It's never easy to predict more than one or two legitimate candidates for the NHL's rookie of the year, and it seems like someone always comes out of nowhere to contend for it. Who are the best choices to do so this season?
As the late, great Norm MacDonald once pointed out, no one's ever been rookie of the year twice in a row. That means every season brings with it a fresh opportunity for a young player to take the NHL by storm and put a stake in the ground as the most outstanding rookie of the year.
Winning the Calder Trophy isn't easy, because it requires guys to be precocious, consistently reward their coaches for putting them in a position to succeed, and often be on teams where they can both contribute to team success and be surprisingly good individually.
Big names like Porter Martone or Gavin McKenna are perhaps the most likely to win this award, but because of how it usually works with rookies, they probably don't even have a 30 percent chance right now. So in that way, every rookie is kinda-sorta a "dark horse."
With that in mind, who are some more unexpected players who might get that chance, and pick up the ball and run with it? Here are a few potential Calder candidates you might not expect:
1. James Hagens, Boston Bruins
Hagens got very limited time in the NHL at the end of last season, but looked good in the AHL playoffs for Providence, and seems poised to grab a spot on Boston's roster out of camp.
While he's a natural center, he's mostly been used as a winger since turning pro. And on Boston's left side, there's probably a good amount of opportunity to grab a top-six role. JJ Peterka and Casey Mittelstadt are ahead of him, but injury or underperformance, plus Hagens' natural versatility could get him a longer look and some power-play time.
It's maybe a little far-fetched, but it's not impossible to see him getting some reps with someone like David Pastrnak or Morgan Geekie, two guys who have a ton of goals over the last couple of seasons. That could set Hagens up really well.
If that happens, and Boston is a playoff team, he could end up in a good situation to compete for the Calder.
2. Bradly Nadeau, Carolina Hurricanes
Nadeau is in an interesting situation with the reigning and defending champs.
He went nuts for them down in the AHL last season (27 goals and 56 points in 52 regular-season games, and 7 goals and 17 points in 21 playoff appearances) plus a cup of coffee with the big club.
The Hurricanes have to give him some runway at the NHL level. Despite their depth, the fact that he can play both wings probably puts him in a position to find ice time next to some pretty effective players.
Especially with Seth Jarvis currently slated to miss the start of the season, Nadeau might be in a prime position to show off his talents and establish himself as an everyday player they can't afford to send down when Jarvis returns.
For the Hurricanes, it seems like a bet worth taking. It might not work out, but you've got to try it.
3. Jacob Fowler, Montreal Canadiens
Yes, he is still technically a rookie, having only played 18 games last year between the regular season and playoffs, and the post-season performance was in relief.
And boy did he look great in those 17 regular-season games: .908 save percentage, and 7.1 goals saved above expected according to MoneyPuck.com. Among goalies with at least 15 appearances, his GSAx per 60 minutes (0.421) ranked ninth in the league.
Considering that this is not a position at which 21-year-olds typically excel, or are even given much opportunity, Fowler's performance stands out as all the more impressive.
That said, the Canadiens' rookie goaltender last season, Jakub Dobes, probably stands in the way of Fowler's true Calder campaign. Since 1932, only 16 goalies have been named rookie of the year, and Fowler would be the first since Steve Mason in 2008-09.
But an injury or underperformance for Dobes (not particularly likely, in my opinion) would open the door for Fowler in a big way, especially because Montreal is likely to rack up a lot of wins no matter who's between the pipes.
That said, even 40ish appearances for Fowler could get him into the conversation, at a bare minimum.
For action-packed issues, access to the entire magazine archive and a free issue, subscribe to The Hockey News at THN.com/free.
See more of The Hockey News on Google and save us as a preferred source. Get the latest news and trending stories by subscribing to our newsletter here. And share your thoughts by commenting below the article on THN.com or creating your own post in our community forum.
