Chiarot and Holl continue to shine, the top six stands tall and the bottom six struggles, a closer review of James Reimer's up-and-down night, and other statistical observations from the Red Wings' loss to the Florida Panthers Thursday
The Red Wings suffered a frustrating 2-0 loss to the Florida Panthers on home ice Thursday night in Detroit. Here's a look into some of the numbers that defined that game.
The Big Picture
-Per MoneyPuck, by all situations expected goals, the Red Wings fell 3.07-2.26.
In the first period, it was a defensive struggle, with minimal separation between the two combatants. In the second, Detroit began to find its game and took a temporary lead on xG, only for James Reimer to give up a bad goal in the final minute. The Red Wings built up a bit of momentum in the third but never found an equalizer, allowing Anton Lundell to ice the game with an empty netter.
-Per Natural Stat Trick, at five-on-five, Detroit earned a 44.83% share of shots, a 35.48% share of scoring chances, a 42.86% share of high danger chances, and a 47.61% share of expected goals, which is to say the Panthers controlled this game at five-on-five.
As the below heat map shows, this wasn't a game that featured a ton of offense, but the offense Florida created was from reasonably high value real estate, while the Red Wings proved less able to generate offense from the slot.
Individual Impacts
-Dylan Lakrin, Alex DeBrincat, and Daniel Sprong led the way for Detroit in terms of individual expected goals, but, as you can see, none of that trio managed an especially high total.
-At five-on-five, Detroit's top six had a reasonably successful night, while the bottom six struggled. The top line (DeBrincat, Larkin, and Lucas Raymond) played 9:58 at five-on-five—putting up 0.747 xG for and conceding 0.52 xG against for a 59.0% share of on-ice xG. The second line (David Perron, Andrew Copp, and J.T. Compher) was similarly effective if a bit more defensive—posting 0.391 xG for and allowing 0.29 xG against for a 57.4% share in 7:38 together.
In the bottom six, things weren't so smooth. The third line (Michael Rasmussen, Joe Veleno, and Daniel Sprong) were slightly underwater—0.316 xG for and 0.342 xG against for a 48.1% share. The fourth line (Klim Kostin, Austin Czarnik, and Christian Fischer) struggled mightily—0.006 xG for and 0.093 xG against for a 6.1% share of on-ice xG. That figure is of course skewed by their relatively light workload and the low totals in both directions.
-On defense, Ben Chiarot and Justin Holl were Detroit's top performing pair. In 14:28 together at five-on-five, they were on the ice for 0.833 xG for and just 0.352 xG against. That rounds out to a 70.3% share.
The other two pairs...did not fare so well. Shayne Gostisbehere and Olli Maatta played 10:39 together at five-on-five. In that time, they conceded 0.599 xG and racked up just 0.265 xG for, adding up to a 30.7% share.
For Moritz Seider and Jake Walman, things were even bleaker. That duo played 8:38 together at five a side, and they posted 0.123 xG for while allowing 0.479 xG against for a 20.4% share.
It's somewhat interesting that Seider and Walman were the least busy of Detroit's three regular pairs at five-on-five, but Seider still wound up the team's leader in ice time for the game at 23 minutes even.
For the forwards and defense, some of these crooked numbers are best explained by the relatively low offensive totals for both teams at even strength throughout the night. Nonetheless, this was far from a banner night at five-on-five for the Red Wings.
-For Florida, the most productive line was Matthew Tkachuk, Anton Lundell, and Carter Verhaege, but they were actually underwater once you factored in their defense. The trio put up a team high 0.529 xG for, but they allowed 0.763 xG against.
-In net, James Reimer's night is a bit complicated by the numbers. At a macro level, he allowed one goal on 2.017 xG for a Goals Saved Above Expected of 1.02—not too shabby and in fact even a strong performance.
However, his one goal against was nothing short of disastrous. MoneyPuck estimated the Steven Lorentz shot that beat him as having a 1.5% chance of going in, prizing the chance at just 0.016 xG. This dynamic calls attention to the limitations of a metric like Goals Saved Above Expected in a one-game sample, particularly when it comes to a low-scoring one-game sample.
Simply put, you need a save there—especially considering it was the final minute of a period. It wasn't a bad night for Reimer as such, and it wouldn't be fair to pin the loss squarely on his back, but in a one-goal game, the difference was a disastrous concession from Reimer.
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