Macklin Celebrini just handed the San Jose Sharks one of the more interesting pre-gifts in NHL memory: the unofficial promise of a "hometown discount".

To receive that from a 20-year-old phenom who just posted a franchise-record 115 points and finished with the second-most goals in Sharks history is huge.

Obtaining it right after Leo Carlsson signed an $18 million-per-season offer sheet that was matched by the Anaheim Ducks, a $15 million average annual value contract handed to Connor Bedard by the Chicago Blackhawks, and with salaries ballooning as a result, is beyond huge.

But what does a “hometown discount” actually look like?

The question isn't whether Celebrini is willing to take less than another team would gladly offer — it's what a discount even looks like for a player who could plausibly reset the market entirely.

Start with the ceiling. Carlsson just set the new benchmark at five years, $90 million — an NHL-record $18 million AAV. Celebrini's actual production arguably justifies matching or exceeding that. So "discount," in his case, doesn't mean cheap. It means leaving real money on the table. But how much?

Sidney Crosby has taken bargain deals with an $8.7 million cap hit since 2008 to keep the Pittsburgh Penguins competitive. Nathan MacKinnon barely moved the market in 2022 with the Colorado Avalanche, signing for $12.6 million — just $100,000 above the next-highest-paid player at the time.

Connor McDavid did the Edmonton Oilers a similar favor last year, taking $12.5 million instead of chasing the biggest possible raise. Every one of those numbers came in well under what term-and-talent should have commanded at the time they signed.

But the market isn’t the same now. 

Numbers like Carlsson's are going to start being the new normal in the NHL. A Crosby-style bargain deal isn’t likely in the cards.

"Obviously, guys want to get paid - as they should, because you've got to make a living," Celebrini said. "There are guys that deserve those numbers that are getting them, but of course, you want to put your team in the best spot possible, where you give a team the ability to make moves necessary to win. I think all that goes into the decision." 

This reads more like someone is good at making the gesture while still landing close to market rate. A "discount" is relative, but when you're the measuring stick, it changes things. 

Given that many believe he could be the first player to be offered $20 million per season, realistically, that puts a Celebrini extension somewhere in the $17–19 million range. If he’s really out to send a message, he’ll sign at $17.5 million or just shy of $18 million so that the narrative will be, ‘wow, he took less than Carlsson.’

San Jose is lucky that Celebrini has the team in mind, which Carlsson didn’t. Does that mean that we see a $14 million AAV on a new contract? Not even close. 

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