The Ottawa Senators are surging late in this season, and they have the upper hand in the Stanley Cup playoff race. Three teams they beat this past week could be a first-round opponent.
For a long while this season, the Ottawa Senators were well out of a Stanley Cup playoff position.
Ottawa was 12th in the Eastern Conference on Feb. 1 and 11th by March 1.
But since March 4, the Senators have gone 12-5-1 – and in the past week, Ottawa beat the Buffalo Sabres, Carolina Hurricanes and Tampa Bay Lightning by a combined total of 16-6.
Not only did those wins improve their chances of making the playoffs in the second wild-card spot, but they showed three potential first-round opponents they won't be fodder.
If you're a Senators fan, you have to be thrilled with the way things are shaking out, regardless of which first-round opponent they get.
There's still no guarantee Ottawa makes the playoffs. They're only two points ahead of the ninth-place Columbus Blue Jackets and three points ahead of the Detroit Red Wings, New York Islanders and Washington Capitals.
But the Senators' patience and consistent pressure have finally opened the floodgates. And if you're a team the Sens might take on in Round 1 of the post-season, you have to be worried that Ottawa's momentum carries them past you.
Not only are the Senators surging at the right time of year, but they're getting a huge boost Thursday night against the injury-ravaged Florida Panthers when star defenseman Thomas Chabot returns to the lineup.
Chabot's return is surprising in that it's only been a little more than two weeks since he suffered a broken forearm on March 23 against the New York Rangers. The initial timeline on Chabot's return was four to eight weeks, but the Sens have been winning big games without him, and now he gets to jump back on board and provide the skill and smarts he's known for.
Ottawa's final four regular-season games are all very winnable, with games against the Panthers, New York Islanders, New Jersey Devils and Toronto Maple Leafs.
So while we may be getting ahead of ourselves by presuming the Senators will be playing playoff hockey in a short period of time, we have to say the Sens could put together a first-round upset against a stronger regular-season team.
The Sabres and Lightning are battling for first place in the Atlantic Division, and they're only two and four points behind the Hurricanes for first place in the conference, respectively. The highest the Senators can clinch is the first wild-card spot, so it's likely that any of those three squads could be who they take on first if they make it in.
The Sens beat Buffalo 4-1 last Thursday. And although Ottawa went 0-1-1 against Buffalo earlier this season, those two losses came in mid-October and late December – at a point when Ottawa was struggling defensively.
Meanwhile, the Senators trounced the Lightning 6-2 this past Tuesday, and they beat the Hurricanes 6-3 last Sunday.
Ottawa has gone 2-1-0 against the Bolts and 1-2-0 against the Canes. Although the Sens didn't throttle the Sabres, Lightning or Hurricanes in all their meetings this season, they held their own.
The Senators have to feel they can hang with any opponent in Round 1, and if star goalie Linus Ullmark gives them strong play, they can have better netminding than the Sabres and Canes. Ullmark had a .933 save percentage against the Lightning and a .955 SP against the Sabres, while his .893 SP against Carolina was good enough for the win.
A first-round series against Carolina, Buffalo or Tampa Bay will give the Senators a major challenge. But like their opponents, Ottawa has a top-eight offense this season, averaging 3.35 goals-for per game. Though the Hurricanes, Lightning and Sabres are ahead of them in that department, it's not by all that much.
Yes, Ottawa has the worst goals-against average of the four teams at 3.06, but the Sabres are a fraction better than them at 2.99, and the Hurricanes aren't that much better at 2.95. The Lightning (2.81) are significantly better, but we've said all along that the Lightning will be the team no East team wants to play in any round, let alone Round 1.
That being said, since March 4, the Senators have allowed the fourth-fewest goals against per game, at 2.56. They've also allowed just 23.8 shots against per game in that span, the fourth-fewest.
So, there's no good reason the Senators can't put a serious scare into whoever they take on in the first round. Whether they're the second wild-card team or whether they overtake the Boston Bruins for the first wild-card spot, the Sens have the talent to engineer an upset.
This past week showed just that.
For action-packed issues, access to the entire magazine archive and a free issue, subscribe to The Hockey News at THN.com/free. Get the latest news and trending stories by subscribing to our newsletter here. And share your thoughts by commenting below the article on THN.com or creating your own post in our community forum.