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    THN Boston Staff
    THN Boston Staff
    Oct 10, 2023, 12:00

    THN Boston's Joe Pohoryles and Belle Fraser each give their three keys to the Boston Bruins season

    THN Boston's Joe Pohoryles and Belle Fraser each give their three keys to the Boston Bruins season

    Dennis Schneidler-USA TODAY Sports - Boston Bruins 2023-24 Projection: Three Keys to the Season and Worst Case Scenario

    Boston Bruins

    Last year: 65-12-5, 1st in the Atlantic (lost in the Eastern Conference First Round to the Florida Panthers)

    Projected: 2nd in the Atlantic Division

    Atlantic Division Projection:

    *Rankings calculated by KEVIN, a predictive learning model created by Rachel Doerrie

    1. Toronto Maple Leafs

    2. Boston Bruins

    3. Florida Panthers

    4. Tampa Bay Lightning

    5. Buffalo Sabres

    6. Ottawa Senators

    7. Detroit Red Wings

    8. Montreal Canadiens

    Keys to the Season

    First Key:

    Belle Fraser: Ullmark and Swayman pick up where they left off

    While the Bruins’ forward group has a different look this season, much of the 2022-23 back end stayed intact. Most notably, the formidable goaltender duo of Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman returned for 2023-24. Ullmark is coming off a Vezina season, where he had a league-best 1.89 goals against average and .938 save percentage. Swayman ranked fourth in GAA (2.27) and save percentage (.920) while going 24-6-4. The consistency and stability between the two netminders was a cornerstone of last year’s historic regular season, and the Bruins will need that shutdown goaltending again.

    Joe Pohoryles: Zacha and Coyle replace Bergeron and Krejci

    It’s impossible to replace Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci’s 1-2 punch up the middle for the last two decades, but Pavel Zacha and Charlie Coyle are tasked to do just that. If they can play to their potential and have their wings fill the gaps, the Bruins will be in better shape than most anticipate. If not, things could get hairy.

    Second Key: 

    Pohoryles: Grzelcyk re-establishes himself in the top four

    Matt Grzelcyk is set to be reunited with Charlie McAvoy on the Bruins’ top pair. The 29-year-old left-shot took a back seat after the arrival of trade deadline acquisition Dmitry Orlov in the spring, and Grzelcyk’s playoff performance in past years has raised concerns about his ability to hold up on a top pair. In a contract year, Grzelcyk rising to the occasion over the course of this season would go a long way for Boston.

    Fraser: DeBrusk matches last season’s production in contract year.

    Jake DeBrusk made his intention to stay in Boston clear, and now he has to try to make it a no-brainer for management. The 26-year-old winger’s 50 points (27 goals, 23 assists) in 2022-23 were a career-high. He could’ve hit the 30-goal mark if he played all 82 games. DeBrusk must have an immediate impact on the score sheet and make up for the offensive production lost from players like Bergeron and Taylor Hall. DeBrusk is facing free agency and has the opportunity to cement himself as an intangible piece of the Bruins’ future.

    Third Key: 

    Fraser: The Forbort-Shattenkirk pair is not a liability

    The presumed third defensive pair of Derek Forbort and Kevin Shattenkirk has been one of the lowlights of training camp. While Bruins coach Jim Montgomery said Forbort has been working back from a lower-body injury, his first two preseason games have been sloppy. Shattenkirk hasn’t shown much of a spark either, but the Bruins will need reliable depth defending this season. If that pair can’t provide it, there’s a handful of youngsters chomping at the bit to prove they can – namely Mason Lohrei. The NHL experience is helpful, but the level of play must be heightened for Forbort and Shattenkirk. 

    Pohoryles: Youth movement accelerates reboot

    Strong training camp performances from 19-year-old Matt Poitras and 22-year-old Johnny Beecher saw both forwards earning surprise NHL spots. Add in Lohrei as a top prospect expected to see NHL time this year, and Boston could benefit from low-cost, entry-level players exceeding their cap value, despite pulling from one of the thinnest prospect pools in the NHL.

    Most-likely Scenario 

    The Bruins ride their top-tier goalie tandem, solid defensive core and David Pastrnak’s scoring prowess to a playoff spot, despite their losses up front.

    Worst-case Scenario

    The Zacha-Coyle center experiment falls flat, Linus Ullmark plummets back to Earth and Boston misses the playoffs for the first time since 2015-16.