The “dog days” of the NHL offseason are in full swing. The only remaining “musts” on the agendas of general managers league-wide are to determine the futures of their remaining restricted free agents and finalize their depth chart heading into training camps in mid-September.
The Anaheim Ducks have three roster players (Mason McTavish, Drew Helleson, Lukas Dostal) who are RFAs in need of new deals and two more in the organization (Sam Colangelo, Tim Washe).
However, if Ducks GM Pat Verbeek were one to get a head start on future business (something he’s proven not a fan of in his tenure as an NHL GM), July 1 marked the date where players with contracts that expire in the summer of 2026 became eligible to sign extensions.
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Projecting Contracts for Ducks Remaining RFAs
Next summer is shaping up to be a seismic one for the Ducks franchise. Five players (Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier, Jackson LaCombe, Pavel Mintyukov, Olen Zellweger) considered to be part of their future core, the core that will be in their primes when the team’s contending window is open, will become RFAs on July 1, 2026.
These five players are just entering or are about to enter what is considered their NHL primes. If there were ever a “team-friendly” deal to be had, and one believes that they will all become the players the organization hopes, the time to sign them to as long a deal as possible is now. Teams that operate this way are betting on the players to hit or come close to their projected ceilings before they reach them as to keep costs down and increase flexibility elsewhere within the roster.
Verbeek has only extended one player before the conclusion of the season in which that player’s contract was due to expire: Frank Vatrano.
The likelihood of Verbeek tweaking his approach remains low, but it is an exercise worth exploring.
AFP Analytics has been fairly accurate when projecting both the length of contracts and the percentage of the cap for an individual deal. Analyzing their projections can be an interesting exercise when attempting to determine what these key pieces to the Ducks’ roster will ultimately sign for.
For the first part of this two-part series, we’ll examine the pair of forwards that the team has significantly spent on to this point in their careers and that they will look to as drivers when they approach and enter their primes: Leo Carlsson and Cutter Gauthier.
Leo Carlsson
AFP Analytics Projection: 7 Years, $9.36 million AAV
Simply put, Carlsson (20) is the Ducks’ franchise player. He’s the player they selected with the highest draft pick in franchise history, he’s the one they created a unique development plan for in his rookie season, the center of most team marketing campaigns, and heading into his third NHL season at just 20 years old, he’s the player most expected to leap to superstardom.
After some injury issues in his rookie 2023-24 season that saw him tally 29 points (12-17=29) in 55 games, Carlsson showed flashes of dominance early in his sophomore season, but the production didn’t follow.
Team Sweden, very familiar with what he brings on the ice, selected him to represent his home nation at the NHL’s 4 Nations Faceoff.
He seemed to become increasingly more confident and comfortable as the 2024-25 season progressed. In the few games prior to “4 Nations” and through the end of the season, Carlsson scored 29 points (11-18=29) in his final 31 games, a 77-point pace extrapolated to an 82-game schedule.
He went on to represent Sweden at the 2025 IIHF World Championships, where he scored ten points (4-6=10) in ten games and finished third on his team in scoring en route to a bronze medal.
Though he still needs improvement in areas like wall battles, changing of pace, and spatial awareness, the ceiling for where his game can reach is in the stratosphere. If the Ducks were able to sign him this summer to a contract with either a seven or eight-year term at an AAV under $10 million, it would quickly become one of the better contracts in the NHL, and his value would likely well exceed that number when the team is eventually in their contending window.
Author’s Prediction: 6 Years, $8.33 million AAV (Signed in early December)
If there were a single player for whom Verbeek would break his pattern and get a long-term deal done before the conclusion of the upcoming season, it would be Carlsson. However, players haven’t been signing for max-terms at the frequency they had in previous years, as they look to capitalize on a seemingly ever-rising salary cap.
Modeled after Aleksander Barkov’s contract coming off of his ELC, the player Carlsson is often compared to (though proving to play significantly different styles, the impacts on their franchise projects similarly), six years buys the Ducks some stability with their star player, and they’d also be “buying” two UFA years.
Six years would afford Carlsson flexibility as well, as his third contract, a contract that would likely dwarf this one, would kick in when he’s just 27 years old.
Cutter Gauthier
AFP Analytics (Long Term) Projection: 7 years, $7.25 million AAV
Similar to Carlsson, the Ducks organization has invested a substantial amount into Gauthier (21). He cost a former sixth overall pick (Jamie Drysdale) and a 2025 second-round pick (40th overall, Jack Murtagh) to pry him away from the Philadelphia Flyers in Jan, 2024.
Gauthier stumbled out of the gates in his rookie 2024-25 season, earning a brief benching, spending some time on the fourth line, and failing to score a goal in his first 15 games.
It was a quick learning curve for Gauthier, however, as similarly to Carlsson, he began to understand what it takes on a shift-by-shift basis to make an impact in the NHL (even when pucks aren’t finding the back of the net) around the time of the 4 Nations break.
He finished the season fifth in Calder Trophy voting and produced 44 points (20-24=44), playing in all 82 games, including 22 points (11-11=22) in his final 27 games.
Gauthier found ways to weaponize his speed, become an impactful forechecker, and find soft ice away from the puck, especially down the stretch when paired on a line with Carlsson.
Gauthier represented the United States at the World Championships after the season and finished sixth on his team in scoring with nine points (5-4=9) in ten games en route to a gold medal.
Gauthier is expected to quickly become one of the NHL’s premier goal scorers, and if Verbeek were to get him inked to a long-term, seven or eight-year deal at under $8 or 9 million, that contract would likely prove a bargain in short order.
Author’s Prediction: 6 Years, $8.16 million AAV (Signed in the days between the 2026 NHL Draft and Free Agency)
After playing “hardball” in the past with RFAs coming off of ELCs, Gauthier is another player with whom it’s plausible for Verbeek to break his pattern and not let negotiations last too far into the summer, especially with the commitment already shown to the young forward.
This contract could be compared to that of Matthew Knies, who just extended with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Gauthier has the draft pedigree advantage over Knies and had a more prestigious college career. If he can produce at a similar rate to Knies’ 2024-25 campaign, it’s easy to envision Gauthier’s contract eclipsing the one Knies recently signed.
This contract ties together the fates of perhaps the Ducks’ two most important forwards, forwards whose chemistry looks to only further blossom, and will afford the Ducks and Gauthier’s camp the same benefits as with Carlsson. However, with Carlsson’s longer runway to this point and that Carlsson plays a more premium position, it’s difficult to see a scenario in which his cap hit is eclipsed by Gauthier’s.
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Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images