Where Does Patrick Kane Fit in for the Detroit Red Wings, and What Risks and Questions Persist Ahead of His Season Debut?
As his debut nears, let's take a moment to consider where and how Patrick Kane can help the Red Wings
Patrick Kane is a Detroit Red Wing.
In June of 2015, as the Chicago Blackhawks collected their third Stanley Cup in six seasons with Kane in a starring role, that would've sounded preposterous. Even as those Blackhawks faded from Cup contention to tanking for Connor Bedard, it hardly seemed as though the Red Wings—mired in a prolonged spell of their own irrelevance—would be a place where Kane might see out his golden years chasing one last championship.
Now, in December of 2023, "Patrick Kane is a Detroit Red Wing" sounds like old news, even as he's yet to appear in an actual game. So, as the novelty fades into reality, with Kane poised to debut in the Winged Wheel tonight against the San Jose Sharks, let's take a moment to consider his potential value and fit in Detroit.
Level Setting
“If he’s healthy, he can help us a lot," said Steve Yzerman at Kane's introductory press conference a week ago. "Even if he’s what he was last year [57 points in 73 games], that’s not bad. We expect him to be better than what he was last year, closer to what he was two years ago [92 points in 78 games], then he could really help us.”
In that initial conditional statement, Yzerman summated the fundamental uncertainty and promise of what Kane can bring to the Red Wings. The track record is there, but the offseason hip resurfacing is the elephant in the room. Detroit's GM went on to describe the winger as a "creative, playmaking forward" who can provided plenty of value with his power play acumen.
To apply Yzerman's logic, in a vacuum, 57 points from a player who is earning $2.75 million would be excellent value, so if we do indeed take last year's production as a floor, there is reason to be optimistic about his contributions.
But, of course, because of Kane's prolonged run as one of the great postseason performers of the 21st century, it's difficult not to raise expectations beyond that, even in the face of hip resurfacing surgery.
During Tuesday night's broadcast of the Red Wings 5-3 win over the Buffalo Sabres, ESPN showed an interview between Kane and Emily Kaplan at intermission.
Kaplan asked the winger whether he still considers himself one of the best players in the league, to which Kane responded, "I mean, yeah, when I'm feeling healthy and feeling good, yeah of course. The last year I don't think I was, but even before that, I put up 92 points in a season, so yeah, I feel like I can get back to that level."
[embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vlb9YhPlKO4[/embed]
In that sentiment, Kane himself encapsulated the sense that it's hard not to get a bit carried away when thinking of what he can bring to the Red Wings, simply because of the player he's been.
Kane has 138 career playoff points, sixth most among active players. His 1,237 career regular season points rank fourth among active players. Yes, all of that came before major hip surgery, and yes, well there have been more recent postseason cameos, he hasn't made it past the first round since 2015, but still, it's impossible to shake the memory of what Kane once was in projecting his value today.
The Risks and Questions
With all that said and those uncertain but lofty expectations named, it's hard to overstate the degree of difficulty of what Kane is attempting to do, and recent history isn't on his side.
In an interview with The Athletic's Sean Gentille published yesterday, Dr. Edwin Su (who performed Kane's operation) said Kane "really is, like, kind of freakish. He’s just blowing it out of the water. Things that we expected to be accomplished by three months, he did in six weeks. Things that we expected in four months, he did at two months. He’s basically accelerated the timeline by almost a half.”
That's encouraging, but it also sounds like the exact way any doctor would describe a recent high-profile operation on an aging star looking to prolong his career. It seems highly unlikely that Dr. Su would cast any doubt on the potential of Kane's comeback, so it's difficult to know how much to trust his bullish outlook.
Kane himself acknowledged Monday that working back into the lineup will be something of a process: "It might take some games to get up to speed and just playing at this level, so if it takes a couple weeks, that's what it is."
Lalonde offered a similar assessment on Wednesday afternoon, saying "We'll be smart with how we use him. I don't know if he's ready for a regular shift. I think we'll monitor it. We'll probably have a target minute-wise with what we want to do with him."
That sounds like the correct approach to re-integrating Kane into NHL action and managing his workload, but it does little to assuage the broader doubts concerning just how feasible it is for a player in his mid-30s, even a star player, to come back from an operation this significant.
Yzerman made the point last week that Kane's greatest gift has always been his hockey sense rather than his physical tools, and, in theory, that tactical intelligence shouldn't fade with age. However, you could have made the same point about Nicklas Backstrom, and Backstrom's comeback has (so far) lasted just 47 games at a much worse rate of productivity than he'd previously enjoyed. The longtime Capitals center is currently on a leave of absence that hasn't yet been called a retirement but appears headed in that direction.
