A dive into the underlying numbers from last night's 5-4 Red Wings' loss to the Dallas Stars
A dive into the underlying numbers from last night's 5-4 Red Wings' loss to the Dallas Stars
Last night, a disastrous second period (conceding four goals and 25 shots) undid the Detroit Red Wings in a 5-4 defeat at the hands of the Dallas Stars. For a closer look at how it all shook out, let's dive into the underlying numbers from the defeat.
The Big Picture
-By all situations expected goals (per MoneyPuck), Dallas earned a 3.62-2.43 advantage. That advantage was derived primarily from a dominant second period, in which the Stars posted a 1.756-0.383 edge by xG and earned a 62.26% share of all situations expected goals.
-Over the course of the game at five-on-five (per Natural Stat Trick), the Red Wings managed a 47.37% CorsiFor, a 50% share of scoring chances, a 33.33% share of high-danger chances, and a 37.74% share of expected goals.
Those latter two figures (which you can see played out in the below heat map of unblocked five-on-five shots) are especially striking. Even though the Red Wings won the first and third periods, Detroit was dominated at five-on-five last night throughout the game, with Dallas far better at creating quality offense than their hosts.
After all, the Red Wings did not manage to score at five-a-side all night, instead relying on three power play goals and a six-on-five strike to hang around.
Individual Impacts
-Just three Red Wings finished the night over a 50% share of on-ice xG at five-on-five: Shayne Gostsibehere (52.87%), Justin Holl (52.7%), and Dylan Larkin (50.68%).
-This was a difficult night for Alex Lyon in net amidst what has generally been an excellent month of January. Lyon made 27 saves on 32 shots and was lifted for James Reimer after two periods.
By the eye test, it certainly didn't look like Lyon's sharpest performance, with several of the goals he conceded seeming to sneak through him, unable to stop the puck despite getting a healthy piece of it. The numbers support this conclusion. Lyon faced 2.908 xG and conceded five times for a -2.09 Goals Saved Above Expected.
Still, this doesn't strike me as any sort of cause to worry about Lyon's form, especially as it cannot be separated from the context of such a poor defensive second period for Detroit.
-The Red Wings' top line of David Perron, Larkin, and Lucas Raymond struggled to get any meaningful offense going. They played 8:14 together at five-on-five but managed to create just 0.083 xG's worth of offense. They were relatively stingy the other way (0.264 xG against), but they did also concede a goal.
As Detroit chased the game in the third, Derek Lalonde did reunite the Alex DeBrincat-Larkin-Raymond trio with which it found great success at the start of the season. Those three played 4:10 together at five-on-five (obviously a small sample), but they were quite successful, earning an 0.123-0.019 edge in on-ice xG. It will be interesting to see whether Lalonde opts to keep that trio together moving forward past this loss.
-Throughout the month of January, the Red Wings' third line of Michael Rasmussen, Andrew Copp, and Christian Fischer has been their best and most consistent. It was a brilliant night for that trio against the Stars, but they did create more offense than any other Detroit line (0.315 xG in 11:04 together at five-on-five). That offense did come at just a 36.0% share of on-ice xG.
-On the back end, it was an extremely difficult night for Olli Maatta and Jeff Petry, who carried a heavy load at 16:14 together but struggled to support it. They earned just a 25.3% share of on-ice xG and conceded once without being on the ice for a goal.
Also from THN Detroit
Red Wings 4, Stars 5: Porous Second Period Sinks Detroit
How Sustainable is the Red Wings' January Success?
Alex Lyon Driving Detroit's Hot January
Marco Kasper Named AHL Player of the Week
Lalonde Credits Practice Time for January Red Wings' Defensive Turn Around