As NHL teams try to lock up a Stanley Cup playoff spot, there could be a couple of teams that get to the top of their division who are new to that place in the standings, and to the playoffs, for that matter. Which of those teams is most likely to fall in the first round of the playoffs?
As the NHL’s 2026 Stanley Cup playoff picture begins to firm up, there could be some newcomers – not just to the playoffs in general, but to the very top of the divisional standings.
For instance, in the Eastern Conference, the Buffalo Sabres are neck-and-neck with the Tampa Bay Lightning for top spot in the Atlantic Division, while the Carolina Hurricanes have a stranglehold on the Metropolitan Division. All three of those teams are within just a couple of points of each other to lead the East, so it's unclear who will finish on top and face the second wild-card opponent.
As noted, the Lightning are also very much in the race to win the Atlantic Division, so the Sabres could drop down the standings and be looking at a first round series against the Montreal Canadiens, Boston Bruins or Ottawa Senators, among others.
But for argument’s sake, let’s say it’s the Sabres and Hurricanes who win their division in the East, and the Anaheim Ducks and Colorado Avalanche win their division in the Western Conference. With that said, there’s an intriguing question when it comes to projecting which division-leading team is most likely to be eliminated in the first round.
And that team is the Ducks.
We’re not writing this to run down what GM Pat Verbeek has built with the Ducks. Anaheim has been one of the most pleasant surprises in the league this season, and the needle is moving in the right direction for this young team. But it is fair to project that the Ducks are going to be the division leader sent home for the summer after the first round.
Alex Killorn (Timothy T. Ludwig-Imagn Images)For starters, it almost assuredly isn’t going to be the Avalanche who lose in the opening round. Colorado has been as dominant this year as any team in the league, and while they have had some adversity of late, the Avs have a healthy lead on the league. They’re going to be a deserved heavy favorite to at least get to the second round.
Meanwhile, the Hurricanes are also a good bet to win their first-round series, regardless of who their opponent is. So long as Carolina gets solid goaltending from Brandon Bussi and/or Frederik Andersen, they’re going to be a handful no matter who they land in the first round.
So really, then, it’s between the Sabres and Ducks as the team most likely to lose in the first round. And at this point, it’s perfectly reasonable to say that Anaheim is more likely to run into a wall.
The Sabres will be making their first playoff appearance in 15 years, and they’ve been the best team in the NHL since Dec. 1. Had the Sabres not started the year 11-14-4, they’d be closer to the Avalanche by now than any other team.
So yes, the Ducks are the division-leading team most likely to lose in the first round. But they’re still a team that is finding its identity, and their core is still relatively young. But with that said, Verbeek and the Ducks probably like that people are arguing his team will lose after one round.
Being underdogs will take some of the pressure off of the Ducks, but they’re going to be facing a team out of a group of teams that includes the Los Angeles Kings, Seattle Kraken, Nashville Predators, Utah Mammoth, Vegas Golden Knights and Edmonton Oilers.
Most of those teams have been playing desperation hockey for weeks now, just to stay in the thick of the playoff race. So the Ducks may not have the desired edge to their game, no matter who they take, that their opponent is going to have.
Anaheim is a well-coached team under Joel Quenneville, and while their offense is solid, they’ve got to improve defensively with a 3.28 goals-against average. We all know that defense wins you games in the playoffs, and defense is not what this Anaheim team is best at.
To be sure, brighter days are ahead for the Ducks. Verbeek has wisely managed his cap space, as Anaheim has $41.4 million in projected space next season, according to puckpedia.com. They’re going to be able to make a splash either via trades or free agency, and they’re going to be at least as strong as they are this year.
But sometimes you have to take baby steps as an organization, and that’s where the Ducks are at this point. They’re not on the same level as Colorado or the Dallas Stars or Minnesota Wild, and Anaheim will need time, patience and experience before they get there. The Ducks are a team on the rise, but sometimes rising doesn’t take you straight to the top.
For action-packed issues, access to the entire magazine archive and a free issue, subscribe to The Hockey News at THN.com/free. Get the latest news and trending stories by subscribing to our newsletter here. And share your thoughts by commenting below the article on THN.com or creating your own post in our community forum.