Even setting injury aside (which feels a massive variable to leave out, considering the circumstances), there are legitimate questions to be asked about Kane's 200-foot impacts.
Over the summer, I described Alex DeBrincat as a decisive player but not an influential one—given his relatively meager play-driving impacts but high rate of point production. Kane—even healthy—is a more extreme example of that dynamic. He has always been productive, but his five-on-five impacts (especially his defensive impacts) leave more than a little to be desired.
From that reality, the question begs: What will Kane, a player who in his prime was a far cry from Pavel Datsyuk in the defensive third of the rink, look like in his own zone and away from the puck after major surgery?
What We Know So Far
At yesterday's post-practice media availability, Lalonde explained that Kane's role tonight will likely come on a line with Alex DeBrincat and a rotating cast of centers at five-on-five, along with some power play minutes.
DeBrincat scored 72 times from a Patrick Kane assist during their time together in Chicago, so he is an obvious candidate as a line-mate. Meanwhile, at Monday's practice, that center was Joe Veleno, but Lalonde has lauded Veleno for the way he's lightened Dylan Larkin's load since assuming top line left wing duties in recent games, so perhaps it's unlikely Veleno takes on that role this evening.
In theory, J.T. Compher would seem like a natural compliment to a Kane-DeBrincat winger pairing. Compher's speed and defensive responsibility could help cover for whatever rust Kane needs to knock off this evening.
Whoever plays with Kane, speed would seem to be paramount. Regardless of the state of his hip, Kane's greatest strength is probably his ability to orchestrate passing sequences that result in a low volume of high quality chances. To make that work, Kane needs line-mates who will skate into space, where he can find them with the puck. (In this regard, Veleno would also make some amount of sense).
Meanwhile, on Monday, Kane also practiced at the right flanker spot with the first power play unit, a role he has played throughout his prolific career. The power play feels like the area where Kane can have the biggest and most immediate impact. While he has been a capable puck carrier and entry specialist with the man advantage throughout his career, he won't necessarily need to do that playing with the likes of Dylan Larkin, DeBrincat, or Compher. As such, it should provide a phase of play where Kane can show off his hands, hockey sense, and playmaking without needing to exert himself too much up and down the ice.
Where Does That Leave Us, or How Much Will Kane Help Detroit?
The prevailing wisdom around Kane's one-year contract has been that, from a Detroit perspective, it carries almost no risk. The Red Wings had the cap space to make the deal work, and even if the signing proves utterly disastrous, it involves no long-term commitment.
In broad strokes, I agree with all of that, but that does discount the possibility of Kane's signing bringing about detrimental short-term effects for the Red Wings, who remain in the thick of the hotly competitive Eastern Conference playoff race.
Lalonde said yesterday that "a big part of our success to date has been our depth," and he's commented previously on the need for collective commitment to a stingy, aggressive forechecking approach to compensate for the lack of a 120-point scorer in the lineup who can swing a game in the team's favor even on an off-night for the group.
It's a bet Detroit made over the summer in acceptance of the fact that poor lottery luck meant that kind of transcendent talent wasn't going to come from the team's rebuild. This team couldn't simply pluck such a player out of thin air, but via free agency, it could reinforce its depth by adding proven NHLers to plug into depth roles as it waited for its prospects to mature. Through about a quarter of the season, that bet has paid off handsomely, with the Wings currently second in the Atlantic Division by points percentage.
However, at this stage in his career, Kane isn't that 120-point scorer (and in fact his career high in points is 110 in '19-20) who can flip a game on its heels, but his profile also doesn't exactly gel with the style of play that's yielded positive results for the Red Wings to this point in the season. He isn't a hard-checking worker bee on the forecheck, and, to be clear, that's not what Lalonde and staff will ask of him.
Still, it does raise the question of just how much Kane has to score for him to be an overall additive. On nights when he doesn't find his way onto the scoresheet, will he be able to do anything that helps the Red Wings win hockey games?
The idea of a team alleviating defensive exceptions for a uniquely gifted attacking player is nothing novel in the NHL, but, for that to be a worthwhile trade-off, Kane can't just be a decent scorer. That's not to say he has to recapture his 2015 form to make good on this deal, but if he can't get anywhere close to that, it's fair to wonder whether Detroit wouldn't be better off with its present depth pieces, which can't touch Kane's upside but have filled their roles admirably throughout the season to date.
So, in the end, the existential question hovering over Kane's debut and signing in Hockeytown concerns his health and sustainability, but, even if he answers that successfully, he will still have to prove that he fits into a larger system for the Red Wings that, in 24 games without him, has been functioning better than just about anyone expected.
Further Reading
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