A dive into the underlying numbers from the Red Wings 5-1 home defeat to the Ottawa Senators
A dive into the underlying numbers from the Red Wings 5-1 home defeat to the Ottawa Senators
On Saturday night at Little Caesars Arena, the Detroit Red Wings fell 5-1 to the Ottawa Senators in a game that felt much less significant than a first period injury to Dylan Larkin, who fell to the ice unconscious after cross checks from Mathieu Joseph and Parker Kelly. After starting the game with 11 forwards, then losing Larkin to injury and David Perron to an ejection in the aftermath, Detroit was left with just nine forwards and struggled to remain competitive as a result. Let's take a look at the underlying numbers that defined the Red Wings' defeat.
The Big Picture
-By all situations expected goals as tabulated by MoneyPuck, this was a closer game than the final score suggested and also closer than this game felt in the third period. Detroit actually emerged from the first with a 1.78-1.513 edge in xG, but over the final 40 minutes, the undermanned Red Wings couldn't quite keep up the pace.
-Over the course of the night, Ottawa was decidedly the better team at five-on-five. The Red Wings managed just a 40.86% CorsiFor, a 44.19% share of scoring chances, a 40.0% share of high-danger chances, and a 46.19% share of expected goals (all figures courtesy of Natural Stat Trick).
The below five-on-five shot attempt heat map (also from NST) shows that the Senators did their damage more through shot volume than shot quality, but their advantage is clear nonetheless.
Individual Impacts
-Throughout the night, Patrick Kane (who scored Detroit's lone goal) and Alex DeBrincat (who had the primary assist on that goal) were by some distance the most dangerous Red Wings on the ice.
DeBrincat led the team in individual xG contributions (0.71), and Kane was third (0.39). The pair was also first and second in five-on-five ice time among Red Wing forwards, with DeBrincat at 15:15 and Kane at 14:07.
After Larkin and Perron exited the game, the Red Wings were left to rely on three regular forward lines. The first of those was Joe Veleno between Kane and DeBrincat, and it was by a considerable distance Detroit's best. In 9:41 together, the trio owned an 0.526-0.227 advantage in on-ice xG, an excellent 65.3% share. The line probably should have scored at five-on-five but couldn't quite find the right combination to do so.
Kane finished the night having played 19:53 in all situations. Considering the Red Wings were down to nine forwards, that's not a ridiculous number, but it's also not an insignificant one for a player still finding his game legs after a six-month lay-off.
Kane led Detroit by GameScore (a metric that seeks to provide an overall accounting of a player's in-game impact by adding up a slew of micro-stats and possession figures), and it was his "Production" category (defined as player points and individual actions) that gave him such a positive mark. Simply put, Kane made things happen, and, once again, that's an encouraging sign considering he is playing in just his second game of the year.
-Detroit's other two lines did not fare so well. Robby Fabbri, Andrew Copp, and Lucas Raymond finished the night with a 25.6% share of on-ice xG in 7:46 together, and Michael Rasmussen, Christian Fischer, and Daniel Sprong were only slightly better at 29.0% in 6:44.
-On the back end, in managing seven defenders, the Red Wings used three regular pairings then had Shayne Gostisbehere play a little bit with everybody.
Jake Walman and Moritz Seider manned Detroit's busiest five-on-five pair (just one game after being separated during the Red Wings' Thursday defeat to the San Jose Sharks). The duo played 11:08 together and earned an exemplary 90.0% share of on-ice xG in what were low-event minutes.
Ben Chiarot and Jeff Petry played 9:09 together at five-on-five and came out above water for their troubles, earning a 54.6% share of on-ice xG. Olli Maatta and Justin Holl struggled in 5:45 together at five-on-five, posting just a 34.8% share. Meanwhile, Gostisbehere played 3:00 with Maatta, 2:18 with Petry, 2:17 with Holl, 2:07 with Walman, 1:43 with Chiarot, and 1:35 with Seider.
This usage is a bit different than what we've seen in the past when the Red Wings use seven defensemen, where there has tended to be more mixing and matching across the whole D corps as opposed to just one player rotating through partners over the course of the game.
-Finally, in goal, this was a night to forget for Alex Lyon. Lyon was lifted after the second period, having given up four goals on 25 shots and 2.945 xG for a Goals Saved Above Expected of -1.06.
The Senators seemed to cause Lyon headaches all night by getting traffic to the front of the net, which was on clear display during Claude Giroux's power play goal in the game's opening minutes.
These xG stats don't account for traffic at the net, so that is perhaps one area where the numbers are a bit harsh on Lyon.
Lyon's season numbers, however, remain excellent (4-2-0, a .931 save percentage, and a 2.13 goals against average), so hopefully Saturday night proves an outlier as the season progresses.
He was due for a difficult start after being so dominant in his previous five Red Wing appearances. Lyon also earned the secondary assist on Kane's goal, which can serve as something of a silver lining in an otherwise disappointing effort.
With that said, Lyon's (relative) stinker does make Detroit's goaltending situation a bit murky.
James Reimer relieved him in the third period—his first game action since mid-November. After the game, Derek Lalonde said the switch was not about benching Lyon so much as getting Reimer some reps, which he intends to do more of in the not-too-distant future.
Meanwhile, Ville Husso—Detroit's ostensible starter—has been struggling himself of late, so, for the moment, there isn't really a "hot hand" option for Lalonde in net.