A dive into the underlying numbers from last night's 3-2 Red Wings' win in Anaheim
A dive into the underlying numbers from last night's 3-2 Red Wings' win in Anaheim
Last night in Anaheim, the Detroit Red Wings completed a clean sweep through California by knocking off the Ducks 3-2. Let's take a closer look at the underlying numbers that defined the game.
The Big Picture
-By all situations expected goals (as tabulated by MoneyPuck), the Ducks were the better team Sunday evening, earning a 3.38-2.71 advantage by xG. The Red Wings played a strong first period after Trevor Zegras scored just 20 seconds in for the home team. By the end of the first, Detroit led 1.134-0.652 by xG.
However, after Joe Veleno scored 2:20 into the second, Anaheim more or less dominated the rest of the way. By the end of the second, the Ducks had built a 2.971-1.583 edge in xG, which would hold through the third.
-Per Natural Stat Trick, at five-a-side, the Red Wings earned a 43.66% CorsiFor, a 53.33% share of scoring chances, a 52.94% share of high-danger chances, and a 46.23% share of xG. The below heat map of five-on-five unblocked shots shows that this was not a game with a ton of offense in either direction.
Still, it must be said that Detroit was the inferior team at five-on-five, and it was special teams that made the difference. The Red Wings went one for five on the power play, while holding the Ducks scoreless in four tries (including a five on three).
The below heat map shows Detroit's PP chance creation, and, as you can see, the Red Wings were able to dial up considerable pressure on the Anaheim PK, even if they could only convert once.
Meanwhile, this map of the Ducks' power play shows that it's not as though Anaheim created a ton of chances while failing to score; instead, the Detroit PK did good work to corral them.
On this occasion (as tends to be the case when speaking of small samples), Detroit got the win thanks to a clear advantage in goaltending and special teams.
Individual Impacts
-For the second consecutive game, exactly five Red Wings finished at a 50% share of five-on-five on-ice xG or better. They were J.T. Compher (70.56%), Olli Maatta (83.61%), Shayne Gostisbehere (84.21%), Alex DeBrincat (84.74%), and Patrick Kane (87.5%). Of those five, DeBrincat and Gostisbehere are the only two who also pulled that feat off Thursday against the Kings.
-Dylan Larkin led the way offensively for Detroit. He played 17:53 (just fourth among Red Wing forwards and seventh overall), scored a goal, put five shots on net, won nine of 15 face-offs, and led the team (by almost a full xG) in individual expected goals at 1.34.
-Though Detroit returned to a standard 12 forward-seven defensemen lineup, the Red Wings continued to mix and match a good deal amongst the forward group. Only two lines finished at more than four minutes of ice time together at five-on-five.
The first such unit was Lucas Raymond, Larkin, and David Perron, who played 8:58, earning a 41.1% share of on-ice xG but being outscored 1-0 in those minutes. The other was DeBrincat-Compher-Kane—playing 8:21 together to the tune of an exemplary 80.0% share of on-ice xG.
That trio still hasn't quite found its offensive rhythm, but this performance was a clear step in the right direction as far as play-driving is concerned, and, given their skill, the goals should follow.
Larkin's excellent offensive night and Compher's strong overall performance offer a positive indication that those two have returned to the excellent form they enjoyed prior to their respective December injuries.
-On the back end, Gostisbehere and Maatta were the best Detroit defense pair by some distance. In 11:19 together, they were on the ice for 0.306 xG for compared to just 0.06 against.
Both the Jake Walman-Moritz Seider (13:26 at five-on-five) and Ben Chiarot-Jeff Petry (11:37 at five-on-five) pairings were slightly underwater by xG and finished the night having been on the ice for a goal for and a goal against. Walman and Seider earned a 44.9% share of on-ice xG, while Chiarot and Petry were just behind at 43.6%.
-The line of Zegras, Adam Henrique, and Troy Terry caused Detroit major problems all night. You might expect a line populated by Zegras (the league's preeminent embodiment of youth and skill) and Terry (another player with dazzling hands) to give back a lot of the offense they create in the other direction. However, instead, the line completely controlled play in 8:31 together at five-on-five, posting an exemplary 79.5% share of on-ice xG and outscoring the Red Wings 2-0 in their minutes.
-Finally, Alex Lyon was excellent in the Detroit net. He stopped 29 of 31 shots, giving up two goals on 3.379 xG for a Goals Saved Above Expected of 1.38. With another excellent performance, Lyon continued to solidify his claim to the starting role, regardless of Ville Husso's health.
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