Sergei Bobrovsky's Spectacular Playoff Performance Could Impact the Narrative Around John Gibson
Sergei Bobrovsky could be the frontrunner for the Conn Smythe if the Panthers win three more games and hoist the Stanley Cup. Just three years ago, his play and contract were seen as immovable and undesirable, a familiar narrative to the one surrounding Ducks' goaltender John Gibson.
Florida Panthers goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky (35) shut the door on the Edmonton Oilers in game one of the Stanley Cup Final on Saturday evening in Florida. He stopped 32 of 32 shots and saved 3.74 goals above expected (GSAx), backstopping the Panthers to a 3-0 victory. The Panthers are now three wins away from hoisting the Stanley Cup, and Bobrovsky might be the current frontrunner to win the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoff MVP with a .915 SV% and 7.62 GSAx.
If we were to turn the clocks back three years to the 2021 playoffs, Sergei Bobrovsky would be seen as a liability in net for the Panthers, and his seven-year, $70 million contract as one of the most immovable albatrosses in the NHL. A similar narrative has emerged around Anaheim Ducks' talented goaltender John Gibson over the last few seasons.
Like Bobrovsky, John Gibson (30) signed a sizable contract that took effect at the start of the 2019 season. Gibson's deal consisted of an eight-year term and an average annual value (AAV) of $6.4 million.
At the time of their signings (2019), both goaltenders could be seen as elite among their peers and if put in the right surroundings, could win playoff series singlehandedly and backstop their teams to deep Stanley Cup runs in the playoffs. To that point in Gibson's career, he boasted a career .921 SV% and 89.82 GSAx in six seasons with the Ducks. Those numbers weren't dissimilar to Bobrovsky's .919 SV% and 98.24 GSAx in nine NHL seasons with the Philadelphia Flyers and Columbus Blue Jackets. Bobrovsky won Vezina Trophies in 2013 and 2017.
Bobrovsky signed with the Florida Panthers on July 1, 2019, and became the second goaltender in NHL history to carry an AAV of $10 million or more (Carey Price). Two years into his seven-year deal, Bobrovsky's SV% was .902 (0.07 below league average) and his GSAx was -28.63. He lost his starting job in the 2021 playoffs as he allowed 10 goals on 63 shots in three games in the Panthers' first-round series against the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Since then, the Panthers made a change behind the bench (then another), Bobrovsky earned back his starting role, the Panthers won the President's Trophy in 2021-22, and have made back-to-back Stanley Cup Final appearances in 2023 and 2024. As quickly as the narrative pendulum around "Bob" swung from elite goaltender to liability, it's now seemingly swung all the way back.
John Gibson's traditional and underlying numbers dropped significantly in the 2019-20 season and they've yet to recover. The Ducks had promoted then San Diego Gulls' (Anaheim's AHL affiliate) head coach Dallas Eakins to head coach of the Ducks. The style and system implemented after that didn't align with Gibson's skillset.
Since the 2019-20 season and through the 2022-23 season, the Ducks had become increasingly leaky in their defensive structure. Over that time, the overwhelming number of seam passes, odd-man rushes, one-timers, screens, tips, etc. had taken a toll on Gibson and his stats.
In June 2023, the Ducks hired Greg Cronin as their new head coach. With him, he brought more attention to detail and accountability in the defensive zone in front of their goaltenders. Although it came with growing pains, his man-to-man coverage scheme limited the number of dangerous looks allowed by the Ducks in 2023-24.
Though Gibson's numbers dropped further in 2023-24, he posted a .906 SV% at 5v5 and saved .59 goals above expected in 44 starts.
He, along with the rest of the Ducks, struggled on the penalty kill. The Ducks had the 31st-ranked penalty kill as they continued to allow dangerous passes through seams and struggled to box out attackers in front of their goaltenders.
To those who pay close attention, Gibson remains one of the more talented goaltenders in the NHL. He consistently displays elite athleticism and situational awareness in the Anaheim crease.
Perhaps his most valuable attribute is the ability to limit the amount of "soft goals" he allows, very few backbreakers or squeakers get through Gibson. He makes the saves he's supposed to and regularly gives his team a chance to win. In the modern NHL, that's all a team can ask for and it's a luxury seldom offered by many netminders.
As the Ducks continue to solidify their system, develop within it, and begin their climb out of the league's gutter and toward playoff contention, it can be expected that Gibson's numbers will improve congruently.
The Ducks are expected to deploy more of an even tandem between Gibson and young, World Champion netminder Lukas Dostal (23) in 2024-25. If the team in front of him continues to improve and limit the high-danger chances he faces, Gibson would prove a valuable piece in the Ducks growth toward a playoff push in the next couple of seasons.
Gibson's talent hasn't wavered despite the Ducks dwelling in the basement of the league standings over the past six seasons. If and when John Gibson returns to the crease for a playoff series, there's a good chance he will follow in Bobrovsky's footsteps and narratively return to legitimacy as a viable option in net for a contending team. He could very well steal a handful of playoff games or even a series if given the opportunity.