goals-against average of 2.68, ending that campaign as a 38-year-old. The following season, Luongo made 35 appearances, posting a .929 SP and a 2.47 GAA. And in his final season, Luongo’s numbers dropped to a .899 SP and a 3.12 GAA in 43 appearances. His numbers weren't great in his last campaign, but his SP then would count as above average in today's NHL.
Meanwhile, fellow Hockey Hall of Famer and longtime New Jersey Devils goalie Martin Brodeur played until he was nearly 43 years old. And although his numbers generally declined for the final few seasons of his career, Brodeur did still have an SP of at least .901 in essentially every season of his career.
In limited usage in his final season with the St. Louis Blues, Brodeur posted an SP of .899 and a GAA of 2.87 – numbers well below his lofty standards. But Brodeur still was strong toward the end of his career, as he had a GAA of 2.45 or better in seven of his last nine seasons.
Another example is former Boston Bruins goaltender Tim Thomas, who played until he was 40. In Thomas’ third-to-last season, he posted a .938 SP and a 2.00 GAA in 57 regular-season games. Also, in 25 playoff games that season, Thomas had a stunning .940 SP and 1.98 GAA with four shutouts, helping Boston win a Stanley Cup.
When he was 37 years old in the 2011-12 campaign, Thomas had a .920 SP and 2.36 GAA in 59 games. In his final season – split between the Panthers and Dallas Stars – Thomas played 48 games, and he had a .908 SP and 2.88 GAA.
Finally, Los Angeles Kings icon Jonathan Quick – who retired this past year after an 18-season career – also saw his numbers worsen as he neared the end of his career.
When he was a 38-year-old with the New York Rangers in 2023-24, Quick generated an SP of .911 and a GAA of 2.62 in 27 games. The following season, Quick’s numbers fell to an .893 SP and a 3.17 GAA in 24 appearances. And in his final season in the NHL with the Blueshirts, Quick posted an .891 SP and 3.09 GAA in 25 contests.
So, with that evidence, it’s fair to believe Bobrovsky’s numbers will eventually dip. Indeed, his numbers have already been dipping over the past three seasons.
In 2023-24, Bobrovsky appeared in 58 games with the Panthers, putting up a .915 SP and 2.37 GAA. In 2024-25, he posted a .905 SP and a 2.44 GAA in 54 appearances. And this past season, Bobrovsky’s numbers fell to a .877 SP and 3.07 GAA in 52 outings, the worst of his career.
With Anthony Stolarz as the second half of the anticipated Maple Leafs’ goalie tandem, coach Jim Hiller may choose to limit Bobrovsky’s usage to keep him as fresh as possible for the 2026-27 playoffs.
Bobrovsky played just over two-thirds of the games in the 2023-24 regular season, but we wouldn’t be surprised if the 32-year-old Stolarz gets more opportunities this coming year than he has in the past, if he can remain healthy. And with Toronto’s defense undergoing significant change, Bobrovsky and Stolarz are going to be looked to for stability and calm between the pipes.
Ideally, getting to or above the .900 SP mark is what the Maple Leafs want to see from Bobrovsky in his first year in Toronto. The Leafs don’t need him to steal the show, but if Bobrovsky maintains his average and gets the Leafs into the playoffs, Bobrovsky’s contract will be well worth it for Chayka and the organization.
For action-packed issues, access to the entire magazine archive and a free issue, subscribe to The Hockey News at THN.com/free. Get the latest news and trending stories by subscribing to our newsletter here. And share your thoughts by commenting below the article on THN.com or creating your own post in our community forum.
